本文分析了15個常用指標用於逃脫頂部，並發現指標的五分之一已經在2024年達到頂峰。

作者：Biteye核心貢獻者Viee每個牛市不僅創造財富，而且還產生了無數的財富幻想。當市場感到興奮時，很少有人能保持清醒並優雅地“逃脫”。

This article analyzes 15 commonly used indicators for escaping tops and finds that one-fifth of the indicators have already peaked in 2024.

本文分析了15個常用指標用於逃脫頂部，並發現指標的五分之一已經在2024年達到頂峰。

Author: Biteye core contributor Viee

作者：Biteye核心貢獻者Viee

Each bull market not only creates wealth, but also creates countless illusions of wealth. When the market is excited, few people can stay sober and "escape" gracefully. In the face of a market that soars and plummets, how to exit the market in a timely manner near the high point and avoid asset shrinkage caused by a deep correction requires us to comprehensively analyze multiple market indicators.

每個牛市不僅創造財富，而且還產生了無數的財富幻想。當市場感到興奮時，很少有人能保持清醒並優雅地“逃脫”。面對一個飆升和下跌的市場，如何及時離開高點附近的市場並避免由深度糾正引起的資產收縮，這需要我們全面分析多個市場指標。

In this article, Biteye analyzed 15 commonly used escape indicators and found that one-fifth of the indicators have reached the escape range in 24 years, namely: Bitcoin Rhodl ratio, USDT current account management, and altcoin seasonal index. In this case, how should we deal with the subsequent development of the market?

在本文中，Biteye分析了15個常用的逃生指標，發現其中五分之一的指標已在24年內達到逃生範圍，即：比特幣Rhodl比率，USDT當前帳戶管理和AltCoin季節性指數。在這種情況下，我們應該如何應對後續市場的發展？

1. Introduction to indicators

1。指標簡介

1. AHR999 Hoarding Index

1。AHR999ho積指數

This indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist Bitcoin fixed investment users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. This indicator implies the rate of return of short-term Bitcoin fixed investment and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.

該指標是由微博用戶AHR999創建的，以幫助比特幣固定的投資用戶根據計時策略做出投資決策。該指標意味著短期比特幣固定投資的回報率以及比特幣價格與預期估值的偏差。

Index range:

索引範圍：

>4: It is recommended to significantly reduce the position

> 4：建議顯著降低位置

1.2-4: Wait and see area, stay alert

1.2-4：等待並查看區域，保持警惕

0.45-1.2: Fixed investment area, you can gradually build positions

0.45-1.2：固定的投資領域，您可以逐漸建立職位

<0.45: Strong bottom-fishing area

<0.45：強大的底釣區域

🔥 Current status: The indicator value is 1.21, which has not yet reached the top and is in a wait-and-see range. It is recommended to remain cautious.

🔥當前狀態：指示器值為1.21，尚未達到頂部並且在等待範圍內。建議保持謹慎。

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999

鏈接：https：//www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999

2. AHR999 escape top indicator

2。AHR999逃生頂部指示器

The AHR999 escape top indicator is a sister indicator of the HODL indicator, which is specifically used to identify the market top area. This indicator determines whether the market is overheated by observing the degree of price deviation from the long-term trend line. It gave accurate early warning signals at the top of the two major bull markets in 2017 and 2021, and is an important tool to avoid chasing highs.

AHR999逃生頂部指標是HODL指標的姐妹指標，該指標專門用於識別市場頂部區域。該指標通過觀察長期趨勢線的價格偏差程度來確定市場是否過熱。它在2017年和2021年在兩個主要牛市的頂部提供了準確的預警信號，並且是避免追逐高點的重要工具。

Index range:

索引範圍：

<=0.45: Severe overheating, consider escaping

<= 0.45：嚴重的過熱，考慮逃脫

🔥 Current status: The indicator value is 2.48, and no peak signal has appeared in this period.

🔥當前狀態：指示器值為2.48，在此期間沒有出現峰信號。

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999-escape

鏈接：https：//www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999-escape

3. Pi cycle top indicator

3。pi循環頂部指示器

The Pi Cycle Top indicator predicts potential market tops by comparing the relationship between the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average. Historically, when the moving averages cross, Bitcoin's price is usually close to a cycle top, indicating a potential market reversal.

PI週期頂部指標通過比較111天移動平均線與350天移動平均線之間的關係來預測潛在的市場頂部。從歷史上看，當移動平均值交叉時，比特幣的價格通常接近週期頂部，表明潛在的市場逆轉。

Signal characteristics:

信號特徵：

Two-line crossover: top signal trigger

兩行跨界：頂信號觸發器

Fast divergence: bearish outlook

快速分歧：看跌前景

Gradual approach: alert

漸進方法：警報

🔥 Current status: The two moving averages are still far apart, and no top signal has appeared yet. The next crossover is expected to be in October 2025.

🔥當前狀態：兩個移動平均值仍然相距較遠，並且還沒有出現頂部信號。下一個跨界車預計將是2025年10月。

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-prediction/

鏈接：https：//www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-prediction/

4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

4。比特幣彩虹圖

The Rainbow Chart is an intuitive long-term valuation model that divides the Bitcoin price range into nine different color bands. The model is based on logarithmic regression and takes into account the long-term growth characteristics and cyclical characteristics of Bitcoin. In the past market cycles, the Rainbow Chart has shown a good guiding role, especially in identifying extreme areas.

彩虹圖是一個直觀的長期評估模型，將比特幣價格範圍分為九個不同的顏色帶。該模型基於對數回歸，並考慮了比特幣的長期生長特徵和周期性特徵。在過去的市場週期中，彩虹圖表現出了很好的指導作用，尤其是在識別極端領域。

Index range:

索引範圍：

Red: Bubble area, sell signal

紅色：氣泡區，賣信號

Yellow: Overheated area, stay alert

黃色：過熱區域，保持警覺

Green: Healthy zone, holding zone

綠色：健康區域，保持區域

Blue: Value zone, buying opportunity

藍色：價值區，購買機會

🔥 Current status: The price is in the green zone, indicating that the valuation is relatively reasonable and no top signal has appeared.

🔥當前狀態：價格在綠色區域，表明估值相對合理，沒有出現最高信號。

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/bitcoin-rainbow-chart

鏈接：https：//www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/bitcoin-rainbow-chart

5. Bitcoin terminal price indicator

5。比特幣終端價格指標

The terminal price is the transfer price multiplied by 21. The transfer price needs to divide the number of days of coins destroyed by the existing bitcoin supply and its circulation time. This indicator can effectively filter out market speculation factors and reflect the true value of the Bitcoin network.

終端價格是轉讓價格乘以21。轉讓價格需要將現有比特幣供應銷毀的硬幣數及其循環時間劃分。該指標可以有效地濾除市場投機因素，並反映比特幣網絡的真實價值。

Signal characteristics: The closer the Bitcoin price is to the red line, the closer the market is to the top.

信號特徵：比特幣價格越接近紅線，市場越接近最高。

🔥 Current status: Not yet reached the top

🔥當前狀態：尚未達到頂部

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/terminal-price/

鏈接：https：//www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/terminal-price/

6. Bitcoin market capitalization

6。比特幣市值

The market capitalization share indicator reflects Bitcoin's dominance in the entire cryptocurrency market. This indicator is usually used to judge market cycles and capital flows. When Bitcoin's market

市值份額指標反映了比特幣在整個加密貨幣市場中的主導地位。該指標通常用於判斷市場週期和資本流動。當比特幣的市場