比特币（BTC）的价格在美元（DXY）弱点中持有，它可以作为宏观对冲的新角色吗？

最近几个月，美元面临着一个显着的衰退，DXY交易的价格为99.72。自2023年7月以来一直没有看到这个水平

The US dollar has been weak recently, with the DXY trading at 99.72. This level hasn't been seen since July 2023. A weak dollar is often seen as a positive sign for stocks. After all, when the dollar falls, it can make US exports cheaper and encourage foreign investment. However, this time, the context is quite different.

美元最近很薄弱，DXY交易的价格为99.72。自2023年7月以来一直没有看到这个水平。弱美元通常被视为股票的积极信号。毕竟，当美元下降时，它可以使我们更便宜并鼓励外国投资。但是，这一次，上下文是完全不同的。

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The primary focus is on the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The imposition of tariffs has made the U.S. a riskier proposition for foreign investors. As the tariffs take their toll on global supply chains, many countries are starting to view the U.S. with more caution, leading to a weaker global market outlook.

主要重点是美国和中国之间的贸易紧张局势。对关税的征收使美国成为外国投资者的风险更大。当关税对全球供应链造成损失时，许多国家开始谨慎对待美国，导致全球市场前景较弱。

The current economic turbulence is far more complex than simply viewing the weaker dollar as a positive for equities.

当前的经济动荡要比简单地将较弱的美元视为股票的积极的范围要复杂得多。

The bond market is selling off right in the middle of a stock market meltdown. The U.S. is currently viewed as a risk to the rest of the world, and it's momentarily breaking the usual mechanics of the market.

债券市场在股票市场崩溃的中间售出。目前，美国被视为世界其他地区的风险，它暂时打破了市场的通常机制。

Stocks are falling because tariffs are expected to impact the real economy. Under normal circumstances, when stocks drop, we'd typically see a flight to safety—investors rushing into U.S. Treasuries, viewing them as a safe haven. That demand would usually drive bond prices up and yields down.

股票下跌，因为预计关税会影响实际经济。在正常情况下，当股票下降时，我们通常会看到飞往安全的航班 - 派往美国国库的投资者，将其视为避风港。这种需求通常会推动债券价格上涨并降低。

But this time, that flight to safety isn't happening. Instead, yields are rising, signaling a potential shift in how the market is interpreting risk.

但是这次，飞往安全的航班没有发生。取而代之的是，产量正在上升，这表明市场如何解释风险。

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With the dollar weaker, stock prices lower, and bonds losing their usual safe haven appeal, the question on everyone's mind is: What's keeping Bitcoin afloat? Could we be witnessing the beginning of a broader financial shift where traditional assets, like the US dollar and government bonds, lose their status as safe havens in favor of alternatives like Bitcoin? The resilience of Bitcoin amidst this turmoil suggests that a significant shift in the financial landscape may be underway.

由于美元弱，股票价格降低和债券失去了他们通常的避风港吸引力，因此每个人的想法是：什么是使比特币漂浮？我们能目睹更广泛的财务转变的开始，在这种转变中，诸如美元和政府债券之类的传统资产失去了他们作为避风港的地位，而是支持比特币这样的替代品？在这种动荡中，比特币的弹性表明，金融景观可能正在发生重大转变。

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Bitcoin as a Hedge: A Shift in Narrative?

比特币作为树篱：叙事的转变？

As traditional markets struggle, Bitcoin is showing strength—and possibly stepping into a new role as a macro hedge. A recent VanEck report highlights several factors supporting this shift.

随着传统市场的挣扎，比特币正在表现出力量，并可能扮演宏观对冲的新角色。 Vaneck最近的一份报告强调了支持这一转变的几个因素。

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First, a dovish turn in Fed policy and rising liquidity historically benefit Bitcoin. Continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index could also reinforce the "Bitcoin-as-a-hedge" narrative, especially in a fragmented geopolitical climate.

首先，在美联储政策和流动性历史上有益于比特币，这是一个艰难的转变。美元指数的持续弱点也可以加强“比特币AS-A-As-a-a-As-A”叙述，尤其是在零散的地缘政治气候中。

Notably, while 10-year Treasury yields surged this week, Bitcoin remained stable. Unlike in 2022, rising yields didn't trigger forced liquidations or volatility, suggesting BTC may be decoupling from old macro sensitivities.

值得注意的是，尽管本周10年的财政部收益率飙升，但比特币保持稳定。与2022年不同，产量上升并没有触发强制清算或波动性，这表明BTC可能与旧的宏观敏感性解耦。

On-chain and ETF data support this resilience. Despite recent volatility, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs are net positive ~$600 million YTD, with renewed inflows in March.

链上和ETF数据支持这种弹性。尽管最近波动性，但上市的现货比特币ETF净净正左右约6亿YTD，三月份的流入率恢复了。

Finally, moves by China or the EU to bypass dollar-based systems could further legitimize Bitcoin as an alternative financial rail in a shifting global order.

最后，中国或欧盟绕过基于美元的系统可以进一步将比特币合法化为全球秩序的替代金融铁路。

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