比特幣（BTC）繼續點燃人們的熱情。會達到 138,000 美元還是只是暴風雨前的喘息？

比特幣繼續點燃人們的熱情。就在昨天，突破 10 萬美元大關似乎是烏托邦，但領先的加密貨幣再次證明它遠非如此

Bitcoin continues to ignite passions. Just yesterday, crossing the $100,000 mark seemed utopian, yet the leading crypto proves once again that it is far from finished surprising us. While some traders now contemplate a target around $138,000, others highlight an unexpected return of the “Coinbase premium” to a neutral level. Should we see this as the beginning of a new surge or merely a respite before the storm?

比特幣繼續點燃人們的熱情。就在昨天，突破 10 萬美元大關似乎是烏托邦，但領先的加密貨幣再次證明它還遠遠沒有讓我們感到驚訝。雖然一些交易員現在考慮將目標定在 138,000 美元左右，但其他交易員則強調「Coinbase 溢價」意外回歸至中性水平。我們應該將其視為新一波的開始，還是只是暴風雨前的喘息？

A target of $138,000: ambitious dream or near reality?

138,000 美元的目標：雄心勃勃的夢想還是接近現實？

After briefly surpassing $100,000, Bitcoin seems to be seeking a second wind. Voices are rising to assert that it could reach $138,000 by February, based on historical previous cycles.

在短暫突破 10 萬美元之後，比特幣似乎正在尋求重生。越來越多的人斷言，根據先前的歷史週期，到 2 月份，價格可能會達到 138,000 美元。

Proponents of this thesis compare the current dynamics to that of 2021, when a powerful bullish rally defied all pessimistic forecasts.

該論文的支持者將當前的動態與 2021 年的動態進行了比較，當時強勁的看漲反彈打破了所有悲觀的預測。

However, not all signals are positive. The retail market is being discreet. Transactions under $10,000 have decreased since Bitcoin hit $108,000, indicating a certain reluctance from small investors. Meanwhile, analysts like Cryptochimpanz dare to bet on even higher peaks, around $200,000.

然而，並非所有訊號都是正面的。零售市場正在謹慎行事。自從比特幣觸及 108,000 美元以來，10,000 美元以下的交易有所減少，這表明小投資者有一定的不願意。同時，Cryptochimpanz 等分析師敢於押注更高的峰值，約 20 萬美元。

This double interpretation keeps things unclear: on one side, optimists foresee an imminent surge; on the other, the cautious fear a major event – a “black swan” – that could disrupt everything.

這種雙重解釋使事情變得不清楚：一方面，樂觀主義者預見到即將到來的激增；另一方面，另一方面，謹慎的人擔心重大事件——“黑天鵝”——可能會擾亂一切。

Nevertheless, confidence in Bitcoin remains strong: more than 90% of circulating supply is already in profit, limiting the temptation for massive selling.

儘管如此，人們對比特幣的信心依然強勁：超過 90% 的流通供應量已經實現盈利，限制了大規模拋售的誘惑。

The Coinbase premium at a standstill: a strong signal for Bitcoin?

Coinbase 溢價停滯：比特幣的強烈訊號？

The “Coinbase premium” is a key indicator for tracking the mood of American traders. When it is high, it means that buyers on Coinbase are paying more for Bitcoin than elsewhere, reflecting a national enthusiasm. Conversely, when the premium dips into the negative, it indicates a relative disinterest.

「Coinbase溢價」是追蹤美國交易者情緒的關鍵指標。當它很高時，這意味著 Coinbase 上的買家為比特幣支付的價格比其他地方更高，反映出全國性的熱情。相反，當溢價跌至負值時，則表示相對不感興趣。

Recently, this premium returned to a neutral level, signaling a resurgence of calm. IT Tech, an anonymous analyst, sees this as evidence that institutional and individual American investors are regaining confidence. However, it is worth noting that large players often favor over-the-counter (OTC) trading channels that are not visible on public charts.

最近，這一溢價回到了中性水平，標誌著平靜的復甦。 IT Tech一位匿名分析師認為，這證明美國機構和個人投資人正在重拾信心。然而，值得注意的是，大型參與者往往青睞公開圖表上看不見的場外交易（OTC）交易管道。

This repositioning of the premium is accompanied by a paradox. While individuals are slowing down their purchases, the resurgence of this American confidence could signal a market in search of stability. If institutional demand picks up, Bitcoin could rebound. Conversely, prolonged stagnation around $100,000 could reveal exhaustion, opening the door to a correction.

這種溢價的重新定位伴隨著一個悖論。儘管個人的購買速度正在放緩，但美國信心的復甦可能預示著市場正在尋求穩定。如果機構需求回升，比特幣可能會反彈。相反，長期停滯在 10 萬美元左右可能會顯示出疲憊，從而為回調打開大門。

Between bold predictions at $138,000 and subtle adjustments of the Coinbase premium, Bitcoin continues its race in a fog where optimism and caution intertwine. The coming weeks will be crucial to gauge the market’s resilience and determine whether the target set by supporters of a new record will be reached or if it will turn out to be yet another mirage in the ever-shifting narrative of the cryptosphere. Nevertheless, an altseason is on the horizon.

在 138,000 美元的大膽預測和 Coinbase 溢價的微妙調整之間，比特幣在樂觀和謹慎交織在一起的迷霧中繼續競爭。未來幾週對於衡量市場的彈性至關重要，並確定新紀錄支持者設定的目標是否能夠實現，或者是否會成為加密貨幣領域不斷變化的敘述中的另一個海市蜃樓。儘管如此，山寨季即將到來。

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