比特币 (BTC) 市场存在不确定性，相互矛盾的信号凸显了不稳定的市场势头

受欢迎的分析师 Alan Santana 在 TradingView 分析中提供了对比特币当前状态的见解，强调了月度图表中观察到的信号的复杂性。

Seasoned analyst Alan Santana unveils his insights on Bitcoin's current standing in a TradingView analysis, highlighting the intricate signals observed in the monthly chart.

经验丰富的分析师 Alan Santana 在 TradingView 分析中公布了他对比特币当前状况的见解，强调了月度图表中观察到的复杂信号。

Santana commences his analysis by highlighting the "tricky situation" posed by Bitcoin's movements, as the chart offers varying readings depending on one's perspective. Technical analysis provides consistent signals; however, the subtleties of market sentiment and external factors can alter the interpretation of these signals.

桑塔纳在分析开始时强调了比特币走势带来的“棘手局面”，因为图表根据个人的观点提供了不同的读数。技术分析提供一致的信号；然而，市场情绪和外部因素的微妙性可能会改变对这些信号的解释。

Conflicting Signals Highlight Bitcoin's Uncertain Market Momentum

相互矛盾的信号凸显了比特币市场动力的不确定性

Santana begins by observing Bitcoin's recent monthly performance. Breaking an otherwise alternating trend of red and green monthly candles, this month marks the first time for two consecutive green closes since Bitcoin's top in March 2024.

桑塔纳首先观察了比特币最近的月度表现。本月打破了红色和绿色每月蜡烛交替的趋势，标志着自 2024 年 3 月比特币见顶以来首次连续两次以绿色收盘。

Despite this strong closing, volume paints a different tale. Santana notes the shockingly low trade volume, among the lowest in years, hinting at possible weakness even with price increases. Furthermore, the monthly RSI has dropped, with October closing at 66 instead of March's 76.

尽管收盘强劲，成交量却描绘了一个不同的故事。桑塔纳指出，贸易量低得惊人，是多年来的最低水平，这暗示即使价格上涨，贸易量也可能疲软。此外，月度 RSI 有所下降，10 月份收于 66，而不是 3 月份的 76。

This shift in perspective is highlighted by the RSI, which currently stands at 59.90, down from a previous high of 88, showcasing a strong bearish divergence when viewing weekly data. Such occurrences typically indicate approaching downward pressure, a crucial observation that Santana emphasizes.

RSI 突显了这种观点的转变，目前 RSI 为 59.90，低于之前的高点 88，在查看每周数据时显示出强烈的看跌背离。此类事件通常表明下行压力正在逼近，这是桑塔纳强调的一个重要观察结果。

Adding to the complexity is the MACD, which usually shows a pattern for a bullish increase with a growing curve on the monthly level. However, the histogram has been declining since March. Unlike other bearish warnings, though, the weekly MACD shows a strong positive cross, further clouding the outlook.

MACD 增加了复杂性，它通常显示出看涨增长的模式，且曲线在月度水平上不断增长。然而，自三月份以来，直方图一直在下降。不过，与其他看跌警告不同的是，每周 MACD 显示出强劲的正交叉，进一步给前景蒙上阴影。

October's candlestick pattern concluded in a neutral form, presenting neither clear support for a bullish nor a bearish trend. Santana explains that these conflicting signals showcase the market's unpredictability, as both support and resistance levels are challenged but not definitively breached.

10 月份的烛台形态以中性形式结束，既没有为看涨趋势提供明确的支撑，也没有为看跌趋势提供明确的支撑。桑塔纳解释说，这些相互矛盾的信号显示了市场的不可预测性，因为支撑位和阻力位都受到挑战，但并未最终被突破。

Bitcoin-Altcoin Dynamics: A Key Indicator for Market Direction

比特币-山寨币动态：市场方向的关键指标

Santana bifurcates his analysis into objective technical observations and his own subjective judgments. Objectively, the monthly chart of Bitcoin reveals a double-top pattern, a classic reversal indicator that suggests a possible downslip. This trend, coupled with ultra-low volume, usually precedes a market correction.

桑塔纳将他的分析分为客观的技术观察和他自己的主观判断。客观上，比特币的月线图揭示了双顶模式，这是一个表明可能下跌的经典反转指标。这种趋势，加上超低成交量，通常先于市场调整。

However, Santana notes that low volume could also indicate that a significant move is yet to come, allowing for multiple interpretations. While the lack of overall altcoin growth serves as another warning sign, the positive momentum observed in recent months counters the double-top.

然而，桑塔纳指出，成交量低也可能表明重大举措尚未到来，因此可以有多种解释。虽然山寨币整体缺乏增长是另一个警告信号，但近几个月观察到的积极势头抵消了双顶。

During bull runs, altcoins typically move in tandem with Bitcoin, and the lack of such activity across the altcoin market suggests that Bitcoin's rally is isolated and perhaps unsustainable.

在牛市期间，山寨币通常与比特币同步波动，而整个山寨币市场缺乏此类活动表明比特币的反弹是孤立的，而且可能是不可持续的。

Interestingly, Santana observes that the interaction of Bitcoin with altcoins serves as a gauge for further developments. Usually, when Bitcoin consolidates or encounters resistance, altcoins experience substantial increases, with several assets gaining over 200-300% during recent pauses.

有趣的是，桑塔纳观察到比特币与山寨币的相互作用可以作为进一步发展的衡量标准。通常，当比特币盘整或遇到阻力时，山寨币会大幅上涨，一些资产在最近的停顿期间涨幅超过 200-300%。

Historically, a rising altcoin market complements the bullish scenario for Bitcoin. On the other hand, if Bitcoin stalls and altcoins begin to fall, it could indicate that Bitcoin is about to experience a downturn.

从历史上看，山寨币市场的上涨补充了比特币的看涨前景。另一方面，如果比特币停滞并且山寨币开始下跌，则可能表明比特币即将经历低迷。

This correlation was evident in 2021, where altcoins peaked in April or May, while Bitcoin went on to reach a higher high in November, deviating from the broader altcoin market. Santana attributes some of this to the inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic, which distorted the chart as Bitcoin's higher high arrived as an unusual correction influenced by an increased money supply.

这种相关性在 2021 年很明显，山寨币在 4 月或 5 月达到顶峰，而比特币在 11 月继续达到更高的高点，偏离了更广泛的山寨币市场。 Santana 将部分原因归因于 COVID-19 大流行期间的通货膨胀，由于货币供应量增加影响比特币出现异常修正，导致图表出现扭曲。

Limited Investor Participation May Hinder Bitcoin Bull Run Potential

投资者参与有限可能会阻碍比特币牛市的潜力

The market currently exhibits similar tendencies, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs while Ethereum and other major altcoins trade at relatively low levels, suggesting that only a small segment of investors is riding this wave.

目前市场也表现出类似的趋势，比特币创下历史新高，而以太坊和其他主要山寨币的交易水平相对较低，这表明只有一小部分投资者正在乘风破浪。

Santana highlights that the present scenario does not fully support a sustained bull cycle, as a broad-based participation is crucial for such a scenario. He notes that the lack of involvement from a larger player base causes most of the market to remain stagnant while Bitcoin experiences a rally, an imbalance that might ultimately curtail the coin's surge.

桑塔纳强调，目前的情况并不完全支持持续的牛市周期，因为广泛的参与对于这种情况至关重要。他指出，缺乏更多玩家的参与导致大部分市场保持停滞，而比特币却经历了反弹，这种不平衡可能最终会抑制比特币的飙升。

Santana concludes with a projection, stating that a downturn is likely before Bitcoin reaches another significant peak. He identifies a Fibonacci extension level of $102,000 as the next key target, but he cautions that reaching this level could trigger a significant decline.

桑塔纳最后做出了一项预测，指出在比特币达到另一个重要峰值之前，可能会出现低迷。他将 102,000 美元的斐波那契扩展水平确定为下一个关键目标，但他警告说，达到该水平可能会引发大幅下跌。

He notes that sharp corrections in either direction can startle market participants, sometimes leading them to clear out their holdings as they exceed expectations.

他指出，任一方向的大幅调整都会令市场参与者感到震惊，有时会导致他们在超出预期时清仓。

Just as Bitcoin has the capacity to surpass optimistic targets during a rally, its severe corrections can reach depths that liquidate a sizable amount of leveraged holdings. Meanwhile, as of writing, BTC is trading at about $69,308.19, down 4.34% over the last 24 hours.

正如比特币有能力在反弹期间超越乐观目标一样，其严重修正也可能达到清算大量杠杆持仓的深度。与此同时，截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格约为 69,308.19 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌 4.34%。