比特币（BTC）价格预测：加密货币市场是否会继续看涨？

随着全球市场对贸易紧张局势的反应，比特币面临着动荡的价格行动，在急剧下降和篮板之间摆动

Bitcoin faced a turbulent week with sharp drops and rebounds, swinging between new lows and attempts to rally back above the $80,000 range. The cryptocurrency has been largely moving in lockstep with U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, spurring questions about its effectiveness as a safe haven asset during this economic downturn.

比特币面临着一个动荡的一周，有急剧的下降和篮板，在新的低点之间摆动，并试图将重新集结到80,000美元的范围上。加密货币在很大程度上与美国股票（尤其是纳斯达克股票）陷入困境，这激发了有关其在这种经济衰退期间作为避风港资产的有效性的问题。

However, some positive signs have emerged for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Data from Santiment indicates that the number of Bitcoin “sharks” (holders of over 10 BTC) increased significantly, with more than 132 new wallets appearing in a 24-hour period.

但是，比特币爱好者出现了一些积极的迹象。 Santiment的数据表明，比特币“鲨鱼”（超过10 BTC的持有人）的数量显着增加，在24小时内出现了132多个新钱包。

More notably, CryptoQuant data revealed a massive transfer of approximately 48,575 BTC, valued at around $3.6 billion, flowing into accumulation addresses. This marks the largest such movement since 2022 and may signal growing confidence among wealthy investors.

更值得注意的是，加密数据显示，大约48,575 BTC的大规模转移，价值约36亿美元，流向累积地址。这标志着自2022年以来最大的运动，并可能表明富裕投资者的信心越来越大。

This accumulation activity suggests that despite short-term price volatility, larger investors might be taking a longer-term bullish stance on Bitcoin's prospects. This view is further supported by the rapid recovery above the $80,000 mark, which appears to have quickly restored confidence that was shaken when prices fell below this threshold for the second consecutive time.

这种积累活动表明，尽管短期价格波动，但较大的投资者可能会对比特币的前景采取长期看涨立场。高于80,000美元的快速恢复进一步支持了这种观点，这似乎已经迅速恢复了，当价格连续第二次下跌以下时，这种信心就被动摇了。

The recent price action is closely watched by technical analysts who see Bitcoin approaching what many consider a decisive phase that could determine its medium-term direction. Some technical indicators present mixed signals. The Ichimoku cloud is approaching a bearish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), having dropped below average, shows signs of a potential bullish divergence. Many analysts suggest that maintaining levels above $81,500 will be crucial for continuing the bullish trend.

技术分析师密切关注了最近的价格行动，他们看到比特币接近许多人认为可以决定其中期方向的决定性阶段。一些技术指标呈现混合信号。 Ichimoku Cloud接近看跌的交叉，而相对强度指数（RSI）降至平均水平以下，显示出潜在的看涨差异的迹象。许多分析师认为，维持高于81,500美元的水平对于继续看涨趋势至关重要。

The analysis of options expiry data for April 11 revealed the expiration of roughly 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a total value of approximately $2.26 billion. The put/call ratio stood at 0.88, indicating a relatively balanced mix of bearish and bullish positions among traders.

对期权到期数据的分析显示，大约28,000个比特币期权合约到期，总价值约为22.6亿美元。前/呼叫比率为0.88，表明贸易商之间看跌和看跌的位置相对平衡。

These options had a “max pain” point of $81,500 – the price level at which the most contracts would expire worthless. Interestingly, open interest remained high at both the $70,000 and $100,000 strike prices, reflecting the divided sentiment among market participants. Some traders expect further price declines, while others anticipate a recovery that could push Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. This split in market sentiment is evident in the varying predictions, showcasing the uncertainty created by recent macroeconomic developments.

这些选项的“最大痛苦”点为81,500美元 - 最多合同到期的价格水平毫无价值。有趣的是，开放式利息仍然很高，以70,000美元和100,000美元的打击价格，这反映了市场参与者之间的分歧。一些交易者预计价格会进一步下降，而另一些交易者则预计可以将比特币推向100,000美元的回收率。在不同的预测中可以明显看出这种市场情绪的这种分歧，从而展示了最近宏观经济发展所产生的不确定性。

Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum also saw the expiration of about 184,000 options contracts valued at roughly $280 million. Ethereum’s implied volatility remains elevated compared to Bitcoin, with ETH holding near 80% for short to mid-term contracts while BTC’s has dropped closer to 50%.

与比特币一起，以太坊还看到约有184,000个期权合同的到期，价值约2.8亿美元。与比特币相比，以太坊的隐含波动率仍然升高，而在短期到中期合同中，ETH持有近80％，而BTC的持有量接近50％。

The broader cryptocurrency market has felt the pressure of these developments, with total market capitalization dropping by 2.9% to $2.664 trillion in a 24-hour period. Bitcoin remains approximately 26% below its all-time high set earlier this year.

更广泛的加密货币市场感受到了这些发展的压力，在24小时内，总市值下降了2.9％，至2.664万亿美元。比特币在今年早些时候仍低于其历史最高水平的26％。

Market watchers noted unusual trading behavior ahead of recent policy announcements. Data provider Greeks Live reported several large purchases in the $75,000 to $77,500 range just before tariff news broke, leading some to question whether certain participants had advance knowledge of the announcements.

市场观察家在最近的政策公告之前指出了不寻常的交易行为。数据提供商Greeks Live报告说，在关税新闻破裂之前的75,000至77,500美元范围内，几次大型购买，导致某些人质疑某些参与者是否已提前了解公告。

Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring key price levels. The $85,000 mark is viewed as a short-term target, while $100,000 continues to serve as longer-term resistance. Despite recent gains, skepticism persists over whether the current momentum can sustain through the coming weeks.

展望未来，交易者正在密切监视关键价格水平。 $ 85,000的大关被视为短期目标，而100,000美元继续用作长期抵抗。尽管最近有所收获，但对目前的势头在未来几周内是否可以维持的持怀疑态度。

Bitcoin's price prediction for the near future remains cautiously bullish as long as it sustains above $81,500. However, the cryptocurrency market continues to be affected by lower sentiment and liquidity issues that impact price stability.

只要比特币对不久的将来的价格预测仍然谨慎看涨，只要其持续超过81,500美元。但是，加密货币市场继续受到影响价格稳定的较低情绪和流动性问题的影响。