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分析師本週在美國尋找兩個關鍵的經濟數據發布。 2月27日,勞工部將發布最初的失業索賠。
Economists and market participants are keeping a close eye on two important US economic data releases this week. The Department of Labor will announce Initial Jobless Claims on February 27, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency within the Department of Commerce, will publish Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) on February 28. These events could quickly drive volatility in Bitcoin and major altcoin prices.
經濟學家和市場參與者本周密切關注美國兩個重要的經濟數據。勞工部將於2月27日宣布最初的失業索賠,經濟分析局(BEA)是商業部內的機構,將於2月28日發布核心PCE(個人消費支出)。在比特幣和主要替代幣價格中。
Initial Jobless Claims
最初的失業聲明
Initial jobless claims highlight the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time within a specified period. This data significantly impacts US dollar and bond price movements.
最初的失業要求強調了在指定期間首次提出失業福利的個人數量。這些數據顯著影響美元和債券價格變動。
As Coin Bureau notes, a lower-than-expected reading indicates a robust labor market, decreasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve engaging in monetary easing. In such a scenario, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market may continue their ongoing downtrend.
正如硬幣局所指出的那樣,較低預期的讀數表明勞動力市場強勁,減少了美聯儲進行貨幣寬鬆的可能性。在這種情況下,比特幣(BTC)和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場可能會繼續持續下降。
Conversely, an increase in the figures signals weakness in the labor sector, which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could interpret as a sign for a rate cut. This is typically bullish for the crypto market.
相反,這些數字的增加表示勞動力部門的弱點,聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)可以將其解釋為削減稅率的標誌。對於加密市場來說,這通常是看好的。
According to Forbes, monetary easing or rate cuts tend to weaken the US dollar, leading to increased demand for risk-on assets, such as crypto.
根據《福布斯》的說法,貨幣降低或削減稅率往往會削弱美元,從而增加對風險資產的需求,例如加密貨幣。
In the week ending February 15, the labor department reported an increase in unemployment insurance filings to 219K, as per FXStreet data. This was notably higher than the expected 214K and the previous week's 214K, with a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%.
根據FXSTREET數據,在截至2月15日的一周中,勞工部報告說,失業保險檔案增加到219K。這明顯高於預期的214K和前一周的214K,其季節性調整後的失業率為1.2%。
Core PCE
核心PCE
The BEA uses the PCE to gauge inflation and the purchasing trends of US households or consumers. Core PCE tracks price changes in goods and services, excluding the volatile food and energy components.
BEA使用PCE來衡量通貨膨脹以及美國家庭或消費者的購買趨勢。核心PCE跟踪商品和服務的價格變化,不包括揮發性食品和能源組成部分。
Coin Bureau observed signs of stickiness and a slight uptrend in the Core PCE. Sticky inflation occurs when the prices of goods and services change slowly and persistently. This makes it difficult to control inflation because prices are not immediately responsive to changes in supply and demand dynamics but rather depend on regulations, long-term consumer habits, or contracts. All of these increase the احتمال for monetary easing following the next FOMC meeting in March.
硬幣局觀察到粘性的跡象和核心PCE的略有上升趨勢。當商品和服務的價格變化緩慢而持久時,就會發生粘性通貨膨脹。這使得很難控制通貨膨脹,因為價格沒有立即響應供求動態的變化,而是取決於法規,長期消費者習慣或合同。所有這些都增加了3月下一次FOMC會議之後,以減輕貨幣的率。
Once again, expectations for monetary easing amid cooling inflation could drive the price of digital assets higher. In contrast, the higher احتمال for monetary tightening due to hotter inflation numbers could prompt a bearish response from the crypto market.
再次,在冷卻通貨膨脹的情況下,對貨幣緩解的期望可能會推動數字資產的價格更高。相比之下,由於通貨膨脹率較高的通貨膨脹數量,貨幣收緊的較高的率較高,可能會引起加密貨幣市場的看跌反應。
Analysts also note that President Donald Trump's flurry of executive orders, especially those regarding tariffs since assuming office for his second non-consecutive term, could inject uncertainty into the markets and dampen hopes for lower inflation.
分析師還指出,唐納德·特朗普總統的行政命令,特別是自從擔任第二個非連續任期以來關稅的行政命令,可能會向市場注入不確定性,並抑制降低通貨膨脹的希望。
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