比特幣瀕臨投降：分析師預測暴跌 50% 至 3 萬美元

技術指標表明，比特幣（BTC）可能在未來幾個月內經歷大幅下跌。加密貨幣分析師 Alan Santana 預計，根據歷史表現和當前交易模式，比特幣價格可能會從當前水準下跌 50% 至 30,000 美元左右。成交量下降和相對強弱指數（RSI）減弱預示著看跌勢頭即將來臨。歷史數據表明，五月對加密貨幣來說可能是充滿挑戰的一個月。

Bitcoin Faces Imminent Capitulation: Analyst Predicts 50% Price Drop to $30,000

比特幣面臨迫在眉睫的投降：分析師預測價格將下跌 50% 至 30,000 美元

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow range below $65,000, technical indicators and historical performance suggest that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of a significant capitulation event in the coming months.

隨著比特幣（BTC）繼續在 65,000 美元以下的窄幅區間內交易，技術指標和歷史表現表明，該加密貨幣在未來幾個月正處於重大投降事件的邊緣。

Cryptocurrency trading expert Alan Santana, in a detailed analysis published on TradingView on April 27, warned investors of an impending "capitulation drop" that could lead to a precipitous decline in Bitcoin's price. Santana's calculations, based on Bitcoin's average trading range over the past month and a half, indicate a potential drop to $30,000, representing a decline of over 50% from current levels.

加密貨幣交易專家 Alan Santana 在 4 月 27 日在 TradingView 上發布的詳細分析中警告投資者即將到來的“投降”，這可能導致比特幣價格急劇下跌。 Santana 根據過去一個半月的平均交易區間計算，比特幣價格可能會跌至 30,000 美元，較目前水準下跌超過 50%。

Several indicators, including declining volume and a weakening Relative Strength Index (RSI), point to bearish momentum building within the Bitcoin market. Santana outlined a potential scenario where Bitcoin experiences a sharp drop, followed by a period of stabilization.

包括交易量下降和相對強度指數（RSI）疲軟在內的多個指標都顯示比特幣市場正在形成看跌勢頭。桑塔納概述了一個可能的情況，即比特幣經歷急劇下跌，然後是一段穩定時期。

"This is the final warning and a friendly reminder; what we are about to witness is a 'capitulation drop!'. [...] The 50% capitulation drop, we get a number in the range of $33,300. [...] The action should go something like this: The initial drop fast and strong; remember that the initial move is bearish marketwide, period. Then this move stabilizes and the ALTSBTC and smaller Altcoins will recover first. Mid-size second and the biggest one last," Santana explained.

「這是最後的警告和友好的提醒；我們將要目睹的是『投降下降！』。[...] 50% 的投降下降，我們得到的數字在 33,300 美元範圍內。[...] ] 走勢應該是這樣的：最初的下跌快速而強勁；記住，最初的走勢是整個市場看跌的，然後這一走勢穩定下來，ALTSBTC 和較小的山寨幣將首先恢復，最後是最大的。解釋道。

Key resistance levels, such as the EMA50, have further confirmed the short-term bearish bias in the Bitcoin market. According to Santana: "Bitcoin moved back below EMA50 24-April and has been trading below. As long as the trading happens below this level, here set at $64,560; the short-term bearish bias is super strong and confirmed."

EMA50 等關鍵阻力位進一步證實了比特幣市場的短期看跌傾向。 Santana 表示：“比特幣於 4 月 24 日回到 EMA50 下方，並一直在下方交易。只要交易發生在該水平下方（此處設定為 64,560 美元）；短期看跌偏見就非常強烈並得到證實。”

Historical Bitcoin performance also suggests the potential for a significant correction. May has historically been a challenging month for cryptocurrencies, particularly when prices have reached multi-year highs.

比特幣的歷史表現也顯示有大幅調整的可能性。從歷史上看，五月對於加密貨幣來說是充滿挑戰的一個月，特別是當價格達到多年高點時。

Despite the anticipated drop, Santana remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He believes that the capitulation drop represents the beginning of a new bullish phase, with significant opportunities expected to emerge in late 2024 and throughout 2025.

儘管預期會下跌，桑塔納仍然對比特幣的長期前景持樂觀態度。他認為，投降率下降代表著新的看漲階段的開始，預計 2024 年底和整個 2025 年將出現重大機會。

"Although Bitcoin is about to go through this 50% capitulation drop, it will most likely recover between 30-50% before setting lower highs slowly again. This sets us up for the next leg, which is probably going to start showing signs of life within the first six months of 2025, a year that should see a new all-time high," Santana predicted.

「儘管比特幣即將經歷50% 的跌幅，但它很可能會反彈30-50%，然後再次緩慢設定較低的高點。這為我們的下一個階段做好了準備，這可能會開始顯示出生命的跡像在 2025 年的前六個月內，這一年應該會創下歷史新高，」桑塔納預測。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $63,519, reflecting gains of approximately 0.6% over the last 24 hours. However, in the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin declined by nearly 3%.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 63,519 美元，過去 24 小時內上漲約 0.6%。然而，在每週時間範圍內，比特幣下跌了近 3%。

Technical analysis from TradingView indicates bearish sentiment, with a 'sell' rating from 11 indicators, 9 moving averages, and 2 oscillators. The post-halving retrace trend, where Bitcoin undergoes a correction before resuming its upward rally, further supports the prevailing bearish sentiment. Breaching below the $60,000 mark could further validate this sentiment.

TradingView 的技術分析顯示看跌情緒，11 個指標、9 個移動平均線和 2 個振盪指標給予「賣出」評級。減半後的回撤趨勢，即比特幣在恢復上行反彈之前經歷了調整，進一步支撐了普遍的看跌情緒。跌破 6 萬美元大關可能會進一步驗證這種情緒。

It is important to note that this analysis should not be considered investment advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves significant risk, and potential investors should conduct thorough research and consult financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

值得注意的是，這種分析不應被視為投資建議。加密貨幣投資涉及重大風險，潛在投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應進行徹底的研究並諮詢財務顧問。