比特幣（BTC）市場重置可能正在為價格恢復奠定基礎

比特幣的市場已經進行了重置，在短短兩個月內就消除了超過100億美元的開放利息，導致分析師認為即將進行比特幣價格恢復。

Bitcoin’s market has seen a major reset, with over $10 billion in open interest wiped out in just two months, leading analysts to believe that a Bitcoin price recovery is imminent.

比特幣的市場已經進行了重置，在短短兩個月內就消除了超過100億美元的開放利息，導致分析師認為即將進行比特幣價格恢復。

According CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost’s latest market analysis post on X, on Jan. 17, Bitcoin’s (BTC) open interest hit a record $33 billion, signaling extreme leverage in the market. However, political uncertainty tied to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent actions led to a wave of liquidations.

CryptoQuant分析師Darkfost在1月17日在X上的最新市場分析文章表示，比特幣（BTC）開放興趣達到了創紀錄的330億美元，這表明了市場上的極端槓桿作用。但是，與前美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近採取的行動有關的政治不確定性導致清算浪潮。

Subsequently, nearly $10 billion in open interest vanished between Feb. 20 and Mar. 4. This sharp decline pushed Bitcoin’s 90-day futures open interest change down to -14%, often signaling market resets before price recoveries. Analysts believe that eliminating excessive speculation, these stages provide a more stable basis for future growth.

隨後，在2月20日至3月4日之間，將近100億美元的開放利息消失了。這種急劇下降將比特幣的90天期貨開放息息降低到-14％，通常在價格恢復之前重置市場。分析師認為，消除過度的猜測，這些階段為未來增長提供了更穩定的基礎。

Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is still optimistic despite the decline. According to economist Timothy Peterson, April and October are usually when Bitcoin experiences the biggest seasonal gains. Peterson’s most recent analysis reveals that Bitcoin might hit new all-time highs before June, with a median target of $126,000.

儘管有所下降，但比特幣的長期前景仍然樂觀。根據經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的說法，通常是比特幣經歷最大的季節性收益的時候。彼得森（Peterson）的最新分析表明，比特幣可能在6月之前達到了新的歷史新高，中位目標為126,000美元。

Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range.

比特幣正在其歷史季節性範圍的低端交易。

Nearly all of Bitcoin's annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October.

比特幣幾乎所有的年度績效都發生在2個月內：四月和十月。

It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June. pic.twitter.com/p8upTNAkKH

在六月之前，比特幣完全可能達到歷史新高。 pic.twitter.com/p8uptnakkh

— Tim Peterson (@timonomics) March 14, 2024

- 蒂姆·彼得森（@Timonomics）2024年3月14日

In addition, his “Lowest Price Forward” model, which estimates a price level that Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below in future trading, indicates that Bitcoin’s price floor has now risen to $69,000, with a 95% chance of holding. Past bull markets have shown that corrections like Bitcoin’s recent 30% pullback often precede strong rebounds.

此外，他的“最低價格前進”型號估計比特幣不太可能在未來的交易中下降到以後的價格水平，這表明比特幣的價格底部現已上漲至69,000美元，持有的機會為95％。過去的牛市表明，像比特幣最近的30％回調這樣的校正通常在強勁的籃板之前。

However, not all analysts are fully bullish. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, warned on a Mar. 15 YouTube stream that Bitcoin’s bull cycle could be in jeopardy if it drops below the 2024 highs, which is in the lower $70,000s. Cowen compares the current cycle to 2017 when Bitcoin retested the prior year’s high.

但是，並非所有分析師都完全看好。 Benjamin Cowen是Into the Cryptoverse的創始人，在3月15日的YouTube流上警告說，如果比特幣的公牛週期降至2024高的高點（較低的70,000美元）。 Cowen將當前週期與2017年比特幣進行了比較，當時比特幣重新測試了上一年的高點。

He suggests the bull market might be over if Bitcoin closes in the low $60,000s. Additionally, according to Cowen, holding above $70,000-$73,000 would maintain the market’s structure. Bitcoin may signal a macro lower high later in the year if it drops below this level, which could result in a more bearish outlook by Q3.

他建議，如果比特幣以60,000美元的價格關閉，牛市可能會結束。此外，根據科恩的說法，持有超過70,000美元至73,000美元的股份將維持市場的結構。如果比特幣降至此水平以下，則可能會在今年晚些時候降低宏觀高。

Bitcoin is still in a crucial consolidation phase, with its current price at $82,900 at the time of press. If past trends hold, this reset could pave the way for another strong rally in the coming months.

比特幣仍處於關鍵合併階段，當前的價格為82,900美元。如果過去的趨勢成立，那麼在接下來的幾個月中，這種重置可能為另一場強烈的集會鋪平道路。