比特幣（BTC）交換供應神話由GlassNode揭穿：可用供應並沒有下降太多

鏈分析公司的玻璃節透明揭示了圍繞比特幣交換供應下降的流行神話不是真實的。

A popular cryptocurrency analytics firm, Glassnode, has revealed that a common belief about the decline in the Bitcoin exchange supply is inaccurate.

一家受歡迎的加密貨幣分析公司GlassNode透露，對比特幣交換供應下降的普遍信念是不准確的。

Available Bitcoin Supply Hasn't Dropped Much

可用的比特幣供應並沒有下降太多

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode discusses a misconception that is widely held in the Bitcoin community regarding the decline in the Balance on Exchanges throughout this cycle.

GlassNode在其最新的每週報告中討論了一種誤解，該概念在比特幣社區中廣泛舉行，即整個週期的交流平衡下降。

The “Balance on Exchanges” here refers to an on-chain indicator that measures the total amount of the cryptocurrency that is available in the wallets of all centralized exchanges.

這裡的“交流平衡”是指一個鍊鍊指標，該指標衡量了所有集中式交易所錢包中可用的加密貨幣總量。

Typically, one of the main reasons why investors deposit to the exchanges is for selling-related purposes. Hence, the Balance on Exchanges is often viewed as the available sell supply of the asset. Therefore, increases in the metric are considered bearish for BTC's price, as they suggest more holders are willing to part with their tokens. Similarly, declines can be assumed to be bullish.

通常，投資者存入交易所的主要原因之一是出於銷售相關的目的。因此，交流的餘額通常被視為資產的可用銷售供應。因此，按照BTC的價格，該度量的增加被認為是看跌，因為他們建議更多的持有人願意與他們的令牌分開。同樣，可以假定下降是看好的。

Now, here is the chart for the Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges shared by the analytics firm in the report:

現在，這是分析公司在報告中共享的交易所比特幣餘額的圖表：

From the graph, it can be observed that the Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges was sitting at 3.1 million BTC in July 2024, but today, it has declined to just 2.74 million BTC. This is a significant decrease and has led many to believe that this represents the creation of a ‘supply shock‘ for the asset.

從圖表中可以看出，交易所的比特幣餘額在2024年7月的BTC為310萬，但今天拒絕僅為274萬BTC。這是一個重大減少，並使許多人相信這代表了對資產的“供應衝擊”的創造。

However, Glassnode thinks otherwise, as the analytics firm has explained:

但是，正如分析公司所解釋的那樣，玻璃節也這樣認為：

Many interpret this as a form of supply shock caused by a mass of coins being withdrawn by individual investors—potentially creating upward price pressure—but the majority of this decline actually appears to be coins reshuffling into ETF wallets managed by custodians like Coinbase.

許多人將其解釋為一種由個別投資者撤回的硬幣引起的一種供應衝擊形式- 有可能造成向上的價格壓力- 但這種下降的大部分實際上似乎是由像Coinbase這樣的保管人管理的ETF錢包。

The spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are investment vehicles that were introduced in the US at the beginning of last year. They offer an alternate means of gaining exposure to the asset, in a mode that's familiar to traditional investors. This mode of BTC investing has quickly gained popularity and today, the spot ETFs control a notable amount of the supply.

現貨交易所貿易資金（ETF）是去年年初在美國引入的投資工具。他們提供了一種在傳統投資者熟悉的模式下獲得資產接觸資產的另一種方法。這種BTC投資模式已迅速越來越受歡迎，如今，ETFS控制著顯著的供應量。

“After the SEC approved Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, eight of eleven spot ETFs selected Coinbase as their custodian,” notes Glassnode. “As demand for ETF products picked up, a significant migration of coins from exchange wallets into Coinbase’s institutional custodian wallets occurred.”

“ SEC在2024年1月批准了比特幣現場ETF之後，十一位ETF中有八個選擇了Coinbase作為其保管人，” Glassnode指出。 “隨著對ETF產品的需求，發生了從交換錢包中大量遷移到Coinbase的機構託管錢包中。”

Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the holdings of these spot ETFs.

以下是分析公司共享的圖表，該圖表顯示了這些景點ETF持有的趨勢。

An interesting picture appears if the Bitcoin holdings of the spot ETFs are included with those of the exchanges.

如果將ETF的比特幣持有包含在交易所的股份中，則會出現一幅有趣的圖片。

From the graph, it's apparent that this combined indicator is sitting at a value of 3.04 million BTC right now. This is about the same level as where the market was at the start of 2024, right before the spot ETFs were introduced.

從圖中可以看出，該組合指標目前為304億BTC。這與2024年初的市場相同，就在引入現場ETF之前。

Based on this, the analytics firm has concluded that the apparent decline in the Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges is more likely to represent a shift in market structure, rather than a decrease in the available sell supply.

基於此，分析公司得出的結論是，交易所比特幣平衡的明顯下降更有可能代表市場結構的轉變，而不是可用的售貨員供應量的下降。

BTC Price

BTC價格

Bitcoin has made recovery of about 3% in the past day, which has taken its price beyond $105,000.

比特幣在過去的一天中恢復了約3％，其價格超過了105,000美元。