比特幣明顯的需求指標最近一直在恢復，但尚未確認逆轉趨勢

在一個加密的QuickTake帖子中，一位分析師談到了比特幣明顯需求的最新趨勢。

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric has been recovering recently, but an analyst at CryptoQuant says a trend of reversal shouldn’t be assumed just yet.

鏈上的數據顯示，比特幣明顯的需求指標最近正在恢復，但是CryptoQuant的一位分析師說，尚未假設逆轉趨勢。

Apparent Demand is an indicator that measures, as its name suggests, the demand of BTC by comparing its production and inventory change.

明顯的需求是一種指標，顧名思義，通過比較其生產和庫存變化，對BTC的需求進行了指標。

The only way to ‘mint’ more of the cryptocurrency is by solving blocks on the network and receiving block subsidy as compensation, so the production of the asset is measured as the amount that the miners are receiving in their daily block reward.

“造幣廠”更多的加密貨幣的唯一方法是解決網絡上的塊並獲得塊補貼作為補償，因此將資產的生產衡量為礦工在其每日塊獎勵中收到的金額。

For gauging the inventory of BTC, the 1-year+ dormant supply is used. The change in the inventory, therefore, would be the changes happening in this part of the cryptocurrency’s supply.

為了衡量BTC的庫存，使用了1年+休眠供應。因此，庫存的變化將是加密貨幣供應的這一部分中發生的變化。

When the value of Apparent Demand is positive, it means BTC’s inventory is seeing a larger decrease than its production. This kind of trend signals that there is demand present for the asset that’s pulling coins out of the inventory.

當明顯需求的價值為正時，這意味著BTC的庫存比其產量的減少更大。這種趨勢信號表明資產中存在需求，將硬幣從庫存中撤出。

On the other hand, the metric being under zero suggests coins are being stashed away in the inventory, potentially because of low demand, which is putting downward pressure on the price of the asset.

另一方面，零低於零的指標表明硬幣被藏在庫存中，這可能是由於需求較低，這造成了資產價格的下降壓力。

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day sum of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand over the past year:As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Apparent Demand rose to sharp positive levels during the last couple of months of 2024, signaling strong demand, but this year, the trend has noted a shift.

這是一張圖表，顯示了過去一年比特幣明顯需求的30天總和的趨勢：如上圖所示，比特幣明顯的需求在2024年的最後幾個月中上升到了急劇的正面水平，這表明了強勁的需求，但是今年，趨勢指出了變化。

During January and February, demand waned, but still remained at positive levels. This changed in March, when it took a dive into negative territory. This month, the metric appears to have undergone another change in direction as it’s now on the rise again.

在一月和二月期間，需求減弱，但仍處於積極水平。 3月，這發生了變化，當時它進入了負面領域。本月，該指標似乎已經發生了另一個方向變化，因為它又在上升。

While this could be an early sign that there is a shift occurring in market behavior, the quant warns, “interpreting this as the beginning of a new bullish phase may be premature.”

雖然這可能是一個早期的跡象表明，市場行為發生了變化，但量子警告說：“將其解釋為新的看漲階段的開始可能為時過早。”

Something that could add credence to the idea that this may not be a shift away from a bearish trajectory at all is the trend followed back in the 2021 cycle.

可以使這一想法的信任是，這可能根本不是與看跌軌蹟的轉變的想法是2021年周期之後的趨勢。

From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Apparent Demand turned negative as the 2021 bull market topped out. After forming a bottom in January 2022, though, the indicator showed a reversal and by the middle of the year, it recovered all the way back into the positive zone.

從圖表中，可以看到比特幣明顯的需求變成負面，因為2021年牛市的最高點。但是，在2022年1月形成底部之後，該指標顯示出逆轉，到了今年中期，它一直恢復到正區域。

But clearly, while the metric may have displayed this trend, the cryptocurrency was still in the clutches of a bear market, which was only pulling its price deeper. “So while this current bounce is noteworthy, it’s more likely a pause in pressure, not a definitive signal of accumulation or a macro bottom,” concludes the analyst.

但是很明顯，儘管該指標可能已經顯示出這種趨勢，但加密貨幣仍處於熊市的離合器狀態，這只是更深入地提高了其價格。分析師總結說：“因此，儘管當前的反彈值得注意，但壓力的暫停很可能不是確定的積累信號或宏底部的信號。”

The post Bitcoin Apparent Demand Recovering From March Lows, But New Bullish Trend Remains Unclear appeared first on CryptoQuant.

比特幣明顯從3月份的低點恢復了比特幣的需求，但新看漲趨勢仍然不清楚，首先出現在隱態上。