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经验丰富的交易员 Peter Brandt 倾向于看空比特币 (BTC),因为基准加密货币的价格比历史最高水平低 17%。
Seasoned trader Peter Brandt is leaning bearish on Bitcoin (BTC) as the cryptocurrency trades about 17% below its all-time high, with new signals suggesting that BTC could be set for a steep downward move.
经验丰富的交易员 Peter Brandt 倾向于看空比特币 (BTC),因为该加密货币的交易价格比历史高点低约 17%,新信号表明 BTC 可能会大幅下跌。
Bitcoin Price Action Today
今日比特币价格走势
Bitcoin price today flounders around $62,333.63, showing a 0.32% decrease in the past 24 hours and a 1.23% decline over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.
根据 CoinGecko 的数据,比特币价格今天徘徊在 62,333.63 美元左右,过去 24 小时内下跌 0.32%,过去 7 天下跌 1.23%。
Over the past 30 days, the cryptocurrency has shown a 2.3% decrease. The cryptocurrency is now trading about 17% below its March all-time high of $73,737, as shown by CoinGecko data.
在过去 30 天里,加密货币下跌了 2.3%。 CoinGecko 数据显示,该加密货币目前的交易价格比 3 月份历史高点 73,737 美元低约 17%。
Bitcoin price chart. Source: TradingView
比特币价格图表。来源:TradingView
Chart expert Brandt has warned of a potential 75% plunge, citing a historical price trend for his bearish outlook. In his post on X, he noted that Bitcoin would typically experience such an intense pullback after failing to register a new record high within 30 weeks after posting its previous price peak.
图表专家 Brandt 警告称,价格可能会暴跌 75%,并以历史价格趋势为由,对他的前景持悲观态度。他在 X 上的帖子中指出,比特币在创下之前价格峰值后 30 周内未能创下新纪录高点后,通常会经历如此剧烈的回调。
“Markets That Don’t Go Up Usually Can’t Go Up” – Peter Brandt on BTC Price Action
“不上涨的市场通常不会上涨”——Peter Brandt 谈 BTC 价格走势
In his recent analysis, legendary trader Peter Brandt highlighted a crucial observation regarding Bitcoin's price movements throughout the years.
在他最近的分析中,传奇交易员彼得·布兰特强调了对多年来比特币价格走势的一个重要观察。
According to Brandt, whenever Bitcoin fails to reach a new all-time high (ATH) within 30 weeks of setting the previous peak, the cryptocurrency tends to experience a significant decline of around 75%.
Brandt 表示,每当比特币在创下前一个峰值后 30 周内未能达到新的历史高点 (ATH) 时,加密货币往往会经历 75% 左右的大幅下跌。
This observation is based on his analysis of past Bitcoin price movements, which have followed a particular pattern.
这一观察基于他对过去比特币价格走势的分析,比特币价格走势遵循特定的模式。
Brandt also noted the old maxim that says, “Markets that don’t go up usually can’t go up.” He also emphasized that his analysis is just a market observation, not an opinion. “I am always amused by people who confuse a market observation with a market opinion. Drivers who cannot turn their heads in both directions always end up in an accident,” the legendary trader added.
布兰特还提到了一句古老的格言:“不上涨的市场通常不会上涨。”他还强调,他的分析只是市场观察,而不是意见。 “我总是对那些混淆市场观察和市场观点的人感到好笑。不能向两个方向转动头的司机最终总是会发生事故。”这位传奇交易员补充道。
Bitcoiners On Reddit Discussed Brandt's Analysis Further
Reddit 上的比特币爱好者进一步讨论了 Brandt 的分析
Brandt's analysis sparked further discussion among Bitcoiners on Reddit, with some users delving deeper into the implications of his observation.
布兰特的分析引发了 Reddit 上比特币爱好者的进一步讨论,一些用户更深入地研究了他的观察结果的含义。
One user pointed out that Brandt's analysis seems to align with the Wyckoffian market cycle, which suggests that after a massive bull run, there's usually a trading range followed by a steep decline.
一位用户指出,布兰特的分析似乎与威科夫市场周期一致,这表明在大规模牛市之后,通常会出现一个交易区间,然后急剧下跌。
Others noted that Brandt's analysis is primarily based on past movements and might not necessarily hold true in the future, especially considering the external factors that could influence Bitcoin's price.
其他人指出,布兰特的分析主要基于过去的走势,未来可能不一定成立,特别是考虑到可能影响比特币价格的外部因素。
When asked whether he is a Bitcoiner or a chart trader, Brandt revealed that Bitcoin is the “largest single, tradeable asset” in his net worth.
当被问及他是比特币爱好者还是图表交易员时,布兰特透露,比特币是他净资产中“最大的单一可交易资产”。
Bitcoin Is Two Weeks Away From Recording Its Longest-Ever Sideways Post-Halving
距离减半后比特币创下有史以来最长的横盘整理还有两周时间
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is on track to register its longest sideways phase after a halving event. In particular, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju observed on Friday that the alpha crypto has only 14 days to enter a parabolic rally if history repeats itself.
与此同时,比特币有望在减半事件后迎来最长的横盘阶段。特别是,CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 周五观察到,如果历史重演,阿尔法加密货币只有 14 天的时间进入抛物线反弹。
“285 days have passed since the bitcoin halving,” Young Ju wrote on X. “If there is no bull market in 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways post-halving in history.”
Young Ju在X上写道:“比特币减半已经过去了285天。如果14天内没有牛市,这将是历史上最长的减半后横盘。”
Bitcoin halvings happen quadrennially and reduce the block rewards to miners by 50%. Following previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin has historically set new lifetime highs.
比特币减半每四年发生一次,矿工的区块奖励减少 50%。在之前的减半之后,比特币的价格创下了历史新高。
However, the cryptocurrency has mostly languished in the $59,000-$65,000 range since the April halving, closing in on a 300-day sideways action record from 2016.
然而,自 4 月份减半以来,加密货币大多徘徊在 59,000 美元至 65,000 美元区间,接近 2016 年以来的 300 天横盘整理记录。
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