比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：1 月份 BTC 会触及 120,000 美元吗？

从主要交易所创纪录的稳定币储备到预期的美国政策转变等因素的综合作用，吸引了投资者和分析师的关注

Bitcoin has soared to historic highs over the past several weeks, and many in the crypto community are fixated on a single question: Will it hit $120,000 in January?

过去几周，比特币飙升至历史高位，加密社区的许多人都关注一个问题：一月份比特币会达到 12 万美元吗？

A confluence of factors—ranging from record stablecoin reserves on major exchanges to anticipated U.S. policy shifts—has investors and analysts alike seeing the start of the new year as a potential springboard for Bitcoin’s next major leap.

从主要交易所创纪录的稳定币储备到预期的美国政策转变等因素的综合作用，投资者和分析师都将新年伊始视为比特币下一次重大飞跃的潜在跳板。

An Inauguration-Day Boost

就职日的提振

Some market observers point to the upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration on January 20 as a possible catalyst. The theory goes that a fresh administration may spark a wave of optimism in risk-on assets, Bitcoin included.

一些市场观察人士指出，即将于 1 月 20 日举行的美国总统就职典礼可能是一个催化剂。该理论认为，新政府可能会引发对包括比特币在内的风险资产的乐观情绪。

One veteran market strategist says that “new political leadership often coincides with a change in how investors view both fiscal policy and monetary support,” opening the door to renewed enthusiasm for digital currencies.

一位资深市场策略师表示，“新的政治领导往往与投资者对财政政策和货币支持的看法发生变化同时发生”，这为人们重新燃起对数字货币的热情打开了大门。

Also, Wall Street’s so-called “January effect”—when new investments and portfolio rebalancing can lift stocks—could also benefit Bitcoin. According to one crypto research chief, this seasonal pattern might set the stage for a run past six figures before profit-taking triggers any correction. “It’s a rally fueled by optimism,” says a senior analyst at a global trading firm. “Investors come in with fresh allocations, and Bitcoin’s volatility often amplifies those moves.”

此外，华尔街所谓的“一月效应”——新的投资和投资组合再平衡可以提振股市——也可能使比特币受益。一位加密货币研究主管表示，这种季节性模式可能会为获利回吐触发任何调整之前突破六位数奠定基础。 “这是由乐观情绪推动的反弹，”一家全球贸易公司的高级分析师表示。 “投资者带着新的配置进来，而比特币的波动性往往会放大这些波动。”

$45 Billion in Stablecoins Waiting on the Sidelines

450 亿美元的稳定币在观望

Observers point to the massive stablecoin reserves on major cryptocurrency exchanges as a key signal of untapped buying power. Stablecoins serve as on-ramps for fiat currency, allowing investors to move quickly into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Data from one popular analytics platform shows that Binance’s stablecoin reserves recently hovered near an all-time high of roughly $45 billion.

观察人士指出，主要加密货币交易所拥有大量稳定币储备，这是购买力尚未开发的关键信号。稳定币充当法定货币的入口，使投资者能够快速进入比特币和其他加密货币。来自一个流行分析平台的数据显示，币安的稳定币储备最近徘徊在约 450 亿美元的历史高点附近。

“Every time stablecoin reserves rise, it hints that there’s new capital poised to enter the market,” explains one institutional investment advisor. “All that liquidity can translate into sharp price moves, especially if investors sense a major event like the presidential inauguration might accelerate adoption or policy clarity.”

“每次稳定币储备增加，都暗示有新的资本准备进入市场，”一位机构投资顾问解释道。 “所有流动性都可能转化为价格的大幅波动，特别是如果投资者意识到总统就职典礼等重大事件可能会加速采用或政策明确化。”

Even with the bullish outlook, analysts caution that key resistance levels still stand in Bitcoin’s path. Prices hovering in the mid-$90,000 range may need to clear at least $96,400 to trigger what one market watcher describes as “a significant wave of short liquidations,” referring to the forced closure of bets against Bitcoin. Such a wave could send prices surging toward $120,000 faster than skeptics anticipate.

尽管前景看涨，但分析师警告称，比特币的走势仍面临关键阻力位。徘徊在 90,000 美元中间的价格可能需要至少清除 96,400 美元才能触发一位市场观察人士所描述的“一波重大空头清算浪潮”，指的是对比特币的押注被迫平仓。这样的浪潮可能会导致价格飙升至 120,000 美元，速度比怀疑论者预期的要快。