比特幣（BTC）價格合併以上$ 10萬美元，因為美聯儲準備2025年首次會議

美聯儲（美聯儲）正在為計劃於週三舉行的2025年第一次會議做準備，市場密切關注有關未來貨幣政策的信號。

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing for its first meeting of 2025, scheduled for Wednesday, with markets closely watching for signals about future monetary policy. The meeting comes as bitcoin trades near $102,000 and as new immigration policies begin to take effect across the United States.

美聯儲（美聯儲）正在為計劃於週三舉行的2025年第一次會議做準備，市場密切關注有關未來貨幣政策的信號。這次會議是隨著比特幣交易近102,000美元的匯率而舉行的，隨著美國的新移民政策開始生效。

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at their current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This decision follows a 25-basis point rate cut in December, which marked a 100-basis point decline since September 2024.

聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）被廣泛預期將使利率保持在目前的4.25％至4.50％的範圍內。該決定是在12月的25個基點率下降之後，這標誌著自2024年9月以來的100個基點下降。

Market participants have largely priced in an unchanged rate decision, with CME’s FedWatch tool indicating a 99.5% probability of rates remaining stable. The focus has instead shifted to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, scheduled for 19:30 UTC on Wednesday.

市場參與者在很大程度上定價在不變的利率決策中，CME的FedWatch工具表明率穩定的率為99.5％。相反，重點轉向了美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的新聞發布會，該新聞發布會於週三19:30舉行。

The meeting takes place against the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s new immigration policies, which began implementation over the weekend. Early estimates suggest that deportations could affect between one million to ten million individuals currently residing in the United States.

會議是在唐納德·特朗普總統的新移民政策的背景下舉行的，該政策在周末開始實施。早期的估計表明，驅逐出境可能會影響目前居住在美國的一百萬到一百萬個人。

Labor market implications of these deportation policies have caught the attention of economic analysts. Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Benjamin Picton notes that removing up to one million workers from the labor force could tighten an already strong job market, potentially creating upward pressure on wages and inflation.

這些驅逐出境政策的勞動力市場影響引起了經濟分析師的注意。 Rabobank的高級宏觀戰略家本傑明·皮克頓（Benjamin Picton）指出，從勞動力中撤離多達一百萬工人可能會收緊本來就強大的就業市場，有可能對工資和通貨膨脹造成上升壓力。

The Treasury Department recently announced that the U.S. had reached its $36 trillion debt ceiling, prompting the implementation of extraordinary measures. One key action involves drawing down the Treasury General Account (TGA), which typically helps ease market liquidity conditions.

財政部最近宣布，美國已達到36萬億美元的債務上限，促使實施了非凡措施。一個關鍵行動涉及劃定財政部總帳戶（TGA），這通常有助於緩解市場流動性條件。

Bitcoin’s price action has remained relatively stable in anticipation of the Fed meeting, consolidating above $100,000 after briefly dipping below this psychological barrier. The cryptocurrency closed at $102,000 on January 28, with traders watching for potential volatility following Powell’s comments.

在預期美聯儲會議上，比特幣的價格行動仍然相對穩定，在短暫浸入此心理障礙之後，比特幣的價格穩定了100,000美元。加密貨幣於1月28日收於102,000美元，貿易商在鮑威爾發表評論後關注潛在的波動。

Recent data indicates a moderation in shelter inflation, a key component of the Consumer Price Index. The Labor Department’s “all tenant rent” index showed a slowdown to 3.2% growth in the fourth quarter, compared to 3.9% in the previous quarter and 5.5% a year ago.

最近的數據表明，避難所通貨膨脹的適度，這是消費者價格指數的關鍵組成部分。勞工部的“所有租戶租金”指數顯示，第四季度的增長率下降到3.2％，而上季度為3.9％，一年前為5.5％。

Technical analysts have identified several key price levels for Bitcoin around the FOMC meeting. Support levels appear around $97,000 and $94,000, with some analysts suggesting these areas could be tested before the meeting. Resistance levels are noted near $107,000, with a potential push toward new all-time highs above $110,000 if market sentiment turns positive.

技術分析師在FOMC會議上確定了比特幣的幾個關鍵價格水平。支持水平出現在97,000美元和94,000美元左右，一些分析師表明可以在會議之前對這些領域進行測試。電阻水平的水平接近107,000美元，如果市場情緒變為正面，則可能會推向新歷史高度以上的新歷史高點。

Market commentators note that Trump’s public calls for interest rate cuts add another layer of complexity to the meeting. However, they emphasize that the Federal Reserve maintains its independence in policy decisions.

市場評論員指出，特朗普的公眾呼籲降低利率降低，為會議增加了另一層複雜性。但是，他們強調，美聯儲在政策決策中保持獨立性。

Danske Bank analysts expect limited market impact from this week’s meeting, citing clear advance communication from December. They note that while preliminary assumptions about Trump’s policies have been considered, uncertainty remains high.

Danske Bank分析師預計，本週會議的市場影響有限，理由是12月的明確交流。他們指出，儘管已經考慮了有關特朗普政策的初步假設，但不確定性仍然很高。

The TGA spending situation presents an additional factor for consideration. This spending typically creates easier liquidity conditions, which could offset some effects of the Fed’s ongoing quantitative tightening measures.

TGA支出情況提出了一個額外的考慮因素。這種支出通常會產生更容易的流動性條件，這可能會抵消美聯儲正在進行的定量收緊措施的某些影響。

Leading indicators for shelter inflation suggest a potential easing trend, which Powell may address during his press conference. Wall Street Journal’s Chief Economic Correspondent Nick Timaros highlighted that current levels are approaching the 2017-2019 average of 3.1%.

庇護通貨膨脹的主要指標表明，鮑威爾在新聞發布會期間可能會解決這一潛在的輕鬆趨勢。 《華爾街日報》的首席經濟通訊員尼克·塔馬羅斯（Nick Timaros）強調，目前的水平接近2017 - 2019年平均水平3.1％。

Byzantine General, a futures market analyst, suggests Bitcoin prices might test lower levels in the $92,000-$94,000 range before the FOMC meeting concludes. However, other analysts point to potentially bullish scenarios if Powell’s tone appears less hawkish than in December.

期貨市場分析師拜占庭將軍認為，在FOMC會議結束之前，比特幣價格可能在92,000-94,000美元的範圍內測試較低的水平。但是，其他分析師指出，如果鮑威爾的語氣比12月份的霍克什（Hawkish）更少，則可能會看漲。

The market remains particularly focused on any shifts in forward guidance, especially given recent economic data points and the new political landscape under the Trump administration.

該市場尤其集中在遠期指導的任何轉變上，尤其是考慮到特朗普政府領導下的新經濟數據點和新的政治格局。