比特幣[BTC]接近一個臨界閾值，其價格現在接近緊密包裝的短清算水平。

由thekingfisher。在撰寫本文時，短職位集群在83,000美元至83,500美元之間，而漫長的清算量低於82400美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] is nearing a critical threshold, with its price now close to tightly packed short liquidation levels.

比特幣[BTC]接近一個臨界閾值，其價格現在接近緊密包裝的短清算水平。

This sets the stage for heightened volatility, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards a new leg of ascent.

這為提高波動率的舞台奠定了基礎，有可能將比特幣推向新的上升。

At the time of writing, the short positions cluster was between $83,100 and $83,500, while the long liquidations stretched below $82,400. This compression sets the stage for further volatility on the charts.

在撰寫本文時，短職位集群在83,100美元至83,500美元之間，而漫長的清算量則低於82,400美元。這種壓縮為在圖表上進一步波動奠定了階段。

A squeeze waiting to happen?

等待發生的擠壓？

The imbalance becomes apparent when examining the chart structure closely.

在仔細檢查圖表結構時，不平衡變得顯而易見。

The short liquidation band sat just 0.6–1.1% above spot. Meanwhile, long exposure seemed to be more widely dispersed. This creates an asymmetrical pressure zone favoring bulls if the upper boundary is breached.

短清算帶僅比點高0.6–1.1％。同時，長期暴露似乎更廣泛地分散。如果違反上邊界，這會產生一個有利於公牛的不對稱壓力區。

Now, consider how this unfolds across trading platforms.

現在，考慮一下這在交易平台之間的發展。

Binance and Bybit highlighted the most concentrated short positions, based on color-coded zones in the heatmap. This suggested platform-specific risk. If price begins to climb, these clusters could trigger stop-outs first – Pushing Bitcoin into a forced buying cycle.

Binance和Bybit強調了最集中的短位置，該位置基於熱圖中的顏色編碼區域。這建議了平台特定的風險。如果價格開始攀升，這些集群可能會首先觸發停止 - 將比特幣推入強迫購買週期。

Support for this setup comes from intraday heatmap activity too.

對此設置的支持也來自日內熱圖活動。

Source: CoinGlass

資料來源：小店

Coinglass data also showed that Bitcoin rose from $80,673 to $83,618 on 31 March. Liquidation leverage surged to $35.43M during this move.

Coinglass數據還顯示，3月31日，比特幣從80,673美元上漲至83,618美元。在此舉動期間，清算槓桿率飆升至3543萬美元。

The timing wasn’t random though, as most activity occurred between 15:15 and 18:30 (3 March).

時機並不是隨機的，因為大多數活動發生在15:15至18:30（3月3日）之間。

A surge… or just the start?

激增……還是開始？

Layer in Bybit’s numbers, and the signal strengthens.

在bybit的數字中分層，信號加強。

Indeed, a separate heatmap recorded the session’s peak at $83,642. Liquidation leverage hit $48.98M, with over 70% of total liquidations packed between $81,000 and $83,600.

實際上，一個單獨的熱圖記錄了會議的峰值為83,642美元。清算槓桿率達到了4898萬美元，總清算量的70％以上，載有81,000美元至83,600美元。

Source: CoinGlass

資料來源：小店

This seemed to confirm that leveraged short positions were stacked near its press time levels.

這似乎證實了利用的短職位被堆疊在其新聞時間水平附近。

What sits behind this leverage though? Well, Exchange Netflows might offer a clue.

但是，這種槓桿率是什麼？好吧，Exchange Netfrows可能會提供線索。

According to CryptoQuant, for instance, Bitcoin outflows have dominated Binance and Bybit since February.

例如，自2月以來，比特幣流出占主導地位和bybit。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

Traders have been pulling assets amid the cryptocurrency’s falling prices.

在加密貨幣的下跌價格下降，交易者一直在收取資產。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

Even after inflows of 4,258 BTC on 28 March, the market has remained under pressure – A sign that these were likely short-term positioning inflows, not long-term accumulation.

即使在3月28日流入4,258 BTC之後，市場仍處於壓力下 - 這表明這些可能是短期定位流入，而不是長期積累。

Look back to see forward

回頭看看前進

Zoom out further, and the price trend highlighted this sentiment.

進一步縮小，價格趨勢強調了這一觀點。

Since peaking at $106,164 on 21 January, Bitcoin has dropped by 22%, closing March at $82,500. This decline seemed to be in line with persistent outflows and increasing liquidation events.

自從1月21日達到頂峰的106,164美元以來，比特幣下降了22％，3月份收於82,500美元。這種下降似乎與持續的流出和清算事件的增加相符。

Then, there’s the funding rate.

然後，有資金率。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

Between 24-28 March, rates were negative—indicating short-dominant sentiment. However, by 30 March, that flipped. Positive funding rates now mean rising long exposure. It’s a key sentiment shift. Shorts may be closing, and longs may be beginning to re-enter.

在3月24日至28日之間，費率為負 - 表明短暫的情緒。但是，到3月30日，這已經翻轉了。積極的資金率現在意味著長期暴露。這是一個關鍵的情感轉變。短褲可能正在關閉，渴望可能開始重新進入。

Pair this with Open Interest and the picture sharpens.

將其與開放的興趣配對，圖片逐漸增強。

The calm before the move?

移動前的平靜？

Open interest fell from $25.39 billion to $23.12 billion over the last week of March. The sharpest decline came on 28 March. That drop indicated large position closures or liquidations.

在3月的最後一周，開放利息從253.9億美元下降到231.2億美元。 3月28日最急劇下降。該下降表明較大的位置封閉或清算。

As Open Interest falls and funding rises, it often marks the early stages of market repositioning.

隨著開放興趣下降和資金的上升，它通常標誌著市場重新定位的早期階段。

Source: Coinalyze

資料來源：赤果

Shorts outweighed longs by 1.5–2x, triggering a setup historically linked to 60–65% upward volatility, according to TheKingfisher. Current liquidation clusters meet that threshold, with a key resistance at $83,100.

根據Thekingfisher的說法，短褲的渴望超過了1.5-2倍，從歷史上觸發了與60-65％向上波動率有關的設置。當前的清算簇符合該閾值，鑰匙阻力為83,100美元。

A break above $83,100 may push Bitcoin towards $83,500, with low resistance extending to $83,877. Heatmap data revealed minimal order friction in this range, resembling prior short squeezes.

超過83,100美元的休息時間可能會將比特幣推向83,500美元，低阻力延長至83,877美元。熱圖數據顯示，在此範圍內摩擦最少，類似於先前的短擠壓。

If Bitcoin fails to clear resistance, bearish sentiment may return. Especially if funding flips negative or inflows decline. However, with compressed shorts, positive funding, and aligned heatmaps, the short-term bias might be leaning bullish.

如果比特幣無法清除抵抗力，看跌的情緒可能會返回。尤其是如果資金會消失或流入下降。但是，有了壓縮的短褲，積極的資金和對齊熱圖，短期偏見可能會傾向於看漲。

Hence, market timing remains critical. And, the window for upside is narrowing.

因此，市場時機仍然至關重要。而且，上升空間的窗口正在縮小。