比特幣（BTC）價格預測：加密貨幣市場是否會繼續看漲？

隨著全球市場對貿易緊張局勢的反應，比特幣面臨著動蕩的價格行動，在急劇下降和籃板之間擺動

Bitcoin faced a turbulent week with sharp drops and rebounds, swinging between new lows and attempts to rally back above the $80,000 range. The cryptocurrency has been largely moving in lockstep with U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, spurring questions about its effectiveness as a safe haven asset during this economic downturn.

比特幣面臨著一個動蕩的一周，有急劇的下降和籃板，在新的低點之間擺動，並試圖將重新集結到80,000美元的範圍上。加密貨幣在很大程度上與美國股票（尤其是納斯達克股票）陷入困境，這激發了有關其在這種經濟衰退期間作為避風港資產的有效性的問題。

However, some positive signs have emerged for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Data from Santiment indicates that the number of Bitcoin “sharks” (holders of over 10 BTC) increased significantly, with more than 132 new wallets appearing in a 24-hour period.

但是，比特幣愛好者出現了一些積極的跡象。 Santiment的數據表明，比特幣“鯊魚”（超過10 BTC的持有人）的數量顯著增加，在24小時內出現了132多個新錢包。

More notably, CryptoQuant data revealed a massive transfer of approximately 48,575 BTC, valued at around $3.6 billion, flowing into accumulation addresses. This marks the largest such movement since 2022 and may signal growing confidence among wealthy investors.

更值得注意的是，加密數據顯示，大約48,575 BTC的大規模轉移，價值約36億美元，流向累積地址。這標誌著自2022年以來最大的運動，並可能表明富裕投資者的信心越來越大。

This accumulation activity suggests that despite short-term price volatility, larger investors might be taking a longer-term bullish stance on Bitcoin's prospects. This view is further supported by the rapid recovery above the $80,000 mark, which appears to have quickly restored confidence that was shaken when prices fell below this threshold for the second consecutive time.

這種積累活動表明，儘管短期價格波動，但較大的投資者可能會對比特幣的前景採取長期看漲立場。高於80,000美元的快速恢復進一步支持了這種觀點，這似乎已經迅速恢復了，當價格連續第二次下跌以下時，這種信心就被動搖了。

The recent price action is closely watched by technical analysts who see Bitcoin approaching what many consider a decisive phase that could determine its medium-term direction. Some technical indicators present mixed signals. The Ichimoku cloud is approaching a bearish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), having dropped below average, shows signs of a potential bullish divergence. Many analysts suggest that maintaining levels above $81,500 will be crucial for continuing the bullish trend.

技術分析師密切關注了最近的價格行動，他們看到比特幣接近許多人認為可以決定其中期方向的決定性階段。一些技術指標呈現混合信號。 Ichimoku Cloud接近看跌的交叉，而相對強度指數（RSI）降至平均水平以下，顯示出潛在的看漲差異的跡象。許多分析師認為，維持高於81,500美元的水平對於繼續看漲趨勢至關重要。

The analysis of options expiry data for April 11 revealed the expiration of roughly 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a total value of approximately $2.26 billion. The put/call ratio stood at 0.88, indicating a relatively balanced mix of bearish and bullish positions among traders.

對期權到期數據的分析顯示，大約28,000個比特幣期權合約到期，總價值約為22.6億美元。前/呼叫比率為0.88，表明貿易商之間看跌和看跌的位置相對平衡。

These options had a “max pain” point of $81,500 – the price level at which the most contracts would expire worthless. Interestingly, open interest remained high at both the $70,000 and $100,000 strike prices, reflecting the divided sentiment among market participants. Some traders expect further price declines, while others anticipate a recovery that could push Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. This split in market sentiment is evident in the varying predictions, showcasing the uncertainty created by recent macroeconomic developments.

這些選項的“最大痛苦”點為81,500美元 - 最多合同到期的價格水平毫無價值。有趣的是，開放式利息仍然很高，以70,000美元和100,000美元的打擊價格，這反映了市場參與者之間的分歧。一些交易者預計價格會進一步下降，而另一些交易者則預計可以將比特幣推向100,000美元的回收率。在不同的預測中可以明顯看出這種市場情緒的這種分歧，從而展示了最近宏觀經濟發展所產生的不確定性。

Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum also saw the expiration of about 184,000 options contracts valued at roughly $280 million. Ethereum’s implied volatility remains elevated compared to Bitcoin, with ETH holding near 80% for short to mid-term contracts while BTC’s has dropped closer to 50%.

與比特幣一起，以太坊還看到約有184,000個期權合同的到期，價值約2.8億美元。與比特幣相比，以太坊的隱含波動率仍然升高，而在短期到中期合同中，ETH持有近80％，而BTC的持有量接近50％。

The broader cryptocurrency market has felt the pressure of these developments, with total market capitalization dropping by 2.9% to $2.664 trillion in a 24-hour period. Bitcoin remains approximately 26% below its all-time high set earlier this year.

更廣泛的加密貨幣市場感受到了這些發展的壓力，在24小時內，總市值下降了2.9％，至2.664萬億美元。比特幣在今年早些時候仍低於其歷史最高水平的26％。

Market watchers noted unusual trading behavior ahead of recent policy announcements. Data provider Greeks Live reported several large purchases in the $75,000 to $77,500 range just before tariff news broke, leading some to question whether certain participants had advance knowledge of the announcements.

市場觀察家在最近的政策公告之前指出了不尋常的交易行為。數據提供商Greeks Live報告說，在關稅新聞破裂之前的75,000至77,500美元範圍內，幾次大型購買，導致某些人質疑某些參與者是否已提前了解公告。

Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring key price levels. The $85,000 mark is viewed as a short-term target, while $100,000 continues to serve as longer-term resistance. Despite recent gains, skepticism persists over whether the current momentum can sustain through the coming weeks.

展望未來，交易者正在密切監視關鍵價格水平。 $ 85,000的大關被視為短期目標，而100,000美元繼續用作長期抵抗。儘管最近有所收穫，但對目前的勢頭在未來幾週內是否可以維持的持懷疑態度。

Bitcoin's price prediction for the near future remains cautiously bullish as long as it sustains above $81,500. However, the cryptocurrency market continues to be affected by lower sentiment and liquidity issues that impact price stability.

只要比特幣對不久的將來的價格預測仍然謹慎看漲，只要其持續超過81,500美元。但是，加密貨幣市場繼續受到影響價格穩定的較低情緒和流動性問題的影響。