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經驗豐富的交易員 Peter Brandt 傾向於看空比特幣 (BTC),因為基準加密貨幣的價格比歷史最高水準低 17%。
Seasoned trader Peter Brandt is leaning bearish on Bitcoin (BTC) as the cryptocurrency trades about 17% below its all-time high, with new signals suggesting that BTC could be set for a steep downward move.
經驗豐富的交易員 Peter Brandt 傾向於看空比特幣 (BTC),因為該加密貨幣的交易價格比歷史高點低約 17%,新訊號表明 BTC 可能會大幅下跌。
Bitcoin Price Action Today
今日比特幣價格走勢
Bitcoin price today flounders around $62,333.63, showing a 0.32% decrease in the past 24 hours and a 1.23% decline over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.
根據 CoinGecko 的數據,比特幣價格今天徘徊在 62,333.63 美元左右,過去 24 小時內下跌 0.32%,過去 7 天下跌 1.23%。
Over the past 30 days, the cryptocurrency has shown a 2.3% decrease. The cryptocurrency is now trading about 17% below its March all-time high of $73,737, as shown by CoinGecko data.
在過去 30 天裡,加密貨幣下跌了 2.3%。 CoinGecko 數據顯示,該加密貨幣目前的交易價格比 3 月歷史高點 73,737 美元低約 17%。
Bitcoin price chart. Source: TradingView
比特幣價格圖表。來源:TradingView
Chart expert Brandt has warned of a potential 75% plunge, citing a historical price trend for his bearish outlook. In his post on X, he noted that Bitcoin would typically experience such an intense pullback after failing to register a new record high within 30 weeks after posting its previous price peak.
圖表專家 Brandt 警告稱,價格可能會暴跌 75%,並以歷史價格趨勢為由,對他的前景持悲觀態度。他在 X 上的貼文中指出,比特幣在創下先前價格高峰後的 30 週內未能創下新紀錄高點後,通常會經歷如此劇烈的回調。
“Markets That Don’t Go Up Usually Can’t Go Up” – Peter Brandt on BTC Price Action
「不漲的市場通常不會漲」—Peter Brandt 談 BTC 價格走勢
In his recent analysis, legendary trader Peter Brandt highlighted a crucial observation regarding Bitcoin's price movements throughout the years.
在他最近的分析中,傳奇交易員彼得布蘭特強調了對多年來比特幣價格走勢的一個重要觀察。
According to Brandt, whenever Bitcoin fails to reach a new all-time high (ATH) within 30 weeks of setting the previous peak, the cryptocurrency tends to experience a significant decline of around 75%.
Brandt 表示,每當比特幣在創下前一個高峰後 30 週內未能達到新的歷史高點 (ATH) 時,加密貨幣往往會經歷 75% 左右的大幅下跌。
This observation is based on his analysis of past Bitcoin price movements, which have followed a particular pattern.
這項觀察是基於他對過去比特幣價格走勢的分析,比特幣價格走勢遵循特定的模式。
Brandt also noted the old maxim that says, “Markets that don’t go up usually can’t go up.” He also emphasized that his analysis is just a market observation, not an opinion. “I am always amused by people who confuse a market observation with a market opinion. Drivers who cannot turn their heads in both directions always end up in an accident,” the legendary trader added.
布蘭特還提到了一句古老的格言:“不上漲的市場通常不會上漲。”他也強調,他的分析只是市場觀察,而不是意見。 「我總是對那些混淆市場觀察和市場觀點的人感到好笑。不能向兩個方向轉動頭的司機最終總是會發生事故。
Bitcoiners On Reddit Discussed Brandt's Analysis Further
Reddit 上的比特幣愛好者進一步討論了 Brandt 的分析
Brandt's analysis sparked further discussion among Bitcoiners on Reddit, with some users delving deeper into the implications of his observation.
布蘭特的分析引發了 Reddit 上比特幣愛好者的進一步討論,一些用戶更深入地研究了他的觀察結果的含義。
One user pointed out that Brandt's analysis seems to align with the Wyckoffian market cycle, which suggests that after a massive bull run, there's usually a trading range followed by a steep decline.
一位用戶指出,布蘭特的分析似乎與威科夫市場週期一致,這表明在大規模牛市之後,通常會出現一個交易區間,然後急劇下跌。
Others noted that Brandt's analysis is primarily based on past movements and might not necessarily hold true in the future, especially considering the external factors that could influence Bitcoin's price.
其他人指出,布蘭特的分析主要基於過去的趨勢,未來可能不一定成立,特別是考慮到可能影響比特幣價格的外部因素。
When asked whether he is a Bitcoiner or a chart trader, Brandt revealed that Bitcoin is the “largest single, tradeable asset” in his net worth.
當被問及他是比特幣愛好者還是圖表交易員時,布蘭特透露,比特幣是他淨資產中「最大的單一可交易資產」。
Bitcoin Is Two Weeks Away From Recording Its Longest-Ever Sideways Post-Halving
距離減半後比特幣創下有史以來最長的橫盤整理還有兩週時間
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is on track to register its longest sideways phase after a halving event. In particular, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju observed on Friday that the alpha crypto has only 14 days to enter a parabolic rally if history repeats itself.
同時,比特幣預計將在減半事件後迎來最長的橫盤階段。特別是,CryptoQuant 創辦人 Ki Young Ju 週五觀察到,如果歷史重演,阿爾法加密貨幣只有 14 天的時間進入拋物線反彈。
“285 days have passed since the bitcoin halving,” Young Ju wrote on X. “If there is no bull market in 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways post-halving in history.”
Young Ju在X上寫道:“比特幣減半已經過去了285天。如果14天內沒有牛市,這將是歷史上最長的減半後橫盤。”
Bitcoin halvings happen quadrennially and reduce the block rewards to miners by 50%. Following previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin has historically set new lifetime highs.
比特幣減半每四年發生一次,礦工的區塊獎勵減少 50%。在先前的減半之後,比特幣的價格創下了歷史新高。
However, the cryptocurrency has mostly languished in the $59,000-$65,000 range since the April halving, closing in on a 300-day sideways action record from 2016.
然而,自 4 月減半以來,加密貨幣大多徘徊在 59,000 美元至 65,000 美元區間,接近 2016 年以來的 300 天橫盤整理記錄。
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