比特币（BTC）价格预测：当前下降到上升渠道以下会导致看跌突破吗？

在我们先前对比特币价格的分析（4月4日）中，我们：

In our previous analysis of Bitcoin’s price (dated 4 April), we:

在我们先前对比特币价格的分析（4月4日）中，我们：

* outlined a long-term ascending channel (marked by blue lines);

*概述了一个长期升渠道（以蓝线为标记）；

* noted signs suggesting a potential bearish breakout below the channel’s lower boundary.

*指出的迹象表明，在通道下边界以下下方可能存在潜在的看跌突破。

Since then, bears indeed managed to push the price (as shown by the arrow) below the channel’s lower line – driven by a broader sell-off in risk assets amid mounting concerns over a global recession, fuelled by trade wars and the introduction of international tariffs.

从那时起，熊确实设法推动了频道下部线以下的价格（如箭头所示），这是由于贸易战和国际关税引起的全球经济衰退的越来越多的危机驱动。

But what does the BTC/USD chart tell us today?

但是BTC/USD图表今天告诉我们什么？

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD Today

BTC/USD的技术分析

maximal

最大

So far, bears have failed to capitalise on the break below support. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is trading above the former breakout level, which may suggest that bulls are regaining control. If the previous bearish breakout was indeed false, this raises the possibility of a genuine breakout above resistance (marked by line R). This scenario would pave the way for a continuation of the long-term uptrend on the BTC/USD chart and reinforce the relevance of the ascending channel – as highlighted by a divergence on the RSI indicator.

到目前为止，熊还没有利用低于支持的休息时间。目前，比特币的价格正在超过以前的突破水平，这可能表明公牛正在恢复控制。如果以前的看跌突破确实是错误的，那么这会使真正的突破超过阻力（以r线为标志）。这种情况将为BTC/USD图表上的长期上升趋势的延续并增强上升渠道的相关性铺平道路 - 正如RSI指标的分歧所强调的那样。

Will the bullish scenario play out? Much will depend on the underlying fundamentals. It’s worth noting that the ongoing crisis in the US bond market (linked to Trump’s tariff policies) could create a favourable backdrop for further bullish momentum. Or, in the words of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in a post on X, it may signal the start of “only up” mode for Bitcoin’s price.

看涨的场景会发挥作用吗？很大程度上取决于基本的基本面。值得注意的是，美国债券市场正在进行的危机（与特朗普的关税政策有关）可能会为进一步看涨的动力创造一个有利的背景。或者，用Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes的文章中的帖子中的帖子，它可能以比特币的价格表示“仅”模式的开始。

FXOpen offers the world’s most popular cryptocurrency CFDs*, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Floating spreads, 1:2 leverage — at your service. Open your trading account now or learn more about crypto CFD trading with FXOpen.

FXOPEN提供了世界上最受欢迎的加密货币CFDS*，包括比特币和以太坊。浮动差，1：2杠杆作用 - 在您的服务中。立即开设您的交易帐户，或者使用FXOPEN了解有关Crypto CFD交易的更多信息。

*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.

*重要：在英国Fxopen，通过CFD进行加密货币交易仅适用于我们的专业客户。它们不可用于零售客户的交易。要了解有关这可能如何影响您的更多信息，请与我们的团队取得联系。

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

本文代表了仅在FXOPEN品牌下运营的公司的意见。就FXOPEN品牌运营的公司提供的产品和服务而言，它不应被解释为要约，招标或建议，也不被视为财务建议。