比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：1 月 BTC 會觸及 12 萬美元嗎？

從主要交易所創紀錄的穩定幣儲備到預期的美國政策轉變等因素的綜合作用，吸引了投資者和分析師的關注

Bitcoin has soared to historic highs over the past several weeks, and many in the crypto community are fixated on a single question: Will it hit $120,000 in January?

過去幾週，比特幣飆升至歷史高位，加密社群的許多人都專注於一個問題：一月份比特幣會達到 12 萬美元嗎？

A confluence of factors—ranging from record stablecoin reserves on major exchanges to anticipated U.S. policy shifts—has investors and analysts alike seeing the start of the new year as a potential springboard for Bitcoin’s next major leap.

從主要交易所創紀錄的穩定幣儲備到預期的美國政策轉變等因素的綜合作用，投資者和分析師都將新年伊始視為比特幣下一次重大飛躍的潛在跳板。

An Inauguration-Day Boost

就職日的提振

Some market observers point to the upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration on January 20 as a possible catalyst. The theory goes that a fresh administration may spark a wave of optimism in risk-on assets, Bitcoin included.

一些市場觀察家指出，即將於 1 月 20 日舉行的美國總統就職典禮可能是催化劑。該理論認為，新政府可能會引發對包括比特幣在內的風險資產的樂觀情緒。

One veteran market strategist says that “new political leadership often coincides with a change in how investors view both fiscal policy and monetary support,” opening the door to renewed enthusiasm for digital currencies.

一位資深市場策略師表示，“新的政治領導往往與投資者對財政政策和貨幣支持的看法發生變化同時發生”，這為人們重新燃起對數位貨幣的熱情打開了大門。

Also, Wall Street’s so-called “January effect”—when new investments and portfolio rebalancing can lift stocks—could also benefit Bitcoin. According to one crypto research chief, this seasonal pattern might set the stage for a run past six figures before profit-taking triggers any correction. “It’s a rally fueled by optimism,” says a senior analyst at a global trading firm. “Investors come in with fresh allocations, and Bitcoin’s volatility often amplifies those moves.”

此外，華爾街所謂的「一月效應」——新的投資和投資組合再平衡可以提振股市——也可能使比特幣受益。一位加密貨幣研究主管表示，這種季節性模式可能會為獲利回吐觸發任何調整之前突破六位數奠定基礎。 「這是由樂觀情緒推動的反彈，」一家全球貿易公司的高級分析師表示。 “投資者帶著新的配置進來，而比特幣的波動性往往會放大這些波動。”

$45 Billion in Stablecoins Waiting on the Sidelines

450 億美元的穩定幣觀望

Observers point to the massive stablecoin reserves on major cryptocurrency exchanges as a key signal of untapped buying power. Stablecoins serve as on-ramps for fiat currency, allowing investors to move quickly into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Data from one popular analytics platform shows that Binance’s stablecoin reserves recently hovered near an all-time high of roughly $45 billion.

觀察家指出，主要加密貨幣交易所擁有大量穩定幣儲備，這是購買力尚未開發的關鍵訊號。穩定幣充當法定貨幣的入口，使投資者能夠快速進入比特幣和其他加密貨幣。來自一個流行分析平台的數據顯示，幣安的穩定幣儲備最近徘徊在約 450 億美元的歷史高點附近。

“Every time stablecoin reserves rise, it hints that there’s new capital poised to enter the market,” explains one institutional investment advisor. “All that liquidity can translate into sharp price moves, especially if investors sense a major event like the presidential inauguration might accelerate adoption or policy clarity.”

「每次穩定幣儲備增加，都暗示有新的資本準備進入市場，」一位機構投資顧問解釋。 “所有流動性都可能轉化為價格的大幅波動，特別是如果投資者意識到總統就職典禮等重大事件可能會加速採用或政策明確化。”

Even with the bullish outlook, analysts caution that key resistance levels still stand in Bitcoin’s path. Prices hovering in the mid-$90,000 range may need to clear at least $96,400 to trigger what one market watcher describes as “a significant wave of short liquidations,” referring to the forced closure of bets against Bitcoin. Such a wave could send prices surging toward $120,000 faster than skeptics anticipate.

儘管前景看漲，但分析師警告稱，比特幣的走勢仍面臨關鍵阻力位。徘徊在 90,000 美元中間的價格可能需要至少清除 96,400 美元才能觸發一位市場觀察人士所描述的“一波重大空頭清算浪潮”，指的是對比特幣的押注被迫平倉。這樣的浪潮可能會導致價格飆升至 12 萬美元，速度比懷疑論者預期的要快。