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聯準會降息的決定明顯較晚,但仍然產生了積極效果,而且如果這不是最後一次降息也會繼續下去。
The long-awaited interest rate cut finally happened, having an immediate impact on the markets and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) together with the rest of the crypto sector. At the same time, major investors and even entire nations are not backing down from their cautious attitude toward the future fate of the dollar, prioritizing Bitcoin as an alternative reserve asset.
期待已久的降息終於發生了,對市場和比特幣(加密貨幣:BTC)以及加密貨幣行業的其他部分產生了直接影響。同時,主要投資者甚至整個國家都沒有放棄對美元未來命運的謹慎態度,優先考慮將比特幣作為替代儲備資產。
Among such investors, we can observe both the Blackrock you know, and entire states like Salvador and unexpectedly Bhutan, that the accumulation of Bitcoin for many remained shady. All of this is happening against the backdrop that interest rates may not work and a major collapse awaits the dollar, as the same Blackrock is openly discussing.
在這些投資者中,我們可以觀察到,無論是你所知道的貝萊德,還是薩爾瓦多和不丹等整個國家,許多人對比特幣的積累仍然是陰暗的。所有這一切都是在利率可能不起作用、美元即將大幅崩潰的背景下發生的,正如貝萊德公開討論的那樣。
The Impact of the Fed on the Bitcoin Market
聯準會對比特幣市場的影響
The US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates obviously late, but it still had a positive effect, and if this is not the last cut it will continue. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is currently still trading around $63K within this channel from March, where we have again hit multi-month resistance and if we can’t break it we may go back to test the $52K support.
聯準會降息的決定明顯較晚,但仍然產生了積極效果,而且如果這不是最後一次降息也會繼續下去。與此同時,比特幣價格目前仍在 3 月以來的該通道內約 63,000 美元交易,我們再次觸及數月阻力位,如果我們無法突破它,我們可能會回測試 52,000 美元的支撐位。
However, large investors are not paying attention to these short to medium-term details and continue to buy Bitcoin as part of their DCA strategy. El Salvador continues to buy more with already 5878 Bitcoins, apparently seeing its value over the long haul, and there is also a country that unlike many without loud announcements is accumulating.
然而,大型投資者並沒有關注這些中短期細節,而是繼續購買比特幣作為其 DCA 策略的一部分。薩爾瓦多繼續購買更多比特幣,已經購買了 5878 枚比特幣,顯然是看到了它的長期價值,而且還有一個國家與許多沒有大聲宣布的國家不同,它正在積累比特幣。
The Kingdom of Bhutan has acquired and mined 13,000 Bitcoins since 2019, more than double what El Salvador acquired in September 2021. This encourages us to look deeper than general statements and wonder how many investors are actually playing the long game and accumulating Bitcoin without much fuss.
自2019 年以來,不丹王國已收購並開採了13,000 枚比特幣,是薩爾瓦多在2021 年9 月收購的兩倍多。上在玩長線遊戲並毫不費力地累積比特幣。
Blackrock Reminds Everyone of What Is to Come for the Dollar
貝萊德提醒大家美元的未來
Given all of Blackrock’s hypothetical hidden motives and actions, they serve as a pretty good indicator of how big investors view the market in terms of a long-term strategy, as their recent report also makes clear.
考慮到貝萊德所有假設的隱藏動機和行動,它們可以很好地表明大投資者如何從長期戰略角度看待市場,正如他們最近的報告所明確的那樣。
Blackrock is quietly preparing for the US Fed crisis with the help of Bitcoin hoarding. The fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve has officially started the cycle of rate cuts, having already reduced it by 0.5%, with another 0.5% coming this year and by 1% next year, investors estimate as a further depreciation of the dollar and the inevitable quantitative easing.
貝萊德正在透過囤積比特幣悄悄為聯準會危機做準備。事實上,聯準會已正式啟動降息週期,已降息0.5%,今年將再降息0.5%,明年將降息1%,投資者預計美元將進一步貶值,這是不可避免的。
According to some investors, the U.S. Federal Reserve has literally announced a schedule for devaluation of the dollar, and Blackrock, which is preparing to assess the U.S. also to a debt crisis of the $35T respectively national debt, which grows by $1T every 100 days.
據一些投資者稱,聯準會實際上已經宣布了美元貶值的時間表,而貝萊德正準備評估美國的債務危機,其國債每100美元就會增加1T美元。
Fearing that the U.S. is on the verge of collapse the world’s largest asset manager Blackrock warns us of its growing concern and predicts that this debt spiral will lead to a further increase in institutional investor interest in Bitcoin.
由於擔心美國瀕臨崩潰,全球最大的資產管理公司貝萊德警告我們日益增長的擔憂,並預測這種債務螺旋式上升將導致機構投資者對比特幣的興趣進一步增加。
That’s why Blackrock, like many other investors is hoarding Bitcoins, taking them out of the market as much as they can before demand for them grows, and maybe even artificially keeping the price low for as long as possible.
這就是為什麼貝萊德像許多其他投資者一樣囤積比特幣,在比特幣需求增長之前盡可能地將其撤出市場,甚至可能人為地盡可能長時間地保持低價。
Indicators that Big Investors Pay Attention To
大投資者關注的指標
Let’s look at the dollar’s uptrend since 2010 and we also see that the rise has continued since then, however, we also see that it has fallen below its major support twice between November 2020 and November 2021.
讓我們看看美元自2010年以來的上漲趨勢,我們也看到此後上漲一直持續,然而,我們也看到它在2020年11月至2021年11月期間兩次跌破其主要支撐位。
Compare Bitcoin to this period when the US dollar fell below that support between November 2020th and November 2021st – Bitcoin parabolic exploded. It was during this time that Bitcoin had the most powerful bullish rise in that entire cycle of $10K to $69K is what was seen the last time the dollar fell below this support.
將比特幣與 2020 年 11 月至 2021 年 11 月期間美元跌破該支撐位的時期進行比較—比特幣拋物線爆炸。正是在這段時間,比特幣在整個週期中出現了最強勁的看漲上漲,從 10,000 美元到 69,000 美元,這也是上次美元跌破這一支撐位時所看到的。
Gold is also very correlated, hitting all-time highs on the back of a falling dollar, and their behavior is very similar.
黃金的相關性也很強,在美元貶值的情況下創下歷史新高,而且它們的行為非常相似。
What Are the Movements from Other Nations?
其他國家的動向是什麼?
Going back to the Blackrock paper, they point out that growing concern in the US and abroad about the state of the US federal deficit and debt has increased the attractiveness of potential alternative reserve assets as insurance against possible future events affecting US dollars.
回到貝萊德的論文,他們指出,美國國內外對美國聯邦赤字和債務狀況的日益擔憂,增加了潛在替代儲備資產的吸引力,作為防範未來可能影響美元的事件的保險。
Some are calling Bitcoin amendment money similar to the Second Amendment of the US constitution, also add that the US debt load of $35T and it seems that this dynamic is happening in other countries where debt is accumulating at a record pace.
有些人稱比特幣修正案類似於美國憲法第二修正案,也補充說美國的債務負擔為 35T 美元,而這種動態似乎也發生在其他債務以創紀錄速度累積的國家。
This gives reason to think that other currencies will be in big trouble, not just the US dollar because it is just the leader of the same fiat system. Blackrock adds that in their experience with their clients, this explains a large part of the recent growing interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin, as evidenced by El Salvador and Bhutan as we mentioned above, which may have already finally defined Bitcoin and that very alternative reserve asset
這讓我們有理由認為其他貨幣將陷入大麻煩,而不僅僅是美元,因為它只是同一法定體系的領導者。貝萊德補充說,根據他們與客戶的經驗,這在很大程度上解釋了機構投資者最近對比特幣日益增長的興趣,正如我們上面提到的薩爾瓦多和不丹所證明的那樣,這可能已經最終定義了比特幣和非常另類的儲備資產
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