比特币（BTC）市场重置可能正在为价格恢复奠定基础

比特币的市场已经进行了重置，在短短两个月内就消除了超过100亿美元的开放利息，导致分析师认为即将进行比特币价格恢复。

Bitcoin’s market has seen a major reset, with over $10 billion in open interest wiped out in just two months, leading analysts to believe that a Bitcoin price recovery is imminent.

比特币的市场已经进行了重置，在短短两个月内就消除了超过100亿美元的开放利息，导致分析师认为即将进行比特币价格恢复。

According CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost’s latest market analysis post on X, on Jan. 17, Bitcoin’s (BTC) open interest hit a record $33 billion, signaling extreme leverage in the market. However, political uncertainty tied to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent actions led to a wave of liquidations.

CryptoQuant分析师Darkfost在1月17日在X上的最新市场分析文章表示，比特币（BTC）开放兴趣达到了创纪录的330亿美元，这表明了市场上的极端杠杆作用。但是，与前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近采取的行动有关的政治不确定性导致清算浪潮。

Subsequently, nearly $10 billion in open interest vanished between Feb. 20 and Mar. 4. This sharp decline pushed Bitcoin’s 90-day futures open interest change down to -14%, often signaling market resets before price recoveries. Analysts believe that eliminating excessive speculation, these stages provide a more stable basis for future growth.

随后，在2月20日至3月4日之间，将近100亿美元的开放利息消失了。这种急剧下降将比特币的90天期货开放息息降低到-14％，通常在价格恢复之前重置市场。分析师认为，消除过度的猜测，这些阶段为未来增长提供了更稳定的基础。

Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is still optimistic despite the decline. According to economist Timothy Peterson, April and October are usually when Bitcoin experiences the biggest seasonal gains. Peterson’s most recent analysis reveals that Bitcoin might hit new all-time highs before June, with a median target of $126,000.

尽管有所下降，但比特币的长期前景仍然乐观。根据经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的说法，通常是比特币经历最大的季节性收益的时候。彼得森（Peterson）的最新分析表明，比特币可能在6月之前达到了新的历史新高，中位目标为126,000美元。

Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range.

比特币正在其历史季节性范围的低端交易。

Nearly all of Bitcoin's annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October.

比特币几乎所有的年度绩效都发生在2个月内：四月和十月。

It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June. pic.twitter.com/p8upTNAkKH

在六月之前，比特币完全可能达到历史新高。 pic.twitter.com/p8uptnakkh

— Tim Peterson (@timonomics) March 14, 2024

- 蒂姆·彼得森（@Timonomics）2024年3月14日

In addition, his “Lowest Price Forward” model, which estimates a price level that Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below in future trading, indicates that Bitcoin’s price floor has now risen to $69,000, with a 95% chance of holding. Past bull markets have shown that corrections like Bitcoin’s recent 30% pullback often precede strong rebounds.

此外，他的“最低价格前进”型号估计比特币不太可能在未来的交易中下降到以后的价格水平，这表明比特币的价格底部现已上涨至69,000美元，持有的机会为95％。过去的牛市表明，像比特币最近的30％回调这样的校正通常在强劲的篮板之前。

However, not all analysts are fully bullish. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, warned on a Mar. 15 YouTube stream that Bitcoin’s bull cycle could be in jeopardy if it drops below the 2024 highs, which is in the lower $70,000s. Cowen compares the current cycle to 2017 when Bitcoin retested the prior year’s high.

但是，并非所有分析师都完全看好。 Benjamin Cowen是Into the Cryptoverse的创始人，在3月15日的YouTube流上警告说，如果比特币的公牛周期降至2024高的高点（较低的70,000美元）。 Cowen将当前周期与2017年比特币进行了比较，当时比特币重新测试了上一年的高点。

He suggests the bull market might be over if Bitcoin closes in the low $60,000s. Additionally, according to Cowen, holding above $70,000-$73,000 would maintain the market’s structure. Bitcoin may signal a macro lower high later in the year if it drops below this level, which could result in a more bearish outlook by Q3.

他建议，如果比特币以60,000美元的价格关闭，牛市可能会结束。此外，根据科恩的说法，持有超过70,000美元至73,000美元的股份将维持市场的结构。如果比特币降至此水平以下，则可能会在今年晚些时候降低宏观高。

Bitcoin is still in a crucial consolidation phase, with its current price at $82,900 at the time of press. If past trends hold, this reset could pave the way for another strong rally in the coming months.

比特币仍处于关键合并阶段，当前的价格为82,900美元。如果过去的趋势成立，那么在接下来的几个月中，这种重置可能为另一场强烈的集会铺平道路。