普埃爾多次暗示市場頂部可能即將到來，比特幣（BTC）礦工加大拋售熱潮

自從比特幣 (BTC) 突破 10 萬美元大關以來，礦工們加大了拋售熱潮。僅 12 月份，礦工就售出了 140K BTC，價值 $13.72B。

Bitcoin [BTC] miners have been ramping up their selling activity ever since the cryptocurrency crossed the $100K mark. In December alone, miners have sold 140K BTC, which is valued at $13.72B at the time of writing.

自從加密貨幣突破 10 萬美元大關以來，比特幣 [BTC] 礦商一直在加大拋售活動。僅在 12 月，礦工就售出了 140K BTC，在撰寫本文時價值為 $13.72B。

According to data from Santiment, this selling spree has seen the miner balance shrink from over 2M to 1.95M coins.

根據 Santiment 的數據，這次拋售熱潮導致礦工餘額從超過 200 萬枚縮減至 195 萬枚。

BTC steady above $100K

BTC 穩定在 10 萬美元以上

Despite this aggressive selling, the king coin has managed to hold strong above $100K.

儘管拋售如此猛烈，這款王幣仍堅守在 10 萬美元以上。

However, the intensity of the miner sell-off seems less severe when gauged through the metric of miner outflows. This metric tracks all miner wallets and their transfers to exchanges.

然而，透過礦商外流指標來衡量，礦商拋售的強度似乎不那麼嚴重。此指標追蹤所有礦工錢包及其向交易所的轉帳。

On the 12th of November, BTC saw its highest daily miner sell-off at 25K BTC. But the pressure has been easing since, as indicated by the decreasing miner outflows.

11 月 12 日，BTC 的礦工日拋售量達 2.5 萬枚，創下歷史新高。但此後壓力一直在緩解，礦工外流減少就顯示了這一點。

Perhaps the bulk of the selling might have occurred via OTC (Over The Counter) markets.

也許大部分的銷售是透過場外交易（OTC）市場進行。

That said, the overall December sell-off was too much for the demand from ETFs to handle. In the past two weeks, BTC ETFs have seen $4.9B in inflows. During this same time period, MicroStrategy purchased $3.6B in BTC.

也就是說，12 月的整體拋售對於 ETF 的需求來說太大了，無法應付。過去兩週，BTC ETF 資金流入達 $4.9B。同一時期，MicroStrategy 購買了 3.6B 美元的 BTC。

If we exclude Mara Digital and other companies with BTC corporate treasuries, then ETFs and MicroStrategy together clocked up $8.3B in BTC demand over the past two weeks. This was slightly less than the $13.72B in supply from miners.

如果我們排除 Mara Digital 和其他擁有 BTC 公司金庫的公司，那麼過去兩週 ETF 和 MicroStrategy 的 BTC 需求總計增加了 8.3B 美元。這略低於礦工的 $13.72B 供應量。

So, should this intense miner selling be a cause for concern for your portfolio? We checked the Puell Multiple to gain some insight.

那麼，這種強烈的礦商拋售是否應該引起您投資組合的擔憂呢？我們檢查了普爾倍數以獲得一些見解。

For those who don’t know, the Puell Multiple helps users gauge BTC valuation and cycles from the perspective of miners. If the metric climbs to the upper band, then BTC’s value is deemed unsustainably high.

對於那些不知道的人來說，普埃爾倍數可以幫助用戶從礦工的角度衡量 BTC 估值和週期。如果該指標攀升至上限，那麼 BTC 的價值將被視為不可持續的高位。

On the other hand, a low Puell Multiple reading suggests that BTC is relatively undervalued.

另一方面，較低的普埃爾倍數讀數表明 BTC 的價值相對被低估。

In early 2024, the metric hit 2.4, marking a local BTC top at $73.7K. At press time, the metric was reading 1.3, with not much left before crossing 2 or the upper band.

2024 年初，該指標達到 2.4，標誌著當地 BTC 價格達到 7.37 萬美元。截至發稿時，該指標讀數為 1.3，距離突破 2 或上限已經所剩無幾了。

So, according to the Puell Multiple and the miners’ perspective, BTC was not yet overvalued or heated, but that could change if the metric went above 2.

因此，根據 Puell Multiple 和礦工的觀點，BTC 尚未被高估或過熱，但如果該指標超過 2，情況可能會改變。

Meanwhile, BTC consolidated below $102K as we approached the Fed rate decision on 18 December.

同時，隨著 12 月 18 日聯準會利率決定的臨近，比特幣在 10.2 萬美元下方盤整。