比特币（BTC）继续点燃人们的热情。会达到 138,000 美元还是只是暴风雨前的喘息？

比特币继续点燃人们的热情。就在昨天，突破 10 万美元大关似乎是乌托邦，但领先的加密货币再次证明它远非如此

Bitcoin continues to ignite passions. Just yesterday, crossing the $100,000 mark seemed utopian, yet the leading crypto proves once again that it is far from finished surprising us. While some traders now contemplate a target around $138,000, others highlight an unexpected return of the “Coinbase premium” to a neutral level. Should we see this as the beginning of a new surge or merely a respite before the storm?

比特币继续点燃人们的热情。就在昨天，突破 100,000 美元大关似乎是乌托邦，但领先的加密货币再次证明它还远远没有让我们感到惊讶。虽然一些交易员现在考虑将目标定在 138,000 美元左右，但其他交易员则强调“Coinbase 溢价”意外回归至中性水平。我们应该将其视为新一轮浪潮的开始，还是仅仅是暴风雨前的喘息？

A target of $138,000: ambitious dream or near reality?

138,000 美元的目标：雄心勃勃的梦想还是接近现实？

After briefly surpassing $100,000, Bitcoin seems to be seeking a second wind. Voices are rising to assert that it could reach $138,000 by February, based on historical previous cycles.

在短暂突破 10 万美元之后，比特币似乎正在寻求重生。越来越多的人断言，根据之前的历史周期，到 2 月份，价格可能会达到 138,000 美元。

Proponents of this thesis compare the current dynamics to that of 2021, when a powerful bullish rally defied all pessimistic forecasts.

该论文的支持者将当前的动态与 2021 年的动态进行了比较，当时强劲的看涨反弹打破了所有悲观的预测。

However, not all signals are positive. The retail market is being discreet. Transactions under $10,000 have decreased since Bitcoin hit $108,000, indicating a certain reluctance from small investors. Meanwhile, analysts like Cryptochimpanz dare to bet on even higher peaks, around $200,000.

然而，并非所有信号都是积极的。零售市场正在谨慎行事。自比特币触及 108,000 美元以来，10,000 美元以下的交易有所减少，这表明小投资者有一定的不愿意。与此同时，Cryptochimpanz 等分析师敢于押注更高的峰值，即 20 万美元左右。

This double interpretation keeps things unclear: on one side, optimists foresee an imminent surge; on the other, the cautious fear a major event – a “black swan” – that could disrupt everything.

这种双重解释使事情变得不清楚：一方面，乐观主义者预见到即将到来的激增；另一方面，乐观主义者则预见到了即将到来的激增。另一方面，谨慎的人担心重大事件——“黑天鹅”——可能会扰乱一切。

Nevertheless, confidence in Bitcoin remains strong: more than 90% of circulating supply is already in profit, limiting the temptation for massive selling.

尽管如此，人们对比特币的信心依然强劲：超过 90% 的流通供应量已经实现盈利，限制了大规模抛售的诱惑。

The Coinbase premium at a standstill: a strong signal for Bitcoin?

Coinbase 溢价停滞：比特币的强烈信号？

The “Coinbase premium” is a key indicator for tracking the mood of American traders. When it is high, it means that buyers on Coinbase are paying more for Bitcoin than elsewhere, reflecting a national enthusiasm. Conversely, when the premium dips into the negative, it indicates a relative disinterest.

“Coinbase溢价”是追踪美国交易者情绪的关键指标。当它很高时，意味着 Coinbase 上的买家为比特币支付的价格比其他地方更高，反映出全国性的热情。相反，当溢价跌至负数时，则表明相对不感兴趣。

Recently, this premium returned to a neutral level, signaling a resurgence of calm. IT Tech, an anonymous analyst, sees this as evidence that institutional and individual American investors are regaining confidence. However, it is worth noting that large players often favor over-the-counter (OTC) trading channels that are not visible on public charts.

最近，这一溢价回到了中性水平，标志着平静的复苏。 IT Tech一位匿名分析师认为，这证明美国机构和个人投资者正在重拾信心。然而，值得注意的是，大型参与者往往青睐公开图表上不可见的场外交易（OTC）交易渠道。

This repositioning of the premium is accompanied by a paradox. While individuals are slowing down their purchases, the resurgence of this American confidence could signal a market in search of stability. If institutional demand picks up, Bitcoin could rebound. Conversely, prolonged stagnation around $100,000 could reveal exhaustion, opening the door to a correction.

这种溢价的重新定位伴随着一个悖论。尽管个人的购买速度正在放缓，但美国信心的复苏可能预示着市场正在寻求稳定。如果机构需求回升，比特币可能会反弹。相反，长期停滞在 100,000 美元左右可能会显示出疲惫，从而为回调打开大门。

Between bold predictions at $138,000 and subtle adjustments of the Coinbase premium, Bitcoin continues its race in a fog where optimism and caution intertwine. The coming weeks will be crucial to gauge the market’s resilience and determine whether the target set by supporters of a new record will be reached or if it will turn out to be yet another mirage in the ever-shifting narrative of the cryptosphere. Nevertheless, an altseason is on the horizon.

在 138,000 美元的大胆预测和 Coinbase 溢价的微妙调整之间，比特币在乐观和谨慎交织在一起的迷雾中继续竞赛。未来几周对于衡量市场的弹性至关重要，并确定新纪录支持者设定的目标是否能够实现，或者是否会成为加密货币领域不断变化的叙述中的又一个海市蜃楼。尽管如此，山寨季即将到来。

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