比特币[BTC]接近一个临界阈值，其价格现在接近紧密包装的短清算水平。

由thekingfisher。在撰写本文时，短职位集群在83,000美元至83,500美元之间，而漫长的清算量低于82400美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] is nearing a critical threshold, with its price now close to tightly packed short liquidation levels.

比特币[BTC]接近一个临界阈值，其价格现在接近紧密包装的短清算水平。

This sets the stage for heightened volatility, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards a new leg of ascent.

这为提高波动率的舞台奠定了基础，有可能将比特币推向新的上升。

At the time of writing, the short positions cluster was between $83,100 and $83,500, while the long liquidations stretched below $82,400. This compression sets the stage for further volatility on the charts.

在撰写本文时，短职位集群在83,100美元至83,500美元之间，而漫长的清算量则低于82,400美元。这种压缩为在图表上进一步波动奠定了阶段。

A squeeze waiting to happen?

等待发生的挤压？

The imbalance becomes apparent when examining the chart structure closely.

在仔细检查图表结构时，不平衡变得显而易见。

The short liquidation band sat just 0.6–1.1% above spot. Meanwhile, long exposure seemed to be more widely dispersed. This creates an asymmetrical pressure zone favoring bulls if the upper boundary is breached.

短清算带仅比点高0.6–1.1％。同时，长期暴露似乎更广泛地分散。如果违反上边界，这会产生一个有利于公牛的不对称压力区。

Now, consider how this unfolds across trading platforms.

现在，考虑一下这在交易平台之间的发展。

Binance and Bybit highlighted the most concentrated short positions, based on color-coded zones in the heatmap. This suggested platform-specific risk. If price begins to climb, these clusters could trigger stop-outs first – Pushing Bitcoin into a forced buying cycle.

Binance和Bybit强调了最集中的短位置，该位置基于热图中的颜色编码区域。这建议了平台特定的风险。如果价格开始攀升，这些集群可能会首先触发停止 - 将比特币推入强迫购买周期。

Support for this setup comes from intraday heatmap activity too.

对此设置的支持也来自日内热图活动。

Source: CoinGlass

资料来源：小店

Coinglass data also showed that Bitcoin rose from $80,673 to $83,618 on 31 March. Liquidation leverage surged to $35.43M during this move.

Coinglass数据还显示，3月31日，比特币从80,673美元上涨至83,618美元。在此举动期间，清算杠杆率飙升至3543万美元。

The timing wasn’t random though, as most activity occurred between 15:15 and 18:30 (3 March).

时机并不是随机的，因为大多数活动发生在15:15至18:30（3月3日）之间。

A surge… or just the start?

激增……还是开始？

Layer in Bybit’s numbers, and the signal strengthens.

在bybit的数字中分层，信号加强。

Indeed, a separate heatmap recorded the session’s peak at $83,642. Liquidation leverage hit $48.98M, with over 70% of total liquidations packed between $81,000 and $83,600.

实际上，一个单独的热图记录了会议的峰值为83,642美元。清算杠杆率达到了4898万美元，总清算量的70％以上，载有81,000美元至83,600美元。

Source: CoinGlass

资料来源：小店

This seemed to confirm that leveraged short positions were stacked near its press time levels.

这似乎证实了利用的短职位被堆叠在其新闻时间水平附近。

What sits behind this leverage though? Well, Exchange Netflows might offer a clue.

但是，这种杠杆率是什么？好吧，Exchange Netfrows可能会提供线索。

According to CryptoQuant, for instance, Bitcoin outflows have dominated Binance and Bybit since February.

例如，自2月以来，比特币流出占主导地位和bybit。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Traders have been pulling assets amid the cryptocurrency’s falling prices.

在加密货币的下跌价格下降，交易者一直在收取资产。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Even after inflows of 4,258 BTC on 28 March, the market has remained under pressure – A sign that these were likely short-term positioning inflows, not long-term accumulation.

即使在3月28日流入4,258 BTC之后，市场仍处于压力下 - 这表明这些可能是短期定位流入，而不是长期积累。

Look back to see forward

回头看看前进

Zoom out further, and the price trend highlighted this sentiment.

进一步缩小，价格趋势强调了这一观点。

Since peaking at $106,164 on 21 January, Bitcoin has dropped by 22%, closing March at $82,500. This decline seemed to be in line with persistent outflows and increasing liquidation events.

自从1月21日达到顶峰的106,164美元以来，比特币下降了22％，3月份收于82,500美元。这种下降似乎与持续的流出和清算事件的增加相符。

Then, there’s the funding rate.

然后，有资金率。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Between 24-28 March, rates were negative—indicating short-dominant sentiment. However, by 30 March, that flipped. Positive funding rates now mean rising long exposure. It’s a key sentiment shift. Shorts may be closing, and longs may be beginning to re-enter.

在3月24日至28日之间，费率为负 - 表明短暂的情绪。但是，到3月30日，这已经翻转了。积极的资金率现在意味着长期暴露。这是一个关键的情感转变。短裤可能正在关闭，渴望可能开始重新进入。

Pair this with Open Interest and the picture sharpens.

将其与开放的兴趣配对，图片逐渐增强。

The calm before the move?

移动前的平静？

Open interest fell from $25.39 billion to $23.12 billion over the last week of March. The sharpest decline came on 28 March. That drop indicated large position closures or liquidations.

在3月的最后一周，开放利息从253.9亿美元下降到231.2亿美元。 3月28日最急剧下降。该下降表明较大的位置封闭或清算。

As Open Interest falls and funding rises, it often marks the early stages of market repositioning.

随着开放兴趣下降和资金的上升，它通常标志着市场重新定位的早期阶段。

Source: Coinalyze

资料来源：赤果

Shorts outweighed longs by 1.5–2x, triggering a setup historically linked to 60–65% upward volatility, according to TheKingfisher. Current liquidation clusters meet that threshold, with a key resistance at $83,100.

根据Thekingfisher的说法，短裤的渴望超过了1.5-2倍，从历史上触发了与60-65％向上波动率有关的设置。当前的清算簇符合该阈值，钥匙阻力为83,100美元。

A break above $83,100 may push Bitcoin towards $83,500, with low resistance extending to $83,877. Heatmap data revealed minimal order friction in this range, resembling prior short squeezes.

超过83,100美元的休息时间可能会将比特币推向83,500美元，低阻力延长至83,877美元。热图数据显示，在此范围内摩擦最少，类似于先前的短挤压。

If Bitcoin fails to clear resistance, bearish sentiment may return. Especially if funding flips negative or inflows decline. However, with compressed shorts, positive funding, and aligned heatmaps, the short-term bias might be leaning bullish.

如果比特币无法清除抵抗力，看跌的情绪可能会返回。尤其是如果资金会消失或流入下降。但是，有了压缩的短裤，积极的资金和对齐热图，短期偏见可能会倾向于看涨。

Hence, market timing remains critical. And, the window for upside is narrowing.

因此，市场时机仍然至关重要。而且，上升空间的窗口正在缩小。