在市场对看涨期权的强劲需求和看涨情绪的推动下，到 2024 年底，比特币 (BTC) 有 45% 的机会突破 10 万美元。

根据最新的期权数据，比特币 (BTC) 到 2024 年底达到 10 万美元的概率已飙升至 45%。近一半的比特币 (BTC) 期权交易者押注于六位数的价格，尽管加密货币最近回落至 90,000 美元，但一些人预测价格高达 150,000 美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently displaying a 45% chance of hitting $100,000 by the end of 2024, fueled by high market demand for call options and optimism in the cryptocurrency’s continuous ascent.

目前，在市场对看涨期权的高需求以及加密货币持续上涨的乐观情绪的推动下，比特币 (BTC) 价格目前显示到 2024 年底达到 100,000 美元的可能性为 45%。

After pulling back from a recent high of $99,541, BTC price is now showing a 45% probability of hitting $100,000 by the end of 2024, according to the latest options data. The bullish sentiment is evident in the market, with nearly half of Bitcoin traders betting on a six-figure price, and some traders even predicting an ambitious target of $150,000.

根据最新的期权数据，在从 99,541 美元的近期高点回落后，BTC 价格目前显示到 2024 年底达到 100,000 美元的可能性为 45%。市场看涨情绪显而易见，近一半的比特币交易者押注于六位数的价格，一些交易者甚至预测雄心勃勃的目标为 15 万美元。

Despite the recent pullback, BTC price is still up 7% over the past week and showing resilience above the $90,000 level. The cryptocurrency has been rallying sharply in 2024, starting the year at around $30,000 and now eyeing a triple-digit price.

尽管近期出现回调，但 BTC 价格在过去一周仍上涨 7%，并在 90,000 美元上方表现出韧性。这种加密货币在 2024 年大幅上涨，年初价格约为 30,000 美元，现在的价格有望达到三位数。

1. Options Market Signals Bullishness

1. 期权市场显示看涨信号

Call Options Dominate: A closer look at the options trades reveals that call options, which are bets on price increases, are dominating the market. Call options trades account for 41.3% of the total trades, compared to 38.3% for puts (bets on price declines).

看涨期权占主导地位：仔细观察期权交易就会发现，押注价格上涨的看涨期权正在主导市场。看涨期权交易占总交易量的 41.3%，而看跌期权（押注价格下跌）则占 38.3%。

Probabilities Breakdown: The options trades are painting a picture of potential price movements, with a 68% chance of BTC trading between $81,493 and $115,579 by year-end. There is also a 5% chance of BTC either dropping below $70,000 or surging past $137,645.

概率细分：期权交易描绘了潜在价格走势的图景，到年底 BTC 交易价格在 81,493 美元至 115,579 美元之间的可能性为 68%。 BTC 还有 5% 的可能性跌破 70,000 美元或飙升至 137,645 美元以上。

2. Current BTC Price and Outlook

2.当前BTC价格及展望

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently trading at $92,680, down from a recent high of $99,541. Despite the pullback, analysis suggests that BTC is consolidating around the $90,000 range, which could be a healthy move for the longevity of the bull market.

比特币 (BTC) 价格目前交易价格为 92,680 美元，低于近期高点 99,541 美元。尽管出现回调，但分析表明 BTC 正在 90,000 美元区间盘整，这对于牛市的长期发展来说可能是一个健康的举动。

Analysts on Pullbacks, Probabilities

分析师关于回调、概率

Short-Term Volatility: Ki Young Ju, the CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, highlighted that even during parabolic bull runs, Bitcoin has historically experienced corrections of -30%, like the one seen in the 2021 cycle. However, he emphasizes the importance of managing risk and avoiding panic selling at local bottoms.

短期波动性：加密货币分析公司 CryptoQuant 的首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 强调，即使在抛物线牛市期间，比特币历史上也经历过 -30% 的调整，就像 2021 年周期中看到的那样。不过，他强调了管理风险和避免在局部底部出现恐慌性抛售的重要性。

“This isn't a call for a correction—just manage your risk and don't panic sell at local bottoms. We're in a bull market.”

“这并不是要求修正——只是管理你的风险，不要在局部底部恐慌性抛售。我们正处于牛市。”

Bull Market Consolidation: Prominent crypto analyst PlanC is suggesting a period of consolidation in the $90,000 range, stating, “It's looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s. This would be the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market.”

牛市整合：著名的加密货币分析师 PlanC 建议在 90,000 美元范围内进行一段整合期，并表示：“看起来我们实际上越来越有可能在 90 年代花一些时间进行整合。这将是本轮牛市长期持续的最佳情况。”

What Options Market Implies for Bitcoin's Future

期权市场对比特币的未来意味着什么

Strong Demand for Calls: Nick Forster, the founder of an onchain options DeFi protocol, is observing robust demand for Bitcoin call options, indicating confidence in potential upside.“Very few sellers signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”

对看涨期权的强劲需求：链上期权 DeFi 协议的创始人尼克·福斯特（Nick Forster）观察到对比特币看涨期权的强劲需求，这表明对潜在上涨的信心。“很少有卖家表明市场对上涨潜力和下行保护都有强烈的兴趣。”

Probabilities Shift: Notably, the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, which stood at 34% last week, has now shifted to 45%. The optimism in the options market is also evident in the 4% probability of BTC hitting $150,000, up from 0.5%.

概率转变：值得注意的是，比特币突破 10 万美元的概率由上周的 34% 转变为 45%。期权市场的乐观情绪也体现在 BTC 触及 15 万美元的概率为 4%，高于 0.5%。