比特幣的行為更像是黃金，因為美國衰退風險攀升

比特幣開始獨立於美國股票，與傳統的安全資產（如黃金）這樣的行為表現出更多的行為，這是一些分析師稱，這一趨勢強調了其在全球金融中不斷發展的作用。

Bitcoin's price action is starting to show a concerning trend, according to some analysts. They say the world's leading cryptocurrency is now acting more like gold than a tech stock, which could be a sign of increasing investor confidence in its long-term value.

一些分析師稱，比特幣的價格行動開始顯示出令人擔憂的趨勢。他們說，現在，全球領先的加密貨幣比黃金更像是黃金，這可能是增加投資者對其長期價值的信心的跡象。

However, the battered altcoins and the lagging S&P 500 suggest that broader economic woes, such as a possible recession, could still impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

但是，受毆打的山寨幣和落後的標準普爾500號表明，更廣泛的經濟困境（例如可能的經濟衰退）仍然可能影響比特幣的軌跡。

Indeed, the cryptocurrency is shrugging off the economic tensions, remaining notably strong despite the U.S. ramping tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% and China responding in kind by mid-April.

確實，加密貨幣正在擺脫經濟緊張局勢，儘管美國對中國進口的關稅提高到125％，而在4月中旬，中國對中國的反應也很大。

"Bitcoin is holding better than the S&P 500 and we're starting to see more stress in altcoins and stock indexes, but not in Bitcoin," said Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik.

Nansen首席執行官Alex Svanevik說：“比特幣的持有量比標準普爾500指數更好，我們開始看到山寨幣和庫存指數的壓力更大，但在比特幣中沒有。”

"This is starting to look more like a 'risk-off' move in the broader market with Bitcoin acting as a risk-free asset, similar to how gold acts in a down market."

“這開始看起來更像是在更廣闊的市場中的'冒險'轉移，比特幣充當無風險的資產，類似於黃金在下跌市場中的作用。”

He added that this behavior is more consistent with investor interest in Bitcoin's long-term value, which is increasing.

他補充說，這種行為與投資者對比特幣長期價值的興趣更加一致，這正在增加。

"It's also interesting to note that in a broader recessionary scenario, any asset viewed through a risk lens would be affected, including Bitcoin."

“還有趣的是，在更廣泛的衰退情況下，包括比特幣在內的風險鏡頭觀察的任何資產都會受到影響。”

However, there are tailwinds coming for Bitcoin from Washington.

但是，華盛頓的比特幣會出現風風。

Earlier this year, President Trump's executive order laid the groundwork for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, initially composed of confiscated BTC, with plans to expand it using “budget-neutral” strategies.

今年早些時候，特朗普總統的行政命令為美國戰略比特幣儲備金奠定了基礎，該保護局最初由被沒收的BTC組成，併計劃使用“預算中性”策略擴大它。

One idea being explored is using tariff revenue and revaluing gold certificates to create financial room for Bitcoin accumulation—without selling any gold, according to Bo Hines, a key figure in the administration’s digital asset policy advisory group.

探索的一個想法是使用關稅收入和重估黃金證書來為比特幣積累創造金融室，而沒有出售任何黃金，這是該政府數字資產政策諮詢小組的關鍵人物Bo Hines的說法。

At the same time, recession fears are intensifying. JPMorgan now pegs the odds of a U.S. downturn in 2025 at 60%, up from 40%, citing persistent trade frictions and hefty tariffs.

同時，經濟衰退的恐懼正在加劇。摩根大通現在以持續的貿易摩擦和高額關稅為例，2025年在2025年下滑的機率為60％。

The bank expects the Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts by September and continue easing into 2026, potentially lowering rates to 3%.

該銀行預計美聯儲將在9月開始降低利率，並繼續放鬆到2026年，可能會將利率降低到3％。

As global economic uncertainty deepens, Bitcoin's ability to stand apart from traditional markets could solidify its status as a modern-day hedge.

隨著全球經濟不確定性的加深，比特幣與傳統市場區分開的能力可以鞏固其作為現代對沖的地位。