在市場對買權的強勁需求和看漲情緒的推動下，到 2024 年底，比特幣 (BTC) 有 45% 的機會突破 10 萬美元。

根據最新的選擇數據，比特幣 (BTC) 到 2024 年底達到 10 萬美元的機率已飆升至 45%。近一半的比特幣 (BTC) 選擇權交易者押注於六位數的價格，儘管加密貨幣最近回落至 9 萬美元，但有些人預測價格高達 15 萬美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently displaying a 45% chance of hitting $100,000 by the end of 2024, fueled by high market demand for call options and optimism in the cryptocurrency’s continuous ascent.

目前，在市場對看漲期權的高需求以及加密貨幣持續上漲的樂觀情緒的推動下，比特幣 (BTC) 價格目前顯示到 2024 年底達到 100,000 美元的可能性為 45%。

After pulling back from a recent high of $99,541, BTC price is now showing a 45% probability of hitting $100,000 by the end of 2024, according to the latest options data. The bullish sentiment is evident in the market, with nearly half of Bitcoin traders betting on a six-figure price, and some traders even predicting an ambitious target of $150,000.

根據最新的選擇權數據，在從 99,541 美元的近期高點回落後，BTC 價格目前顯示到 2024 年底達到 100,000 美元的可能性為 45%。市場看漲情緒顯而易見，近一半的比特幣交易者押注於六位數的價格，有些交易者甚至預測雄心勃勃的目標為 15 萬美元。

Despite the recent pullback, BTC price is still up 7% over the past week and showing resilience above the $90,000 level. The cryptocurrency has been rallying sharply in 2024, starting the year at around $30,000 and now eyeing a triple-digit price.

儘管近期出現回調，但 BTC 價格在過去一周仍上漲了 7%，並在 90,000 美元上方表現出韌性。這種加密貨幣在 2024 年大幅上漲，年初價格約為 3 萬美元，現在的價格預計將達到三位數。

1. Options Market Signals Bullishness

1. 選擇權市場顯示看漲訊號

Call Options Dominate: A closer look at the options trades reveals that call options, which are bets on price increases, are dominating the market. Call options trades account for 41.3% of the total trades, compared to 38.3% for puts (bets on price declines).

買權占主導地位：仔細觀察選擇權交易就會發現，押注價格上漲的買權正在主導市場。買權交易佔總交易量的 41.3%，而賣權（押注價格下跌）佔 38.3%。

Probabilities Breakdown: The options trades are painting a picture of potential price movements, with a 68% chance of BTC trading between $81,493 and $115,579 by year-end. There is also a 5% chance of BTC either dropping below $70,000 or surging past $137,645.

機率細分：選擇權交易描繪了潛在價格走勢的圖景，到年底 BTC 交易價格在 81,493 美元至 115,579 美元之間的可能性為 68%。 BTC 還有 5% 的可能性跌破 70,000 美元或飆升至 137,645 美元以上。

2. Current BTC Price and Outlook

2.當前BTC價格及展望

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently trading at $92,680, down from a recent high of $99,541. Despite the pullback, analysis suggests that BTC is consolidating around the $90,000 range, which could be a healthy move for the longevity of the bull market.

比特幣 (BTC) 價格目前交易價格為 92,680 美元，低於近期高點 99,541 美元。儘管出現回調，但分析表明 BTC 正在 90,000 美元區間盤整，這對於牛市的長期發展來說可能是一個健康的舉動。

Analysts on Pullbacks, Probabilities

分析師關於回調、機率

Short-Term Volatility: Ki Young Ju, the CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, highlighted that even during parabolic bull runs, Bitcoin has historically experienced corrections of -30%, like the one seen in the 2021 cycle. However, he emphasizes the importance of managing risk and avoiding panic selling at local bottoms.

短期波動性：加密貨幣分析公司 CryptoQuant 的執行長 Ki Young Ju 強調，即使在拋物線牛市期間，比特幣歷史上也經歷過 -30% 的調整，就像 2021 年周期中看到的那樣。不過，他強調了管理風險和避免在局部底部出現恐慌性拋售的重要性。

“This isn't a call for a correction—just manage your risk and don't panic sell at local bottoms. We're in a bull market.”

「這並不是要求修正——只是管理你的風險，不要在局部底部恐慌性拋售。我們正處於牛市。

Bull Market Consolidation: Prominent crypto analyst PlanC is suggesting a period of consolidation in the $90,000 range, stating, “It's looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s. This would be the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market.”

牛市整合：著名的加密貨幣分析師 PlanC 建議在 90,000 美元範圍內進行一段整合期，並表示：「看起來我們實際上越來越有可能在 90 年代花一些時間進行整合。這將是本次牛市長期持續的最佳情況。

What Options Market Implies for Bitcoin's Future

期權市場對比特幣的未來意味著什麼

Strong Demand for Calls: Nick Forster, the founder of an onchain options DeFi protocol, is observing robust demand for Bitcoin call options, indicating confidence in potential upside.“Very few sellers signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”

對看漲期權的強勁需求：鏈上期權DeFi 協議的創始人尼克·福斯特（Nick Forster）觀察到對比特幣看漲期權的強勁需求，這表明對潛在上漲的信心。對上漲潛力和下行保護都有強烈的興趣。

Probabilities Shift: Notably, the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, which stood at 34% last week, has now shifted to 45%. The optimism in the options market is also evident in the 4% probability of BTC hitting $150,000, up from 0.5%.

機率轉變：值得注意的是，比特幣突破 10 萬美元的機率由上週的 34% 轉變為 45%。期權市場的樂觀情緒也反映在 BTC 觸及 15 萬美元的機率為 4%，高於 0.5%。