比特币濒临投降：分析师预测暴跌 50% 至 3 万美元

技术指标表明，比特币（BTC）可能在未来几个月内经历大幅下跌。加密货币分析师 Alan Santana 预计，根据历史表现和当前交易模式，比特币价格可能会从当前水平下跌 50% 至 30,000 美元左右。成交量下降和相对强弱指数（RSI）减弱预示着看跌势头即将来临。历史数据表明，五月对于加密货币来说可能是充满挑战的一个月。

Bitcoin Faces Imminent Capitulation: Analyst Predicts 50% Price Drop to $30,000

比特币面临迫在眉睫的投降：分析师预测价格将下跌 50% 至 30,000 美元

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow range below $65,000, technical indicators and historical performance suggest that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of a significant capitulation event in the coming months.

随着比特币（BTC）继续在 65,000 美元以下的窄幅区间内交易，技术指标和历史表现表明，该加密货币在未来几个月正处于重大投降事件的边缘。

Cryptocurrency trading expert Alan Santana, in a detailed analysis published on TradingView on April 27, warned investors of an impending "capitulation drop" that could lead to a precipitous decline in Bitcoin's price. Santana's calculations, based on Bitcoin's average trading range over the past month and a half, indicate a potential drop to $30,000, representing a decline of over 50% from current levels.

加密货币交易专家 Alan Santana 在 4 月 27 日在 TradingView 上发布的详细分析中警告投资者即将到来的“投降”，这可能导致比特币价格急剧下跌。 Santana 根据过去一个半月的平均交易区间计算，比特币价格可能会跌至 30,000 美元，较当前水平下跌超过 50%。

Several indicators, including declining volume and a weakening Relative Strength Index (RSI), point to bearish momentum building within the Bitcoin market. Santana outlined a potential scenario where Bitcoin experiences a sharp drop, followed by a period of stabilization.

包括交易量下降和相对强度指数（RSI）疲软在内的多项指标都表明比特币市场正在形成看跌势头。桑塔纳概述了一种可能的情况，即比特币经历急剧下跌，然后是一段稳定时期。

"This is the final warning and a friendly reminder; what we are about to witness is a 'capitulation drop!'. [...] The 50% capitulation drop, we get a number in the range of $33,300. [...] The action should go something like this: The initial drop fast and strong; remember that the initial move is bearish marketwide, period. Then this move stabilizes and the ALTSBTC and smaller Altcoins will recover first. Mid-size second and the biggest one last," Santana explained.

“这是最后的警告和友好的提醒；我们将要目睹的是‘投降下降！’。[...] 50% 的投降下降，我们得到的数字在 33,300 美元范围内。[...] ] 走势应该是这样的：最初的下跌快速而强劲；记住，最初的走势是整个市场看跌的，然后这一走势稳定下来，ALTSBTC 和较小的山寨币将首先恢复，最后是最大的。 ，”桑塔纳解释道。

Key resistance levels, such as the EMA50, have further confirmed the short-term bearish bias in the Bitcoin market. According to Santana: "Bitcoin moved back below EMA50 24-April and has been trading below. As long as the trading happens below this level, here set at $64,560; the short-term bearish bias is super strong and confirmed."

EMA50 等关键阻力位进一步证实了比特币市场的短期看跌倾向。 Santana 表示：“比特币于 4 月 24 日回到 EMA50 下方，并一直在下方交易。只要交易发生在该水平下方（此处设定为 64,560 美元）；短期看跌偏见就非常强烈并得到证实。”

Historical Bitcoin performance also suggests the potential for a significant correction. May has historically been a challenging month for cryptocurrencies, particularly when prices have reached multi-year highs.

比特币的历史表现也表明存在大幅调整的可能性。从历史上看，五月对于加密货币来说是充满挑战的一个月，特别是当价格达到多年高点时。

Despite the anticipated drop, Santana remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He believes that the capitulation drop represents the beginning of a new bullish phase, with significant opportunities expected to emerge in late 2024 and throughout 2025.

尽管预期会下跌，桑塔纳仍然对比特币的长期前景持乐观态度。他认为，投降率下降代表着新的看涨阶段的开始，预计 2024 年底和整个 2025 年将出现重大机会。

"Although Bitcoin is about to go through this 50% capitulation drop, it will most likely recover between 30-50% before setting lower highs slowly again. This sets us up for the next leg, which is probably going to start showing signs of life within the first six months of 2025, a year that should see a new all-time high," Santana predicted.

“尽管比特币即将经历 50% 的跌幅，但它很可能会反弹 30-50%，然后再次缓慢设定较低的高点。这为我们的下一个阶段做好了准备，这可能会开始显示出生命的迹象在 2025 年的前六个月内，这一年应该会创下历史新高，”桑塔纳预测。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $63,519, reflecting gains of approximately 0.6% over the last 24 hours. However, in the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin declined by nearly 3%.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 63,519 美元，过去 24 小时内上涨约 0.6%。然而，在每周时间范围内，比特币下跌了近 3%。

Technical analysis from TradingView indicates bearish sentiment, with a 'sell' rating from 11 indicators, 9 moving averages, and 2 oscillators. The post-halving retrace trend, where Bitcoin undergoes a correction before resuming its upward rally, further supports the prevailing bearish sentiment. Breaching below the $60,000 mark could further validate this sentiment.

TradingView 的技术分析显示看跌情绪，11 个指标、9 个移动平均线和 2 个振荡指标给出“卖出”评级。减半后的回撤趋势，即比特币在恢复上行反弹之前经历了调整，进一步支撑了普遍的看跌情绪。跌破 60,000 美元大关可能会进一步验证这种情绪。

It is important to note that this analysis should not be considered investment advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves significant risk, and potential investors should conduct thorough research and consult financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

值得注意的是，这种分析不应被视为投资建议。加密货币投资涉及重大风险，潜在投资者在做出任何投资决定之前应进行彻底的研究并咨询财务顾问。