分析師 Timothy Peterson：無論美國大選結果如何，比特幣 (BTC) 價格都可能在 90 天內達到 10 萬美元

加密貨幣分析師 Timothy Peterson 表示，比特幣當前的價格走勢與先前的趨勢沒有太大不同，這引發了人們對「邊際收益遞減」理論的質疑。

Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin (BTC) could rally to the $100,000 mark within 90 days.

加密貨幣分析師 Timothy Peterson 認為，比特幣 (BTC) 可能會在 90 天內反彈至 10 萬美元大關。

Peterson’s analysis is based on BTC’s current price trajectory, which he claims is not substantially different from previous trends. This observation raises questions about the “diminishing marginal returns” theory, which suggests that each halving cycle leads to smaller successive price gains.

彼得森的分析是基於比特幣當前的價格軌跡，他聲稱這與先前的趨勢沒有太大不同。這一觀察引發了對「邊際收益遞減」理論的質疑，該理論表明每個減半週期都會導致較小的連續價格漲幅。

From an investor’s perspective, this theory implies that Bitcoin’s early cycles of massive gains could decrease over time as the digital asset’s total market cap matures and its supply shocks have a reduced impact on driving up demand.

從投資者的角度來看，這個理論意味著，隨著數位資產總市值的成熟，以及其供應衝擊對拉動需求的影響減弱，比特幣早期的大幅上漲週期可能會隨著時間的推移而減少。

However, Peterson’s assessment appears to dismiss this theory.

然而，彼得森的評估似乎駁回了這個理論。

To recall, BTC made its all-time high (ATH) of $73,737 in March 2024. Since then, the leading cryptocurrency has been consolidating for almost eight months in a wide price range, reaching as low as $54,000.

回想一下，BTC 在2024 年3 月創下了73,737 美元的歷史新高(ATH)。 。

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $67,998, about 10% lower than its ATH.

截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 67,998 美元，比其 ATH 低約 10%。

Peterson’s analysis suggests that BTC’s movement just above the red trendline would put the digital asset at $100,000 within 90 days. The analyst adds that such a move will be “completely within reason.”

Peterson 的分析表明，如果 BTC 的走勢略高於紅色趨勢線，則該數位資產將在 90 天內達到 10 萬美元。這位分析師補充說，此舉「完全在合理範圍內」。

A conservative scenario puts bitcoin at $100k around February.

保守的假設是，比特幣在 2 月左右將達到 10 萬美元。

I think this happens regardless of the US election outcome.

我認為無論美國大選結果如何，這種情況都會發生。

Moreover, the analyst suggests that other data-driven metrics he’s monitoring indicate BTC is not overpriced at its current market valuation, and the probability of a drop below $60,000 is becoming increasingly unlikely.

此外，這位分析師表示，他正在監測的其他數據驅動指標表明，按照當前的市場估值，比特幣的定價並沒有過高，並且跌破 6 萬美元的可能性越來越小。

Focus On BTC Year-End Price Predictions

關注BTC年終價格預測

While Peterson envisions BTC nearing $100,000 within three months, other analysts and industry insiders have varying expectations.

儘管彼得森預計 BTC 在三個月內接近 10 萬美元，但其他分析師和業內人士卻有不同的預期。

For instance, options market traders expect BTC to break through its previous ATH by November end, no matter who becomes the next US president.

例如，選擇權市場交易員預計，無論誰成為下一任美國總統，比特幣都將在 11 月底突破之前的最高水準。

Similarly, in a recent client memo, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan outlined several factors that could force BTC to “melt-up” to $80,000 in Q4 2024.

同樣，在最近的一份客戶備忘錄中，Bitwise 首席資訊長 Matt Hougan 概述了可能迫使 BTC 在 2024 年第四季度「上漲」至 80,000 美元的幾個因素。

These factors include the potential victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump, additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and an extended period free of major negative developments in the crypto sector.

這些因素包括共和黨候選人唐納德·川普的潛在勝利、美聯儲（Fed）進一步降息以及加密貨幣行業在較長時間內沒有重大負面發展。

Besides the aforementioned factors, the optimism toward a year-end BTC rally is also fueled by rising retail demand for the premier digital asset.

除了上述因素之外，對比特幣年底上漲的樂觀情緒也受到零售對這種主要數位資產的需求不斷增長的推動。

Recent analysis by CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin transactions worth less than $10,000 are on an uptrend, indicating renewed retail demand as the market gradually pivots from risk-off to risk-on mode.

CryptoQuant 最近的分析強調，價值低於 10,000 美元的比特幣交易呈上升趨勢，顯示隨著市場逐漸從風險規避模式轉向風險偏好模式，零售需求重新出現。

BTC trades at $67,998 on the daily chart at press time, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours.

截至發稿時，BTC 日線圖交易價格為 67,998 美元，過去 24 小時上漲 1.1%。