比特币的行为更像是黄金，因为美国衰退风险攀升

比特币开始独立于美国股票，与传统的安全资产（如黄金）这样的行为表现出更多的行为，这是一些分析师称，这一趋势强调了其在全球金融中不断发展的作用。

Bitcoin's price action is starting to show a concerning trend, according to some analysts. They say the world's leading cryptocurrency is now acting more like gold than a tech stock, which could be a sign of increasing investor confidence in its long-term value.

一些分析师称，比特币的价格行动开始显示出令人担忧的趋势。他们说，现在，全球领先的加密货币比黄金更像是黄金，这可能是增加投资者对其长期价值的信心的迹象。

However, the battered altcoins and the lagging S&P 500 suggest that broader economic woes, such as a possible recession, could still impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

但是，受殴打的山寨币和落后的标准普尔500号表明，更广泛的经济困境（例如可能的经济衰退）仍然可能影响比特币的轨迹。

Indeed, the cryptocurrency is shrugging off the economic tensions, remaining notably strong despite the U.S. ramping tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% and China responding in kind by mid-April.

确实，加密货币正在摆脱经济紧张局势，尽管美国对中国进口的关税提高到125％，而在4月中旬，中国对中国的反应也很大。

"Bitcoin is holding better than the S&P 500 and we're starting to see more stress in altcoins and stock indexes, but not in Bitcoin," said Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik.

Nansen首席执行官Alex Svanevik说：“比特币的持有量比标准普尔500指数更好，我们开始看到山寨币和库存指数的压力更大，但在比特币中没有。”

"This is starting to look more like a 'risk-off' move in the broader market with Bitcoin acting as a risk-free asset, similar to how gold acts in a down market."

“这开始看起来更像是在更广阔的市场中的'冒险'转移，比特币充当无风险的资产，类似于黄金在下跌市场中的作用。”

He added that this behavior is more consistent with investor interest in Bitcoin's long-term value, which is increasing.

他补充说，这种行为与投资者对比特币长期价值的兴趣更加一致，这正在增加。

"It's also interesting to note that in a broader recessionary scenario, any asset viewed through a risk lens would be affected, including Bitcoin."

“还有趣的是，在更广泛的衰退情况下，包括比特币在内的风险镜头观察的任何资产都会受到影响。”

However, there are tailwinds coming for Bitcoin from Washington.

但是，华盛顿的比特币会出现风风。

Earlier this year, President Trump's executive order laid the groundwork for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, initially composed of confiscated BTC, with plans to expand it using “budget-neutral” strategies.

今年早些时候，特朗普总统的行政命令为美国战略比特币储备金奠定了基础，该保护局最初由被没收的BTC组成，并计划使用“预算中性”策略扩大它。

One idea being explored is using tariff revenue and revaluing gold certificates to create financial room for Bitcoin accumulation—without selling any gold, according to Bo Hines, a key figure in the administration’s digital asset policy advisory group.

探索的一个想法是使用关税收入和重估黄金证书来为比特币积累创造金融室，而没有出售任何黄金，这是该政府数字资产政策咨询小组的关键人物Bo Hines的说法。

At the same time, recession fears are intensifying. JPMorgan now pegs the odds of a U.S. downturn in 2025 at 60%, up from 40%, citing persistent trade frictions and hefty tariffs.

同时，经济衰退的恐惧正在加剧。摩根大通现在以持续的贸易摩擦和高额关税为例，2025年在2025年下滑的几率为60％。

The bank expects the Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts by September and continue easing into 2026, potentially lowering rates to 3%.

该银行预计美联储将在9月开始降低利率，并继续放松到2026年，可能会将利率降低到3％。

As global economic uncertainty deepens, Bitcoin's ability to stand apart from traditional markets could solidify its status as a modern-day hedge.

随着全球经济不确定性的加深，比特币与传统市场区分开的能力可以巩固其作为现代对冲的地位。