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美联储降息的决定明显较晚,但仍然产生了积极效果,而且如果这不是最后一次降息也会继续下去。
The long-awaited interest rate cut finally happened, having an immediate impact on the markets and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) together with the rest of the crypto sector. At the same time, major investors and even entire nations are not backing down from their cautious attitude toward the future fate of the dollar, prioritizing Bitcoin as an alternative reserve asset.
期待已久的降息终于发生了,对市场和比特币(加密货币:BTC)以及加密货币行业的其他部分产生了直接影响。与此同时,主要投资者甚至整个国家都没有放弃对美元未来命运的谨慎态度,优先考虑将比特币作为替代储备资产。
Among such investors, we can observe both the Blackrock you know, and entire states like Salvador and unexpectedly Bhutan, that the accumulation of Bitcoin for many remained shady. All of this is happening against the backdrop that interest rates may not work and a major collapse awaits the dollar, as the same Blackrock is openly discussing.
在这些投资者中,我们可以观察到,无论是你所知道的贝莱德,还是萨尔瓦多和不丹等整个国家,许多人对比特币的积累仍然是阴暗的。所有这一切都是在利率可能不起作用、美元即将大幅崩溃的背景下发生的,正如贝莱德公开讨论的那样。
The Impact of the Fed on the Bitcoin Market
美联储对比特币市场的影响
The US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates obviously late, but it still had a positive effect, and if this is not the last cut it will continue. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is currently still trading around $63K within this channel from March, where we have again hit multi-month resistance and if we can’t break it we may go back to test the $52K support.
美联储降息的决定明显较晚,但仍然产生了积极效果,而且如果这不是最后一次降息也会继续下去。与此同时,比特币价格目前仍在 3 月份以来的该通道内 63,000 美元左右交易,我们再次触及数月阻力位,如果我们无法突破它,我们可能会回测试 52,000 美元的支撑位。
However, large investors are not paying attention to these short to medium-term details and continue to buy Bitcoin as part of their DCA strategy. El Salvador continues to buy more with already 5878 Bitcoins, apparently seeing its value over the long haul, and there is also a country that unlike many without loud announcements is accumulating.
然而,大型投资者并没有关注这些中短期细节,而是继续购买比特币作为其 DCA 策略的一部分。萨尔瓦多继续购买更多比特币,已经购买了 5878 枚比特币,显然是看到了它的长期价值,而且还有一个国家与许多没有大声宣布的国家不同,它正在积累比特币。
The Kingdom of Bhutan has acquired and mined 13,000 Bitcoins since 2019, more than double what El Salvador acquired in September 2021. This encourages us to look deeper than general statements and wonder how many investors are actually playing the long game and accumulating Bitcoin without much fuss.
自 2019 年以来,不丹王国已收购并开采了 13,000 枚比特币,是萨尔瓦多在 2021 年 9 月收购的两倍多。这鼓励我们比一般陈述更深入地研究,并想知道有多少投资者实际上在玩长线游戏并毫不费力地积累比特币。
Blackrock Reminds Everyone of What Is to Come for the Dollar
贝莱德提醒大家美元的未来
Given all of Blackrock’s hypothetical hidden motives and actions, they serve as a pretty good indicator of how big investors view the market in terms of a long-term strategy, as their recent report also makes clear.
考虑到贝莱德所有假设的隐藏动机和行动,它们可以很好地表明大投资者如何从长期战略角度看待市场,正如他们最近的报告所明确的那样。
Blackrock is quietly preparing for the US Fed crisis with the help of Bitcoin hoarding. The fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve has officially started the cycle of rate cuts, having already reduced it by 0.5%, with another 0.5% coming this year and by 1% next year, investors estimate as a further depreciation of the dollar and the inevitable quantitative easing.
贝莱德正在通过囤积比特币悄悄为美联储危机做准备。事实上,美联储已正式启动降息周期,已降息0.5%,今年将再降息0.5%,明年将降息1%,投资者预计美元将进一步贬值,这是不可避免的。量化宽松。
According to some investors, the U.S. Federal Reserve has literally announced a schedule for devaluation of the dollar, and Blackrock, which is preparing to assess the U.S. also to a debt crisis of the $35T respectively national debt, which grows by $1T every 100 days.
据一些投资者称,美联储实际上已经宣布了美元贬值的时间表,而贝莱德正准备评估美国的债务危机,其国债每100美元就会增长1T美元。天。
Fearing that the U.S. is on the verge of collapse the world’s largest asset manager Blackrock warns us of its growing concern and predicts that this debt spiral will lead to a further increase in institutional investor interest in Bitcoin.
由于担心美国濒临崩溃,全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德警告我们其日益增长的担忧,并预测这种债务螺旋式上升将导致机构投资者对比特币的兴趣进一步增加。
That’s why Blackrock, like many other investors is hoarding Bitcoins, taking them out of the market as much as they can before demand for them grows, and maybe even artificially keeping the price low for as long as possible.
这就是为什么贝莱德像许多其他投资者一样囤积比特币,在比特币需求增长之前尽可能地将其撤出市场,甚至可能人为地尽可能长时间地保持低价。
Indicators that Big Investors Pay Attention To
大投资者关注的指标
Let’s look at the dollar’s uptrend since 2010 and we also see that the rise has continued since then, however, we also see that it has fallen below its major support twice between November 2020 and November 2021.
让我们看看美元自2010年以来的上涨趋势,我们也看到此后上涨一直持续,然而,我们也看到它在2020年11月至2021年11月期间两次跌破其主要支撑位。
Compare Bitcoin to this period when the US dollar fell below that support between November 2020th and November 2021st – Bitcoin parabolic exploded. It was during this time that Bitcoin had the most powerful bullish rise in that entire cycle of $10K to $69K is what was seen the last time the dollar fell below this support.
将比特币与 2020 年 11 月至 2021 年 11 月期间美元跌破该支撑位的时期进行比较——比特币抛物线爆炸。正是在这段时间,比特币在整个周期中出现了最强劲的看涨上涨,从 10,000 美元到 69,000 美元,这也是上次美元跌破这一支撑位时所看到的。
Gold is also very correlated, hitting all-time highs on the back of a falling dollar, and their behavior is very similar.
黄金的相关性也很强,在美元贬值的情况下创下历史新高,而且它们的行为非常相似。
What Are the Movements from Other Nations?
其他国家的动向是什么?
Going back to the Blackrock paper, they point out that growing concern in the US and abroad about the state of the US federal deficit and debt has increased the attractiveness of potential alternative reserve assets as insurance against possible future events affecting US dollars.
回到贝莱德的论文,他们指出,美国国内外对美国联邦赤字和债务状况的日益担忧,增加了潜在替代储备资产的吸引力,作为防范未来可能影响美元的事件的保险。
Some are calling Bitcoin amendment money similar to the Second Amendment of the US constitution, also add that the US debt load of $35T and it seems that this dynamic is happening in other countries where debt is accumulating at a record pace.
一些人称比特币修正案类似于美国宪法第二修正案,还补充说美国的债务负担为 35T 美元,而且这种动态似乎也发生在其他债务以创纪录速度积累的国家。
This gives reason to think that other currencies will be in big trouble, not just the US dollar because it is just the leader of the same fiat system. Blackrock adds that in their experience with their clients, this explains a large part of the recent growing interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin, as evidenced by El Salvador and Bhutan as we mentioned above, which may have already finally defined Bitcoin and that very alternative reserve asset
这让我们有理由认为其他货币将陷入大麻烦,而不仅仅是美元,因为它只是同一法定体系的领导者。贝莱德补充说,根据他们与客户的经验,这在很大程度上解释了机构投资者最近对比特币日益增长的兴趣,正如我们上面提到的萨尔瓦多和不丹所证明的那样,这可能已经最终定义了比特币和非常另类的储备资产
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