Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes预测，比特币（BTC）将在跌至76,500美元之前达到110,000美元

随着美联储转移到量化宽松的情况下，Bitmex的联合创始人Arthur Hayes似乎有信心下注比特币，然后跌至110,000美元，然后降至76,500美元。

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is known for his bold predictions in the cryptocurrency market. In a recent X post, Hayes shared his optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's price movements, which he believes will reach $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500.

Bitmex的联合创始人Arthur Hayes以他在加密货币市场中的大胆预测而闻名。在最近的X帖子中，海斯分享了他对比特币价格变动的乐观前景，他认为这将达到110,000美元，然后又回到76,500美元。

This prediction is linked to his observations of the Federal Reserve's actions and the broader economic landscape. According to Hayes, the Fed appears to be shifting from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries.

这一预测与他对美联储的行动和更广泛的经济格局的观察有关。根据海耶斯的说法，美联储似乎正在从定量拧紧（QT）转变为国库的定量宽松（QE）。

Furthermore, he noted that tariffs no longer seem to matter, and the focus has shifted to inflation, which is being viewed as "transitory."

此外，他指出关税似乎不再重要，重点已转移到通货膨胀上，这被视为“暂时性”。

"The Fed is shifting out of QT to QE for Treasuries. They can’t get inflation down, so they're pivoting. Tariffs no longer matter; inflation is transitory, and they're pivoting to QE. I'm buying the apex of this bull market in March 2024 around $110,000, and we'll see lower lows in December 2024 around $76,500," stated Hayes.

“美联储正在从QT转移到QE，以供国债。他们无法降低通货膨胀，因此它们正在关注。关税不再是事实；通货膨胀是短期的，它们是临时的，而且他们在量化宽松的情况下，我在2024年3月购买了该公牛市场的顶点，大约在2024年12月，大约在2024年12月，大约在2024年，大约76,500美元。

However, it remains to be seen whether this another prediction will play out as expected.

但是，这一预测是否会如预期的那样发挥作用还有待观察。

This analysis comes as prediction markets are placing an overwhelming probability on the Federal Reserve ending its QT program by May. According to data from Polymarket, there's a 100% likelihood that the Fed will cease QT by April 30.

这项分析是因为预测市场在五月终止其QT计划的联邦储备中施加了压倒性的概率。根据Polymarket的数据，美联储在4月30日之前停止QT的可能性为100％。

The end of QT could be a significant catalyst for risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, as it's expected to drive up asset prices due to the liquidity injected into the market by the central bank.

QT的结束可能是风险资产（例如加密货币）的重要催化剂，因为由于中央银行注入了市场的流动性，预计将推动资产价格上涨。

In September 2024, Hayes previously reversed a bullish view on Bitcoin, which he had shared in August, saying he had been wrong about the apex of the market.

2024年9月，海耶斯（Hayes）此前扭转了对比特币的看涨看法，他在八月份分享了比特币，称他对市场的顶点错了。

In a commentary for news outlets, he stated that he reserves the "right to change my mind as the situation evolves."

在新闻媒体的评论中，他说他保留“随着情况的发展，改变我的想法的权利”。

In a Feb. 25 X post, Hayes warned that Bitcoin's price could fall as low as $70,000 if large hedge funds unwind their positions in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

在2月25日的帖子中，海斯警告说，如果大型对冲基金在现货比特币交易所交易资金中放松头寸，比特币的价格可能会低至70,000美元。

However, less than a month later, as market dynamics evolved, Hayes adjusted his analysis, declaring in a March 20 X post that Bitcoin's price had likely reached its bottom at $77,000.

但是，不到一个月后，随着市场动态的发展，海耶斯调整了他的分析，并在3月20 x的帖子中宣布，比特币的价格可能以77,000美元的价格达到了最低点。