比特幣（BTC）的價格在美元（DXY）弱點中持有，它可以作為宏觀對沖的新角色嗎？

最近幾個月，美元面臨著一個顯著的衰退，DXY交易的價格為99.72。自2023年7月以來一直沒有看到這個水平

The US dollar has been weak recently, with the DXY trading at 99.72. This level hasn't been seen since July 2023. A weak dollar is often seen as a positive sign for stocks. After all, when the dollar falls, it can make US exports cheaper and encourage foreign investment. However, this time, the context is quite different.

美元最近很薄弱，DXY交易的價格為99.72。自2023年7月以來一直沒有看到這個水平。弱美元通常被視為股票的積極信號。畢竟，當美元下降時，它可以使我們更便宜並鼓勵外國投資。但是，這一次，上下文是完全不同的。

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The primary focus is on the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The imposition of tariffs has made the U.S. a riskier proposition for foreign investors. As the tariffs take their toll on global supply chains, many countries are starting to view the U.S. with more caution, leading to a weaker global market outlook.

主要重點是美國和中國之間的貿易緊張局勢。對關稅的徵收使美國成為外國投資者的風險更大。當關稅對全球供應鏈造成損失時，許多國家開始謹慎對待美國，導致全球市場前景較弱。

The current economic turbulence is far more complex than simply viewing the weaker dollar as a positive for equities.

當前的經濟動盪要比簡單地將較弱的美元視為股票的積極的範圍要復雜得多。

The bond market is selling off right in the middle of a stock market meltdown. The U.S. is currently viewed as a risk to the rest of the world, and it's momentarily breaking the usual mechanics of the market.

債券市場在股票市場崩潰的中間售出。目前，美國被視為世界其他地區的風險，它暫時打破了市場的通常機制。

Stocks are falling because tariffs are expected to impact the real economy. Under normal circumstances, when stocks drop, we'd typically see a flight to safety—investors rushing into U.S. Treasuries, viewing them as a safe haven. That demand would usually drive bond prices up and yields down.

股票下跌，因為預計關稅會影響實際經濟。在正常情況下，當股票下降時，我們通常會看到飛往安全的航班 - 派往美國國庫的投資者，將其視為避風港。這種需求通常會推動債券價格上漲並降低。

But this time, that flight to safety isn't happening. Instead, yields are rising, signaling a potential shift in how the market is interpreting risk.

但是這次，飛往安全的航班沒有發生。取而代之的是，產量正在上升，這表明市場如何解釋風險。

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With the dollar weaker, stock prices lower, and bonds losing their usual safe haven appeal, the question on everyone's mind is: What's keeping Bitcoin afloat? Could we be witnessing the beginning of a broader financial shift where traditional assets, like the US dollar and government bonds, lose their status as safe havens in favor of alternatives like Bitcoin? The resilience of Bitcoin amidst this turmoil suggests that a significant shift in the financial landscape may be underway.

由於美元弱，股票價格降低和債券失去了他們通常的避風港吸引力，因此每個人的想法是：什麼是使比特幣漂浮？我們能目睹更廣泛的財務轉變的開始，在這種轉變中，諸如美元和政府債券之類的傳統資產失去了他們作為避風港的地位，而是支持比特幣這樣的替代品？在這種動盪中，比特幣的彈性表明，金融景觀可能正在發生重大轉變。

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Bitcoin as a Hedge: A Shift in Narrative?

比特幣作為樹籬：敘事的轉變？

As traditional markets struggle, Bitcoin is showing strength—and possibly stepping into a new role as a macro hedge. A recent VanEck report highlights several factors supporting this shift.

隨著傳統市場的掙扎，比特幣正在表現出力量，並可能扮演宏觀對沖的新角色。 Vaneck最近的一份報告強調了支持這一轉變的幾個因素。

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First, a dovish turn in Fed policy and rising liquidity historically benefit Bitcoin. Continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index could also reinforce the "Bitcoin-as-a-hedge" narrative, especially in a fragmented geopolitical climate.

首先，在美聯儲政策和流動性歷史上有益於比特幣，這是一個艱難的轉變。美元指數的持續弱點也可以加強“比特幣AS-A-As-a-a-As-A”敘述，尤其是在零散的地緣政治氣候中。

Notably, while 10-year Treasury yields surged this week, Bitcoin remained stable. Unlike in 2022, rising yields didn't trigger forced liquidations or volatility, suggesting BTC may be decoupling from old macro sensitivities.

值得注意的是，儘管本週10年的財政部收益率飆升，但比特幣保持穩定。與2022年不同，產量上升並沒有觸發強制清算或波動性，這表明BTC可能與舊的宏觀敏感性解耦。

On-chain and ETF data support this resilience. Despite recent volatility, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs are net positive ~$600 million YTD, with renewed inflows in March.

鏈上和ETF數據支持這種彈性。儘管最近波動性，但上市的現貨比特幣ETF淨淨正左右約6億YTD，三月份的流入率恢復了。

Finally, moves by China or the EU to bypass dollar-based systems could further legitimize Bitcoin as an alternative financial rail in a shifting global order.

最後，中國或歐盟繞過基於美元的系統可以進一步將比特幣合法化為全球秩序的替代金融鐵路。

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