隨著長期持有者開始拋售，比特幣（BTC）面臨市場波動，ATH 的反彈看起來不可持續

在昨天暴跌之前，比特幣最近的反彈將資產推升至 108,000 美元的歷史新高

Bitcoin’s recent rally was able to propel the asset to a new all-time high of $108,000 before yesterday’s plunge, marking another significant milestone in its upward trajectory.

比特幣最近的反彈推動該資產在昨天暴跌之前創下 108,000 美元的歷史新高，標誌著其上漲軌蹟的另一個重要里程碑。

However, according to the latest analysis, this notable price surge is accompanied by signs of potential market volatility, as long-term holders begin to exhibit selling activity.

然而，根據最新分析，隨著長期持有者開始表現出拋售活動，這種顯著的價格飆升伴隨著潛在市場波動的跡象。

Attention has been turned to the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, a critical tool for assessing the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders.

人們的注意力已轉向二元幣銷毀天數（CDD）指標，這是評估長期比特幣持有者行為的關鍵工具。

Bitcoin’s recent rally was able to propel the asset to a new all-time high before yesterday’s plunge. But what do long-term holders signal now?

比特幣最近的反彈推動該資產在昨天暴跌之前創下歷史新高。但長期持有者現在發出了什麼訊號？

The Binary CDD metric tracks the activity of long-term holders by measuring the number of “coin days” destroyed relative to the total supply. When this metric spikes, it often indicates increased selling pressure from long-term investors.

二進制 CDD 指標透過測量相對於總供應量的銷毀「幣天數」來追蹤長期持有者的活動。當該指標飆升時，通常表示長期投資者的拋售壓力增加。

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, ShayanBTC, the Binary CDD metric has recently recorded a sharp increase, coinciding with Bitcoin’s new price high. Historically, such spikes in this metric have been precursors to market corrections, suggesting that these holders are taking advantage of current price levels to reduce their exposure.

根據 CryptoQuant 分析師 ShayanBTC 的說法，二進位 CDD 指標最近急劇增長，與比特幣的新價格高點一致。從歷史上看，該指標的這種飆升一直是市場調整的前兆，表明這些持有者正在利用當前的價格水平來減少其風險敞口。

Shayan added that the long-term holders’ actions often serve as a barometer for broader market sentiment. The recent surge in the Binary CDD metric suggests that these holders might view the peak above $108,000 as a strategic exit point. If this selling pressure intensifies, it could lead to heightened market volatility and potentially trigger a price correction.

Shayan 補充說，長期持有者的行為通常可以作為更廣泛市場情緒的晴雨表。最近二元 CDD 指標的飆升表明，這些持有者可能將 108,000 美元以上的高峰視為戰略退出點。如果這種拋售壓力加劇，可能會導致市場波動加劇，並可能引發價格調整。

Bitcoin’s market outlook

比特幣的市場前景

Bitcoin has recorded a rollercoaster move in the past day. Particularly, following the FOMC news outcome yesterday along with the speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States, Bitcoin saw a significant plunge in its price dropping to as low as the $98,000 level.

比特幣在過去一天經歷了過山車般的走勢。特別是，隨著昨天 FOMC 的消息公佈以及美國聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆鮑威爾的講話，比特幣價格大幅下跌，跌至 98,000 美元的低點。

However, the latest price action has been quite interesting as BTC is showing a rebound. In the early hours of Thursday, Bitcoin saw a recovery in price after reclaiming the $100,000 to trade as high as above $105,000.

然而，隨著 BTC 出現反彈，最新的價格走勢非常有趣。週四凌晨，比特幣價格在收復 10 萬美元之後出現反彈，交易價格高達 10.5 萬美元以上。

Currently, Bitcoin has seen a retrace back to a price of $100,718, at the time of writing, marking a 3.5% decrease in the past day and roughly 6.6% reduction away from its all-time high (ATH).

目前，截至撰寫本文時，比特幣價格已回撤至 100,718 美元，較過去一天下跌 3.5%，較歷史高點 (ATH) 下跌約 6.6%。

Meanwhile, adding to Shayan’s narrative, another CryptoQuant analyst, Onatt, highlighted additional market indicators that hint at potential turbulence.

同時，除了 Shayan 的敘述之外，另一位 CryptoQuant 分析師 Onatt 也強調了暗示潛在動盪的其他市場指標。

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, is currently in negative territory, indicating increased selling pressure.

追蹤 Coinbase 與其他交易所之間價格差異的 Coinbase 溢價指數目前處於負值區域，顯示拋售壓力增加。

Related: Bitcoin price still mirroring bullish move from 2013, what to expect after hitting $108,000 ATH

相關：比特幣價格仍反映 2013 年以來的看漲走勢，觸及 108,000 美元後會發生什麼

Furthermore, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), a metric used to gauge profit-taking behavior, has shown sudden spikes.

此外，調整後的支出產出利潤率（aSOPR）（用於衡量獲利回吐行為的指標）已出現突然飆升。

According to Onatt, these signals collectively highlight the need for sustained institutional demand, particularly through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), to stabilize market conditions.

Onatt 表示，這些訊號共同強調了持續的機構需求的必要性，特別是透過比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）來穩定市場狀況。