比特幣 (BTC) 市場存在不確定性，相互矛盾的訊號凸顯了不穩定的市場勢頭

受歡迎的分析師 Alan Santana 在 TradingView 分析中提供了對比特幣當前狀態的見解，強調了月度圖表中觀察到的訊號的複雜性。

Seasoned analyst Alan Santana unveils his insights on Bitcoin's current standing in a TradingView analysis, highlighting the intricate signals observed in the monthly chart.

經驗豐富的分析師 Alan Santana 在 TradingView 分析中公佈了他對比特幣當前狀況的見解，強調了月度圖表中觀察到的複雜訊號。

Santana commences his analysis by highlighting the "tricky situation" posed by Bitcoin's movements, as the chart offers varying readings depending on one's perspective. Technical analysis provides consistent signals; however, the subtleties of market sentiment and external factors can alter the interpretation of these signals.

桑塔納在分析開始時強調了比特幣走勢帶來的“棘手局面”，因為圖表根據個人的觀點提供了不同的讀數。技術分析提供一致的訊號；然而，市場情緒和外部因素的微妙性可能會改變對這些訊號的解釋。

Conflicting Signals Highlight Bitcoin's Uncertain Market Momentum

相互矛盾的訊號凸顯了比特幣市場動力的不確定性

Santana begins by observing Bitcoin's recent monthly performance. Breaking an otherwise alternating trend of red and green monthly candles, this month marks the first time for two consecutive green closes since Bitcoin's top in March 2024.

桑塔納首先觀察了比特幣最近的月度表現。本月打破了紅色和綠色每月蠟燭交替的趨勢，標誌著自 2024 年 3 月比特幣見頂以來首次連續兩次以綠色收盤。

Despite this strong closing, volume paints a different tale. Santana notes the shockingly low trade volume, among the lowest in years, hinting at possible weakness even with price increases. Furthermore, the monthly RSI has dropped, with October closing at 66 instead of March's 76.

儘管收盤強勁，但成交量卻描繪了一個不同的故事。桑塔納指出，貿易量低得驚人，是多年來的最低水平，這暗示即使價格上漲，貿易量也可能疲軟。此外，月度 RSI 有所下降，10 月收於 66，而不是 3 月的 76。

This shift in perspective is highlighted by the RSI, which currently stands at 59.90, down from a previous high of 88, showcasing a strong bearish divergence when viewing weekly data. Such occurrences typically indicate approaching downward pressure, a crucial observation that Santana emphasizes.

RSI 突顯了這種觀點的轉變，目前 RSI 為 59.90，低於先前的高點 88，在查看每週數據時顯示出強烈的看跌背離。此類事件通常表示下行壓力正在逼近，這是桑塔納強調的重要觀察。

Adding to the complexity is the MACD, which usually shows a pattern for a bullish increase with a growing curve on the monthly level. However, the histogram has been declining since March. Unlike other bearish warnings, though, the weekly MACD shows a strong positive cross, further clouding the outlook.

MACD 增加了複雜性，它通常顯示出看漲成長的模式，且曲線在月度層級上不斷增長。然而，自三月以來，直方圖一直在下降。不過，與其他看跌警告不同的是，每週 MACD 顯示出強勁的正交叉，進一步為前景蒙上陰影。

October's candlestick pattern concluded in a neutral form, presenting neither clear support for a bullish nor a bearish trend. Santana explains that these conflicting signals showcase the market's unpredictability, as both support and resistance levels are challenged but not definitively breached.

10 月的燭台形態以中性形式結束，既沒有為看漲趨勢提供明確的支撐，也沒有為看跌趨勢提供明確的支撐。桑塔納解釋說，這些相互矛盾的訊號顯示了市場的不可預測性，因為支撐位和阻力位都受到挑戰，但並未最終被突破。

Bitcoin-Altcoin Dynamics: A Key Indicator for Market Direction

比特幣-山寨幣動態：市場方向的關鍵指標

Santana bifurcates his analysis into objective technical observations and his own subjective judgments. Objectively, the monthly chart of Bitcoin reveals a double-top pattern, a classic reversal indicator that suggests a possible downslip. This trend, coupled with ultra-low volume, usually precedes a market correction.

桑塔納將他的分析分為客觀的技術觀察和他自己的主觀判斷。客觀上，比特幣的月線圖揭示了雙頂模式，這是一個表明可能下跌的經典反轉指標。這種趨勢，加上超低成交量，通常會先於市場調整。

However, Santana notes that low volume could also indicate that a significant move is yet to come, allowing for multiple interpretations. While the lack of overall altcoin growth serves as another warning sign, the positive momentum observed in recent months counters the double-top.

然而，桑塔納指出，成交量低也可能表明重大舉措尚未到來，因此可以有多種解釋。雖然山寨幣整體缺乏增長是另一個警告信號，但近幾個月觀察到的積極勢頭抵消了雙頂。

During bull runs, altcoins typically move in tandem with Bitcoin, and the lack of such activity across the altcoin market suggests that Bitcoin's rally is isolated and perhaps unsustainable.

在牛市期間，山寨幣通常與比特幣同步波動，而整個山寨幣市場缺乏此類活動表明比特幣的反彈是孤立的，而且可能是不可持續的。

Interestingly, Santana observes that the interaction of Bitcoin with altcoins serves as a gauge for further developments. Usually, when Bitcoin consolidates or encounters resistance, altcoins experience substantial increases, with several assets gaining over 200-300% during recent pauses.

有趣的是，桑塔納觀察到比特幣與山寨幣的相互作用可以作為進一步發展的衡量標準。通常，當比特幣盤整或遇到阻力時，山寨幣會大幅上漲，一些資產在最近的停頓期間漲幅超過 200-300%。

Historically, a rising altcoin market complements the bullish scenario for Bitcoin. On the other hand, if Bitcoin stalls and altcoins begin to fall, it could indicate that Bitcoin is about to experience a downturn.

從歷史上看，山寨幣市場的上漲補充了比特幣的看漲前景。另一方面，如果比特幣停滯並且山寨幣開始下跌，則可能表明比特幣即將經歷低迷。

This correlation was evident in 2021, where altcoins peaked in April or May, while Bitcoin went on to reach a higher high in November, deviating from the broader altcoin market. Santana attributes some of this to the inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic, which distorted the chart as Bitcoin's higher high arrived as an unusual correction influenced by an increased money supply.

這種相關性在 2021 年很明顯，山寨幣在 4 月或 5 月達到頂峰，而比特幣在 11 月繼續達到更高的高點，偏離了更廣泛的山寨幣市場。 Santana 將部分原因歸因於 COVID-19 大流行期間的通貨膨脹，由於貨幣供應量增加影響比特幣出現異常修正，導致圖表出現扭曲。

Limited Investor Participation May Hinder Bitcoin Bull Run Potential

投資者參與有限可能會阻礙比特幣牛市的潛力

The market currently exhibits similar tendencies, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs while Ethereum and other major altcoins trade at relatively low levels, suggesting that only a small segment of investors is riding this wave.

目前市場也表現出類似的趨勢，比特幣創下歷史新高，而以太坊和其他主要山寨幣的交易水平相對較低，這表明只有一小部分投資者正在乘風破浪。

Santana highlights that the present scenario does not fully support a sustained bull cycle, as a broad-based participation is crucial for such a scenario. He notes that the lack of involvement from a larger player base causes most of the market to remain stagnant while Bitcoin experiences a rally, an imbalance that might ultimately curtail the coin's surge.

桑塔納強調，目前的情況並不完全支持持續的牛市週期，因為廣泛的參與對於這種情況至關重要。他指出，缺乏更多玩家的參與導致大部分市場保持停滯，而比特幣經歷了反彈，這種不平衡可能最終會抑制比特幣的飆升。

Santana concludes with a projection, stating that a downturn is likely before Bitcoin reaches another significant peak. He identifies a Fibonacci extension level of $102,000 as the next key target, but he cautions that reaching this level could trigger a significant decline.

桑塔納最後做出了一項預測，指出在比特幣達到另一個重要高峰之前，可能會出現低迷。他將 102,000 美元的斐波那契擴展水平確定為下一個關鍵目標，但他警告說，達到該水平可能會引發大幅下跌。

He notes that sharp corrections in either direction can startle market participants, sometimes leading them to clear out their holdings as they exceed expectations.

他指出，任一方向的大幅調整都會令市場參與者感到震驚，有時會導致他們在超出預期時清倉。

Just as Bitcoin has the capacity to surpass optimistic targets during a rally, its severe corrections can reach depths that liquidate a sizable amount of leveraged holdings. Meanwhile, as of writing, BTC is trading at about $69,308.19, down 4.34% over the last 24 hours.

就像比特幣有能力在反彈期間超越樂觀目標一樣，其嚴重修正也可能達到清算大量槓桿持股的深度。同時，截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格約為 69,308.19 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌 4.34%。