比特币（BTC）价格合并以上$ 10万美元，因为美联储准备2025年首次会议

美联储（美联储）正在为计划于周三举行的2025年第一次会议做准备，市场密切关注有关未来货币政策的信号。

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing for its first meeting of 2025, scheduled for Wednesday, with markets closely watching for signals about future monetary policy. The meeting comes as bitcoin trades near $102,000 and as new immigration policies begin to take effect across the United States.

美联储（美联储）正在为计划于周三举行的2025年第一次会议做准备，市场密切关注有关未来货币政策的信号。这次会议是随着比特币交易近102,000美元的汇率而举行的，随着美国的新移民政策开始生效。

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at their current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This decision follows a 25-basis point rate cut in December, which marked a 100-basis point decline since September 2024.

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）被广泛预期将使利率保持在目前的4.25％至4.50％的范围内。该决定是在12月的25个基点率下降之后，这标志着自2024年9月以来的100个基点下降。

Market participants have largely priced in an unchanged rate decision, with CME’s FedWatch tool indicating a 99.5% probability of rates remaining stable. The focus has instead shifted to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, scheduled for 19:30 UTC on Wednesday.

市场参与者在很大程度上定价在不变的利率决策中，CME的FedWatch工具表明率稳定的率为99.5％。相反，重点转向了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会，该新闻发布会于周三19:30举行。

The meeting takes place against the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s new immigration policies, which began implementation over the weekend. Early estimates suggest that deportations could affect between one million to ten million individuals currently residing in the United States.

会议是在唐纳德·特朗普总统的新移民政策的背景下举行的，该政策在周末开始实施。早期的估计表明，驱逐出境可能会影响目前居住在美国的一百万到一百万个人。

Labor market implications of these deportation policies have caught the attention of economic analysts. Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Benjamin Picton notes that removing up to one million workers from the labor force could tighten an already strong job market, potentially creating upward pressure on wages and inflation.

这些驱逐出境政策的劳动力市场影响引起了经济分析师的注意。 Rabobank的高级宏观战略家本杰明·皮克顿（Benjamin Picton）指出，从劳动力中撤离多达一百万工人可能会收紧本来就强大的就业市场，有可能对工资和通货膨胀造成上升压力。

The Treasury Department recently announced that the U.S. had reached its $36 trillion debt ceiling, prompting the implementation of extraordinary measures. One key action involves drawing down the Treasury General Account (TGA), which typically helps ease market liquidity conditions.

财政部最近宣布，美国已达到36万亿美元的债务上限，促使实施了非凡措施。一个关键行动涉及划定财政部总帐户（TGA），这通常有助于缓解市场流动性条件。

Bitcoin’s price action has remained relatively stable in anticipation of the Fed meeting, consolidating above $100,000 after briefly dipping below this psychological barrier. The cryptocurrency closed at $102,000 on January 28, with traders watching for potential volatility following Powell’s comments.

在预期美联储会议上，比特币的价格行动仍然相对稳定，在短暂浸入此心理障碍之后，比特币的价格稳定了100,000美元。加密货币于1月28日收于102,000美元，贸易商在鲍威尔发表评论后关注潜在的波动。

Recent data indicates a moderation in shelter inflation, a key component of the Consumer Price Index. The Labor Department’s “all tenant rent” index showed a slowdown to 3.2% growth in the fourth quarter, compared to 3.9% in the previous quarter and 5.5% a year ago.

最近的数据表明，避难所通货膨胀的适度，这是消费者价格指数的关键组成部分。劳工部的“所有租户租金”指数显示，第四季度的增长率下降到3.2％，而上季度为3.9％，一年前为5.5％。

Technical analysts have identified several key price levels for Bitcoin around the FOMC meeting. Support levels appear around $97,000 and $94,000, with some analysts suggesting these areas could be tested before the meeting. Resistance levels are noted near $107,000, with a potential push toward new all-time highs above $110,000 if market sentiment turns positive.

技术分析师在FOMC会议上确定了比特币的几个关键价格水平。支持水平出现在97,000美元和94,000美元左右，一些分析师表明可以在会议之前对这些领域进行测试。电阻水平的水平接近107,000美元，如果市场情绪变为正面，则可能会推向新历史高度以上的新历史高点。

Market commentators note that Trump’s public calls for interest rate cuts add another layer of complexity to the meeting. However, they emphasize that the Federal Reserve maintains its independence in policy decisions.

市场评论员指出，特朗普的公众呼吁降低利率降低，为会议增加了另一层复杂性。但是，他们强调，美联储在政策决策中保持独立性。

Danske Bank analysts expect limited market impact from this week’s meeting, citing clear advance communication from December. They note that while preliminary assumptions about Trump’s policies have been considered, uncertainty remains high.

Danske Bank分析师预计，本周会议的市场影响有限，理由是12月的明确交流。他们指出，尽管已经考虑了有关特朗普政策的初步假设，但不确定性仍然很高。

The TGA spending situation presents an additional factor for consideration. This spending typically creates easier liquidity conditions, which could offset some effects of the Fed’s ongoing quantitative tightening measures.

TGA支出情况提出了一个额外的考虑因素。这种支出通常会产生更容易的流动性条件，这可能会抵消美联储正在进行的定量收紧措施的某些影响。

Leading indicators for shelter inflation suggest a potential easing trend, which Powell may address during his press conference. Wall Street Journal’s Chief Economic Correspondent Nick Timaros highlighted that current levels are approaching the 2017-2019 average of 3.1%.

庇护通货膨胀的主要指标表明，鲍威尔在新闻发布会期间可能会解决这一潜在的轻松趋势。 《华尔街日报》的首席经济通讯员尼克·塔马罗斯（Nick Timaros）强调，目前的水平接近2017 - 2019年平均水平3.1％。

Byzantine General, a futures market analyst, suggests Bitcoin prices might test lower levels in the $92,000-$94,000 range before the FOMC meeting concludes. However, other analysts point to potentially bullish scenarios if Powell’s tone appears less hawkish than in December.

期货市场分析师拜占庭将军认为，在FOMC会议结束之前，比特币价格可能在92,000-94,000美元的范围内测试较低的水平。但是，其他分析师指出，如果鲍威尔的语气比12月份的霍克什（Hawkish）更少，则可能会看涨。

The market remains particularly focused on any shifts in forward guidance, especially given recent economic data points and the new political landscape under the Trump administration.

该市场尤其集中在远期指导的任何转变上，尤其是考虑到特朗普政府领导下的新经济数据点和新的政治格局。