Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes預測，比特幣（BTC）將在跌至76,500美元之前達到110,000美元

隨著美聯儲轉移到量化寬鬆的情況下，Bitmex的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes似乎有信心下注比特幣，然後跌至110,000美元，然後降至76,500美元。

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is known for his bold predictions in the cryptocurrency market. In a recent X post, Hayes shared his optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's price movements, which he believes will reach $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500.

Bitmex的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes以他在加密貨幣市場中的大膽預測而聞名。在最近的X帖子中，海斯分享了他對比特幣價格變動的樂觀前景，他認為這將達到110,000美元，然後又回到76,500美元。

This prediction is linked to his observations of the Federal Reserve's actions and the broader economic landscape. According to Hayes, the Fed appears to be shifting from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries.

這一預測與他對美聯儲的行動和更廣泛的經濟格局的觀察有關。根據海耶斯的說法，美聯儲似乎正在從定量擰緊（QT）轉變為國庫的定量寬鬆（QE）。

Furthermore, he noted that tariffs no longer seem to matter, and the focus has shifted to inflation, which is being viewed as "transitory."

此外，他指出關稅似乎不再重要，重點已轉移到通貨膨脹上，這被視為“暫時性”。

"The Fed is shifting out of QT to QE for Treasuries. They can’t get inflation down, so they're pivoting. Tariffs no longer matter; inflation is transitory, and they're pivoting to QE. I'm buying the apex of this bull market in March 2024 around $110,000, and we'll see lower lows in December 2024 around $76,500," stated Hayes.

“美聯儲正在從QT轉移到QE，以供國債。他們無法降低通貨膨脹，因此它們正在關注。關稅不再是事實；通貨膨脹是短期的，它們是臨時的，而且他們在量化寬鬆的情況下，我在2024年3月購買了該公牛市場的頂點，大約在2024年12月，大約在2024年12月，大約在2024年，大約76,500美元。

However, it remains to be seen whether this another prediction will play out as expected.

但是，這一預測是否會如預期的那樣發揮作用還有待觀察。

This analysis comes as prediction markets are placing an overwhelming probability on the Federal Reserve ending its QT program by May. According to data from Polymarket, there's a 100% likelihood that the Fed will cease QT by April 30.

這項分析是因為預測市場在五月終止其QT計劃的聯邦儲備中施加了壓倒性的概率。根據Polymarket的數據，美聯儲在4月30日之前停止QT的可能性為100％。

The end of QT could be a significant catalyst for risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, as it's expected to drive up asset prices due to the liquidity injected into the market by the central bank.

QT的結束可能是風險資產（例如加密貨幣）的重要催化劑，因為由於中央銀行注入了市場的流動性，預計將推動資產價格上漲。

In September 2024, Hayes previously reversed a bullish view on Bitcoin, which he had shared in August, saying he had been wrong about the apex of the market.

2024年9月，海耶斯（Hayes）此前扭轉了對比特幣的看漲看法，他在八月份分享了比特幣，稱他對市場的頂點錯了。

In a commentary for news outlets, he stated that he reserves the "right to change my mind as the situation evolves."

在新聞媒體的評論中，他說他保留“隨著情況的發展，改變我的想法的權利”。

In a Feb. 25 X post, Hayes warned that Bitcoin's price could fall as low as $70,000 if large hedge funds unwind their positions in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

在2月25日的帖子中，海斯警告說，如果大型對沖基金在現貨比特幣交易所交易資金中放鬆頭寸，比特幣的價格可能會低至70,000美元。

However, less than a month later, as market dynamics evolved, Hayes adjusted his analysis, declaring in a March 20 X post that Bitcoin's price had likely reached its bottom at $77,000.

但是，不到一個月後，隨著市場動態的發展，海耶斯調整了他的分析，並在3月20 x的帖子中宣布，比特幣的價格可能以77,000美元的價格達到了最低點。