比特币明显的需求指标最近一直在恢复，但尚未确认逆转趋势

在一个加密的QuickTake帖子中，一位分析师谈到了比特币明显需求的最新趋势。

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric has been recovering recently, but an analyst at CryptoQuant says a trend of reversal shouldn’t be assumed just yet.

链上的数据显示，比特币明显的需求指标最近正在恢复，但是CryptoQuant的一位分析师说，尚未假设逆转趋势。

Apparent Demand is an indicator that measures, as its name suggests, the demand of BTC by comparing its production and inventory change.

明显的需求是一种指标，顾名思义，通过比较其生产和库存变化，对BTC的需求进行了指标。

The only way to ‘mint’ more of the cryptocurrency is by solving blocks on the network and receiving block subsidy as compensation, so the production of the asset is measured as the amount that the miners are receiving in their daily block reward.

“造币厂”更多的加密货币的唯一方法是解决网络上的块并获得块补贴作为补偿，因此将资产的生产衡量为矿工在其每日块奖励中收到的金额。

For gauging the inventory of BTC, the 1-year+ dormant supply is used. The change in the inventory, therefore, would be the changes happening in this part of the cryptocurrency’s supply.

为了衡量BTC的库存，使用了1年+休眠供应。因此，库存的变化将是加密货币供应的这一部分中发生的变化。

When the value of Apparent Demand is positive, it means BTC’s inventory is seeing a larger decrease than its production. This kind of trend signals that there is demand present for the asset that’s pulling coins out of the inventory.

当明显需求的价值为正时，这意味着BTC的库存比其产量的减少更大。这种趋势信号表明资产中存在需求，将硬币从库存中撤出。

On the other hand, the metric being under zero suggests coins are being stashed away in the inventory, potentially because of low demand, which is putting downward pressure on the price of the asset.

另一方面，零低于零的指标表明硬币被藏在库存中，这可能是由于需求较低，这造成了资产价格的下降压力。

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day sum of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand over the past year:As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Apparent Demand rose to sharp positive levels during the last couple of months of 2024, signaling strong demand, but this year, the trend has noted a shift.

这是一张图表，显示了过去一年比特币明显需求的30天总和的趋势：如上图所示，比特币明显的需求在2024年的最后几个月中上升到了急剧的正面水平，这表明了强劲的需求，但是今年，趋势指出了变化。

During January and February, demand waned, but still remained at positive levels. This changed in March, when it took a dive into negative territory. This month, the metric appears to have undergone another change in direction as it’s now on the rise again.

在一月和二月期间，需求减弱，但仍处于积极水平。 3月，这发生了变化，当时它进入了负面领域。本月，该指标似乎已经发生了另一个方向变化，因为它又在上升。

While this could be an early sign that there is a shift occurring in market behavior, the quant warns, “interpreting this as the beginning of a new bullish phase may be premature.”

虽然这可能是一个早期的迹象表明，市场行为发生了变化，但量子警告说：“将其解释为新的看涨阶段的开始可能为时过早。”

Something that could add credence to the idea that this may not be a shift away from a bearish trajectory at all is the trend followed back in the 2021 cycle.

可以使这一想法的信任是，这可能根本不是与看跌轨迹的转变的想法是2021年周期之后的趋势。

From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Apparent Demand turned negative as the 2021 bull market topped out. After forming a bottom in January 2022, though, the indicator showed a reversal and by the middle of the year, it recovered all the way back into the positive zone.

从图表中，可以看到比特币明显的需求变成负面，因为2021年牛市的最高点。但是，在2022年1月形成底部之后，该指标显示出逆转，到了今年中期，它一直恢复到正区域。

But clearly, while the metric may have displayed this trend, the cryptocurrency was still in the clutches of a bear market, which was only pulling its price deeper. “So while this current bounce is noteworthy, it’s more likely a pause in pressure, not a definitive signal of accumulation or a macro bottom,” concludes the analyst.

但是很明显，尽管该指标可能已经显示出这种趋势，但加密货币仍处于熊市的离合器状态，这只是更深入地提高了其价格。分析师总结说：“因此，尽管当前的反弹值得注意，但压力的暂停很可能不是确定的积累信号或宏底部的信号。”

The post Bitcoin Apparent Demand Recovering From March Lows, But New Bullish Trend Remains Unclear appeared first on CryptoQuant.

比特币明显从3月份的低点恢复了比特币的需求，但新看涨趋势仍然不清楚，首先出现在隐态上。