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在 X 上的一篇新文章中,分析師 Ali Martinez 討論了比特幣市值與已實現價值 (MVRV) 比率的最新趨勢。
A signal on Bitcoin that has led to at least a 70% rally the last four times has recently formed for the asset once again.
比特幣最近四次上漲至少 70% 的訊號最近再次形成。
Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Has Flipped Bullish Recently
比特幣 MVRV 勢頭最近轉為看漲
Analyst Ali Martinez recently pointed out the trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap.
分析師 Ali Martinez 最近指出了比特幣市值與已實現價值(MVRV)比率的趨勢。 「MVRV比率」是衡量比特幣市值與已實現市值之間比率的指標。
The realized cap in this context is an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the true value of any token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain and not the current spot price.
在這種情況下,已實現的上限是一種鏈上資本化模型,該模型透過假設流通中的任何代幣的真實價值是其最後在區塊鏈上交易的價格而不是當前現貨價格來計算資產的總價值。
This last transaction price of any coin is likely to be its latest cost basis, and hence, the realized cap is a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. In another way of putting it, this model represents the capital that the investors have put into the asset.
任何代幣的最後交易價格都可能是其最新的成本基礎,因此,已實現的上限是所有流通代幣的成本基礎的總和。換句話說,這個模型代表了投資者投入資產的資本。
Related Reading:
相關閱讀:
Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity
比特幣投資者留意:礦工表現出不尋常的交易流入活動
On the other hand, the market cap, which calculates the total valuation of the total BTC supply at the current spot price, signifies the value that the investors hold right now.
另一方面,市值計算的是當前現貨價格下比特幣總供應量的總估值,代表了投資者目前持有的價值。
When the MVRV Ratio is above 1, the investors hold more value than they put in, and thus they are in a state of net profit. In contrast, the metric being below this threshold suggests the market as a whole is carrying a loss.
當MVRV比率高於1時,投資人持有的價值大於投入的價值,因此處於淨利狀態。相反,低於該閾值的指標表明整個市場正在遭受損失。
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio and its 180-day moving average (MA) over the last few years:
現在,下面的圖表顯示了過去幾年比特幣 MVRV 比率及其 180 天移動平均線 (MA) 的趨勢:
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has surged recently as the asset’s price has undergone its recovery run, implying an improvement in investor profitability.
從上圖可以看出,隨著資產價格的復甦,比特幣 MVRV 比率最近飆升,這意味著投資人獲利能力有所改善。
This surge has now led the indicator to break above the 180-day MA. Historically, a movement above this line has meant that the momentum of the metric has flipped to positive, which has been observed to be a bullish indicator for the price.
此次飆升現已導致該指標突破 180 日均線。從歷史上看,突破這條線意味著該指標的動量已轉為正數,這被認為是價格的看漲指標。
In the chart, the analyst has marked the previous rallies that followed a momentum flip in the MVRV Ratio. Interestingly, BTC seemed to have seen surges of at least 70% on each of the last four occasions.
在圖表中,分析師標記了 MVRV 比率動量翻轉後的先前反彈。有趣的是,BTC 在過去四次中似乎每次都上漲了至少 70%。
If this precedent is anything to go by, the latest change in the MVRV Ratio momentum to green may once again lead to a surge for Bitcoin. However, it remains to be seen whether any such rally will be of a comparable scale to the previous ones or not.
如果這個先例可以作為參考,那麼 MVRV 比率勢頭向綠色的最新變化可能會再次導致比特幣價格飆升。然而,此類反彈的規模是否會與先前的反彈相當還有待觀察。
BTC Price
比特幣價格
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500, up almost 3% over the last week.
截至撰寫本文時,比特幣交易價格約為 67,500 美元,較上週上漲近 3%。
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