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在 X 上的一篇新文章中,分析师 Ali Martinez 讨论了比特币市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 比率的最新趋势。
A signal on Bitcoin that has led to at least a 70% rally the last four times has recently formed for the asset once again.
比特币最近四次上涨至少 70% 的信号最近再次形成。
Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Has Flipped Bullish Recently
比特币 MVRV 势头最近转为看涨
Analyst Ali Martinez recently pointed out the trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap.
分析师 Ali Martinez 最近指出了比特币市场价值与已实现价值(MVRV)比率的趋势。 “MVRV比率”是衡量比特币市值与已实现市值之间比率的指标。
The realized cap in this context is an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the true value of any token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain and not the current spot price.
在这种情况下,已实现的上限是一种链上资本化模型,该模型通过假设流通中的任何代币的真实价值是其最后在区块链上交易的价格而不是当前现货价格来计算资产的总价值。
This last transaction price of any coin is likely to be its latest cost basis, and hence, the realized cap is a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. In another way of putting it, this model represents the capital that the investors have put into the asset.
任何代币的最后交易价格都可能是其最新的成本基础,因此,已实现的上限是所有流通代币的成本基础的总和。换句话说,这个模型代表了投资者投入到资产中的资本。
Related Reading:
相关阅读:
Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity
比特币投资者留意:矿工表现出不寻常的交易流入活动
On the other hand, the market cap, which calculates the total valuation of the total BTC supply at the current spot price, signifies the value that the investors hold right now.
另一方面,市值计算的是当前现货价格下比特币总供应量的总估值,代表了投资者目前持有的价值。
When the MVRV Ratio is above 1, the investors hold more value than they put in, and thus they are in a state of net profit. In contrast, the metric being below this threshold suggests the market as a whole is carrying a loss.
当MVRV比率高于1时,投资者持有的价值大于投入的价值,因此处于净利润状态。相反,低于该阈值的指标表明整个市场正在亏损。
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio and its 180-day moving average (MA) over the last few years:
现在,下面的图表显示了过去几年比特币 MVRV 比率及其 180 天移动平均线 (MA) 的趋势:
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has surged recently as the asset’s price has undergone its recovery run, implying an improvement in investor profitability.
从上图中可以看出,随着资产价格的复苏,比特币 MVRV 比率最近飙升,这意味着投资者盈利能力有所改善。
This surge has now led the indicator to break above the 180-day MA. Historically, a movement above this line has meant that the momentum of the metric has flipped to positive, which has been observed to be a bullish indicator for the price.
此次飙升现已导致该指标突破 180 日均线。从历史上看,突破这条线意味着该指标的动量已转为正数,这被认为是价格的看涨指标。
In the chart, the analyst has marked the previous rallies that followed a momentum flip in the MVRV Ratio. Interestingly, BTC seemed to have seen surges of at least 70% on each of the last four occasions.
在图表中,分析师标记了 MVRV 比率动量翻转后的先前反弹。有趣的是,BTC 在过去四次中似乎每次都上涨了至少 70%。
If this precedent is anything to go by, the latest change in the MVRV Ratio momentum to green may once again lead to a surge for Bitcoin. However, it remains to be seen whether any such rally will be of a comparable scale to the previous ones or not.
如果这个先例可以作为参考,那么 MVRV 比率势头向绿色的最新变化可能会再次导致比特币价格飙升。然而,此类反弹的规模是否会与之前的反弹相当还有待观察。
BTC Price
比特币价格
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500, up almost 3% over the last week.
截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格约为 67,500 美元,较上周上涨近 3%。
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