比特幣（BTC）價格分析：我們在周期性的波峰嗎？

托尼·“公牛” Severino是一位備受關注的加密分析師，最近訪問了社交媒體平台X，分享了比特幣歷史價格行為的詳細細分。

Tony "The Bull" Severino, a well-followed crypto analyst, recently took to the social media platform X to share a detailed breakdown of Bitcoin's (BTC) historical price behavior. The analysis uses a cyclical lens that many in the crypto community (both bulls and bears) agree holds significant relevance.

托尼“公牛” Severino是一位備受關注的加密分析師，最近帶到了社交媒體平台X，分享了比特幣（BTC）歷史價格行為的詳細細分。該分析使用了一個週期性的鏡頭，加密社區中許多人（公牛和熊）都同意具有很大的意義。

Notably, Severino focuses on the concept of Bitcoin's four-year cycles and how troughs and crests have consistently marked the periods of greatest opportunity and greatest risks for investing in Bitcoin. This analysis comes in light of Bitcoin's recent price correction below $90,000 in March.

值得注意的是，Severino專注於比特幣的四年周期的概念，以及如何始終如一地標誌著最大的機會時期和對比特幣投資的最大風險。這項分析是根據比特幣在三月份的90,000美元低於90,000美元的價格更正來進行的。

Cycles Define Sentiment: From Troughs Of Opportunity To Crests Of Risk

週期定義情緒：從機會槽到風險的冠冕

Severino's analysis starts from a foundational belief shared across the crypto industry. The widely-held belief is that Bitcoin operates in clearly defined cycles, usually lasting around four years, mostly in relation to its halving cycles. His technical outlook is based on Bitcoin's cycle indicator on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart that goes as far back as 2013.

Severino的分析始於整個加密貨幣行業的基本信念。人們普遍存在的信念是，比特幣以明確定義的周期運行，通常持續四年，大部分是關於其減半週期的。他的技術前景基於比特幣在每月燭台時間表圖表上的周期指標，該圖表早在2013年。

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin has gone through four definitive cycles in its history. These cycles, he explains, should be viewed from "trough to trough." The troughs are the darkest moments in the market, but they also represent the point of maximum financial opportunity.

如下圖所示，比特幣在其歷史上經歷了四個確定的周期。他解釋說，這些週期應從“槽到槽”。槽是市場上最黑暗的時刻，但它們也代表了最大的財務機會。

As these cycles progress, Bitcoin transitions through periods of increasing optimism, eventually arriving at what the analyst calls the "cyclical crest." These crests, highlighted in red in his chart, are the periods where Bitcoin has reached its point of maximum financial risk. This is relayed in the ensuing price actions, with the Bitcoin price topping out right after passing each cyclical crest.

隨著這些週期的發展，比特幣通過增加樂觀的時期過渡，最終達到了分析師所謂的“週期性波峰”。這些波峰在他的圖表中以紅色突出顯示，是比特幣達到最大財務風險點的時期。隨後的價格動作中傳達了這一點，在通過每個週期性波峰之後，比特幣的價格立即升至。

Bitcoin passed through its crest in the current market cycle just before reaching its all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. If past cycles are any indication, the coming months could reveal whether a top is already in.

比特幣在當前的市場週期中經過了波峰，直到2025年1月達到其歷史最高點108,786美元。如果過去的周期有任何跡象，那麼未來幾個月可能會揭示頂部是否已經進入。

Right-Translated Peaks: Is BTC Running Out Of Time In This Cycle?

右翻譯峰：BTC在這個週期中是否沒有時間？

Bitcoin has been on a correction path since February and is currently down by 20% from this $108,786 price high. The Bitcoin price has even gone ahead to correct as low as $78,780 in the second week of March, triggering reactions as to whether the crypto has already reached its peak price this cycle.

比特幣自2月以來一直處於糾正措施，目前比這個108,786美元的價格下降了20％。在3月的第二週，比特幣價格甚至取得了較低的價格低至78,780美元，這引發了對加密貨幣是否已經達到這個週期的高峰價格的反應。

However, Bitcoin might not be in the woods yet, as not all crests are followed immediately by market tops. Severino pointed out that past cycles have featured "right-translated" peaks where Bitcoin continued to rise slightly even after crossing the crest. The 2017 bull run was the most right-translated, with price action staying strong for some time after the red-zone crest. In contrast, other cycles began reversing not long after reaching this point of maximum risk.

但是，比特幣可能還沒有在樹林中，因為並非所有波峰都會立即被市場上衣。 Severino指出，過去的周期以“右翻譯”峰為特色，即使在越過波峰之後，比特幣仍繼續略微上升。 2017年的公牛奔跑是最右的翻譯，在紅色區域波峰之後，價格行動保持了一段時間。相比之下，其他週期在達到最大風險點後不久就開始逆轉。

Bitcoin appears to have already passed the red crest based on Severino's model, but this does not confirm a top is in just yet. Instead, it means that the margin for error is rapidly narrowing. The longer BTC continues to correct after this point, the more elevated the risk of a bearish phase becomes.

比特幣似乎已經根據Severino的模型傳遞了紅色波峰，但這尚未確認頂部尚未確定。相反，這意味著錯誤的邊距正在迅速縮小。在這一點之後，BTC的越來越長，看跌階段的風險越高。

BTC is attempting to regain bullish momentum at the time of writing, trading at $87,300 after rising 3.6% in the past 24 hours. Many other analysts argue that the Bitcoin price could still chart higher territory this year before a definitive top is confirmed.

BTC試圖在寫作時重新獲得看漲的勢頭，在過去24小時內上漲3.6％後，交易價格為87,300美元。許多其他分析師認為，在確認最終頂部之前，比特幣價格仍然可以繪製出更高的領土。