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比特幣(BTC)的價格從3月28日至3月31日之間的$ 87,241下降到81,331美元,從前17天就刪除了收益。
Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped from $87,241 to $81,331 between March 28 and March 31, erasing gains from the previous 17 days. The 6.8% correction liquidated $230 million in bullish BTC futures positions and largely followed the declining momentum in the US stock market, as the S&P 500 futures fell to their lowest levels since March 14.
比特幣(BTC)的價格從3月28日至3月31日之間的$ 87,241下降到81,331美元,從前17天就刪除了收益。 6.8%的校正使看漲的BTC期貨職位清算了2.3億美元,並且在美國股票市場的勢頭下降,因為標準普爾500指貨期貨自3月14日以來的最低水平下降。
Despite struggling to hold above $82,000 on March 31, four key indicators point to strong investor confidence and potential signs of Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets in the near future.
儘管在3月31日努力持有超過82,000美元的股份,但四個關鍵指標表明,在不久的將來,比特幣與傳統市場的潛在跡象表明,比特幣的潛在跡象。
S&P 500 index futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
標準普爾500指數期貨(左)與比特幣/USD(右)。資料來源:TradingView / Cointelegraph
Traders fear the global trade war’s impact on economic growth, especially after the March 26 announcement of a 25% US tariff on foreign-made vehicles. According to Yahoo News, Goldman Sachs strategists cut the firm’s year-end S&P 500 target for the second time, lowering it from 6,200 to 5,700. Similarly, Barclays analysts reduced their forecast from 6,600 to 5,900.
貿易商擔心全球貿易戰對經濟增長的影響,尤其是在3月26日宣布美國對外國製造的車輛徵收25%的關稅之後。根據Yahoo News的報導,高盛戰略家第二次削減了該公司的年終標準普爾500目標,從6,200降低到5,700。同樣,巴克萊分析師將其預測從6,600降低到5,900。
Regardless of the reasons behind investors’ heightened risk perception, gold surged to a record high above $3,100 on March 31. The $21 trillion asset is widely considered the ultimate hedge, especially when traders prioritize alternatives over cash. Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, with the DXY index dropping to 104.10 from 107.60 in February.
不管投資者的風險感知增強背後的原因是什麼,黃金在3月31日飆升至3,100美元以上的創紀錄高度。 21萬億美元的資產被廣泛認為是最終的對沖,尤其是當交易者優先考慮替代品而不是現金時。同時,美元對一籃子外幣削弱了,DXY指數從2月的107.60下降到104.10。
Bitcoin metrics show strength, while long-term investors are unfazed
比特幣指標表現出強度,而長期投資者卻不感到
Bitcoin’s narratives of being “digital gold” and an “uncorrelated asset” are being questioned, despite a 36% gain over 6 months while the S&P 500 index fell 3.5% during the same period. Several Bitcoin metrics continued to show strength, indicating that long-term investors remain unfazed by the temporary correlation as central banks pivot to expansionist measures to prevent an economic crisis.
儘管在6個月內增長了36%,而同一時期的標準普爾500指數下降了3.5%,但比特幣關於“數字黃金”和“不相關資產”的敘述正在受到質疑。幾個比特幣指標繼續表現出強度,表明長期投資者對臨時關聯仍然沒有暫時的關聯,因為中央銀行與擴張主義者措施預防經濟危機。
Bitcoin's mining hashrate, which measures the computing power behind the network’s block validation mechanism, reached an all-time high.
比特幣的採礦哈希雷特(Hashrate)衡量了網絡塊驗證機制背後的計算能力,達到了歷史最高水平。
Bitcoin mining estimated 7-day average hashrate, TH/s. Source: Blockchain.com
比特幣開採估計為7天的平均哈希酸鹽,Th/s。資料來源:BlockChain.com
The 7-day hashrate reached a peak of 856.2 million terahashes per second on March 28, up from 798.8 million in February. Hence, there are no signs of panic selling from miners, as shown by the flow of known entities to exchanges.
3月28日的7天哈希拉特(Hashrate)每秒達到了85620萬台Terahashes的峰值,高於2月的79880萬。因此,沒有礦工出售恐慌的跡象,如已知實體向交流的流動所示。
In the past, BTC price downturns were associated with periods of FUD regarding the “death spiral,” where miners were forced to sell when becoming unprofitable. Additionally, the 7-day average of net transfers from miners to exchanges on March 30 stood at BTC 125, according to Glassnode data, much lower than the BTC 450 mined per day.
過去,BTC的價格下降與“死亡螺旋”時期的FUD時期有關,礦工在變得無利可圖時被迫出售。此外,根據玻璃節數據,3月30日從礦工到交易所的淨轉移的7天平均轉移量低於BTC 125,遠低於每天開采的BTC 450。
Bitcoin 7-day average net transfer volume from/to miners, BTC. Source: Glassnode
比特幣7天的平均淨轉移量從/到礦工,BTC。來源:玻璃節
Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings filed a prospectus on March 28 to sell up to $2 billion in stocks to expand its BTC reserves and for “general corporate purposes.” This move follows GameStop (GME), the US-listed videogame company, which filed a $1.3 billion convertible debt offering plan on March 26 while updating its reserve investment strategy to include potential Bitcoin and stablecoin acquisitions.
比特幣礦工Mara Holdings於3月28日提交了一份招股說明書,以銷售高達20億美元的股票,以擴大其BTC儲備金和“一般公司目的”。此舉遵循美國上市的電子遊戲公司GameStop(GME),該公司於3月26日提交了13億美元的可轉換債務發行計劃,同時更新其儲備投資策略以包括潛在的比特幣和Stablecoin收購。
Related: Trump sons back new Bitcoin mining venture with Hut 8
相關:特朗普兒子與小屋8的新比特幣採礦合資企業
Crypto exchange reserves drop
加密貨幣儲量下降
Cryptocurrency exchanges’ reserves dropped to their lowest levels in over 6 years on March 30, reaching BTC 2.64 million, according to Glassnode data. The reduced number of coins available for immediate trading typically indicates that investors are more inclined to hold, which is particularly significant as Bitcoin’s price declined 5.1% in 7 days.
根據GlassNode的數據,加密貨幣交換的儲量在3月30日以上的6年內下降到了最低水平,達到了BTC 264萬。可立即交易的硬幣數量減少通常表明投資者更傾向於持有,這尤其重要,因為比特幣的價格在7天內下跌了5.1%。
Lastly, near-zero net outflows in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between March 27 and March 28 signal confidence from institutional investors.
最後,在3月27日至3月28日之間,美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)的接近零淨流出信號是機構投資者的信心。
In short, Bitcoin investors remain confident due to the record-high mining hashrate, corporate adoption, and 6-year low exchange reserves, which signal long-term holding.
簡而言之,由於創紀錄的礦床,公司採用和6年的低交易所儲量,比特幣投資者保持信心,這表明了長期持有。
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
本文是出於一般信息目的,不打算被視為法律或投資建議。這裡表達的觀點,思想和觀點是作者獨自一人,不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點和觀點。
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