分析师蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）表示，无论美国大选结果如何，比特币（BTC）价格都可能在 90 天内达到 100,000 美元

加密货币分析师蒂莫西·彼得森 (Timothy Peterson) 表示，比特币当前的价格走势与之前的趋势没有太大不同，这引发了人们对“边际收益递减”理论的质疑。

Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin (BTC) could rally to the $100,000 mark within 90 days.

加密货币分析师蒂莫西·彼得森 (Timothy Peterson) 认为，比特币 (BTC) 可能会在 90 天内反弹至 100,000 美元大关。

Peterson’s analysis is based on BTC’s current price trajectory, which he claims is not substantially different from previous trends. This observation raises questions about the “diminishing marginal returns” theory, which suggests that each halving cycle leads to smaller successive price gains.

彼得森的分析基于比特币当前的价格轨迹，他声称这与之前的趋势没有太大不同。这一观察结果引发了对“边际收益递减”理论的质疑，该理论表明每个减半周期都会导致较小的连续价格涨幅。

From an investor’s perspective, this theory implies that Bitcoin’s early cycles of massive gains could decrease over time as the digital asset’s total market cap matures and its supply shocks have a reduced impact on driving up demand.

从投资者的角度来看，这一理论意味着，随着数字资产总市值的成熟，以及其供应冲击对拉动需求的影响减弱，比特币早期的大幅上涨周期可能会随着时间的推移而减少。

However, Peterson’s assessment appears to dismiss this theory.

然而，彼得森的评估似乎驳回了这一理论。

To recall, BTC made its all-time high (ATH) of $73,737 in March 2024. Since then, the leading cryptocurrency has been consolidating for almost eight months in a wide price range, reaching as low as $54,000.

回想一下，BTC 在 2024 年 3 月创下了 73,737 美元的历史新高 (ATH)。此后，这一领先的加密货币在近八个月的时间里一直在宽广的价格区间内盘整，最低跌至 54,000 美元。

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $67,998, about 10% lower than its ATH.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 67,998 美元，比其 ATH 低约 10%。

Peterson’s analysis suggests that BTC’s movement just above the red trendline would put the digital asset at $100,000 within 90 days. The analyst adds that such a move will be “completely within reason.”

Peterson 的分析表明，如果 BTC 的走势略高于红色趋势线，则该数字资产将在 90 天内达到 100,000 美元。这位分析师补充说，这样的举动“完全在合理范围内”。

A conservative scenario puts bitcoin at $100k around February.

保守的假设是，比特币在 2 月份左右将达到 10 万美元。

I think this happens regardless of the US election outcome.

我认为无论美国大选结果如何，这种情况都会发生。

Moreover, the analyst suggests that other data-driven metrics he’s monitoring indicate BTC is not overpriced at its current market valuation, and the probability of a drop below $60,000 is becoming increasingly unlikely.

此外，这位分析师表示，他正在监测的其他数据驱动指标表明，按照当前的市场估值，比特币的定价并没有过高，并且跌破 60,000 美元的可能性越来越小。

Focus On BTC Year-End Price Predictions

关注BTC年终价格预测

While Peterson envisions BTC nearing $100,000 within three months, other analysts and industry insiders have varying expectations.

尽管彼得森预计比特币将在三个月内接近 10 万美元，但其他分析师和业内人士却有不同的预期。

For instance, options market traders expect BTC to break through its previous ATH by November end, no matter who becomes the next US president.

例如，期权市场交易员预计，无论谁成为下一任美国总统，比特币都将在 11 月底突破之前的最高水平。

Similarly, in a recent client memo, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan outlined several factors that could force BTC to “melt-up” to $80,000 in Q4 2024.

同样，在最近的一份客户备忘录中，Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 概述了可能迫使 BTC 在 2024 年第四季度“上涨”至 80,000 美元的几个因素。

These factors include the potential victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump, additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and an extended period free of major negative developments in the crypto sector.

这些因素包括共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普的潜在胜利、美联储（Fed）进一步降息以及加密货币行业在较长时间内没有重大负面发展。

Besides the aforementioned factors, the optimism toward a year-end BTC rally is also fueled by rising retail demand for the premier digital asset.

除了上述因素之外，对比特币年底上涨的乐观情绪也受到零售对这种主要数字资产的需求不断增长的推动。

Recent analysis by CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin transactions worth less than $10,000 are on an uptrend, indicating renewed retail demand as the market gradually pivots from risk-off to risk-on mode.

CryptoQuant 最近的分析强调，价值低于 10,000 美元的比特币交易呈上升趋势，表明随着市场逐渐从风险规避模式转向风险偏好模式，零售需求重新出现。

BTC trades at $67,998 on the daily chart at press time, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours.

截至发稿时，BTC 日线图交易价格为 67,998 美元，过去 24 小时上涨 1.1%。