比特幣（BTC）期貨開放興趣下降了35％，信號減少了投機和對沖活動

由於比特幣的歷史最高水平（ATH），期貨開放興趣下降了35％，從570億美元減少到370億美元。這種收縮是猜測和對沖活動減少的說明信號，這表明市場參與者之間的風險更大。

In the realm of Bitcoin markets, significant changes in futures open interest have recently come to light, offering valuable insights into the prevailing market sentiment. As of recent data from Glassnode, Futures open interest has dropped from $57 billion to $37 billion since Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH), signaling a reduction in speculation and hedging activity.

在比特幣市場的領域中，最近揭露了期貨開放興趣的重大變化，為現行市場情緒提供了寶貴的見解。截至GlassNode的最新數據，自比特幣歷史最高高（ATH）以來，期貨開放興趣已從570億美元下降到370億美元，這表明猜測和對沖活動的減少。

This contraction, amounting to 35%, highlights a broader risk-off sentiment among market participants, who are pulling back from aggressive positioning. To elaborate, Futures open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts in the market, representing the level of engagement and speculative activity. A decrease in open interest typically indicates that fewer market participants are willing to take on risk, which can signal a cooling of bullish sentiment and a shift towards caution.

這種收縮佔35％的收縮，突出了市場參與者的更廣泛的風險情緒，他們正在從積極的位置中退縮。為了詳細說明，期貨開放利息是指市場上未償還期貨合約的總數，代表了參與度和投機活動的水平。開放興趣的減少通常表明，更少的市場參與者願意承擔風險，這可能表明看漲的情緒和謹慎的轉變。

The substantial drop from $57 billion to $37 billion reflects a weakening of the eagerness to bet on Bitcoin's price movements, shifting the focus away from taking large positions in futures contracts. This can be attributed to a variety of factors, including concerns over market volatility and the broader macroeconomic environment, leading investors to adopt a more cautious stance.

從570億美元下降到370億美元的大幅下降，反映出對押注比特幣價格變動的渴望減弱，這使重點從期貨合約中佔據了很大的職位。這可以歸因於多種因素，包括對市場波動和更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境的擔憂，導致投資者採取更加謹慎的立場。

This reduced liquidity and speculation may not only dampen price action but also point to an overall shift in investor sentiment. In times of heightened uncertainty, many traders and institutional investors adopt a risk-off approach, steering away from assets that are perceived to be more volatile, shifting towards less risky assets and strategies.

這種減少的流動性和投機性不僅可能削弱價格行動，而且還表明投資者情緒的總體轉變。在不確定性加劇的時候，許多貿易商和機構投資者採用了一種風險方法，轉向被認為更加波動的資產，轉向風險較小的資產和策略。

Cash-and-carry Unwinding, ETF Outflows Impact Volatility

現金和攜帶的放鬆，ETF流出會影響波動

One key factor contributing to this shift is the unwinding of the cash-and-carry trade. The cash-and-carry trade involves buying an asset in the spot market while simultaneously selling futures contracts to lock in a profit, a strategy often used for hedging. This trade has been a popular method for investors to capitalize on the premium in Bitcoin futures markets. However, as the long-side bias weakens and traders become less interested in taking on leveraged positions, many are closing their cash-and-carry trades.

促成這一轉變的一個關鍵因素是休假現金和貨運貿易。現金交易涉及在現貨市場上購買資產，同時出售期貨合約以鎖定利潤，這是一種經常用於對沖的策略。這項貿易一直是投資者利用比特幣期貨市場的保費的一種流行方法。但是，隨著長時間偏見減弱，交易者對擔任槓桿頭寸的興趣越來越不感興趣，許多人正在關閉其現金交易。

As this trade unwinds, it adds selling pressure to the Bitcoin spot market, contributing to downward price movement. This is compounded by ETF outflows, which have been steadily increasing. ETFs are typically more liquid than spot markets but less liquid than futures contracts. Therefore, when ETFs experience outflows, they can amplify short-term volatility in the Bitcoin market. The outflows are a sign of reduced demand for Bitcoin through these vehicles, which, in the current market climate, may factor into the bearish sentiment and contribute to lower prices.

隨著該貿易的放鬆，它為比特幣現貨市場增加了銷售壓力，從而導致價格下降。 ETF流出穩步增加的ETF流出使它更加複雜。 ETF通常比現貨市場更液體，但液體比期貨合約少。因此，當ETF體驗流出時，它們可以擴大比特幣市場中的短期波動。流出是通過這些車輛減少對比特幣需求減少的標誌，在當前的市場氣候下，這可能會導致看跌的情緒並促進降低價格。

Finally, as futures markets close and ETF outflows continue, Bitcoin's spot market faces additional selling pressure. With lower liquidity in the futures markets and the unwinding of positions, spot prices are more vulnerable to sharp fluctuations. The combination of a decline in futures open interest and ETF outflows creates a dynamic where short-term volatility may increase, as the market struggles to absorb the selling pressure.

最後，隨著期貨市場的關閉和ETF流出的繼續，比特幣的現貨市場面臨額外的銷售壓力。由於期貨市場的流動性降低，而且位置的放鬆，現貨價格更容易受到急劇波動的影響。期貨開放興趣和ETF流出的結合創造了一種動態，在這種動態中，由於市場努力吸收銷售壓力，因此短期波動可能會增加。

The reduced liquidity in these alternative investment vehicles, such as ETFs, can amplify price swings. As spot markets react to these changes, Bitcoin's price could face heightened volatility, especially in the absence of significant buying support. Investors should be prepared for a period of uncertainty, where short-term price movements could be exaggerated by the shift in market positioning.

這些替代投資工具（例如ETF）的流動性降低可以擴大價格波動。隨著現場市場對這些變化的反應，比特幣的價格可能面臨著波動的提高，尤其是在沒有大量購買支持的情況下。投資者應為不確定性時期做好準備，在這種情況下，市場定位的轉變可能會誇大短期價格變動。