This article analyzes 15 commonly used indicators for escaping tops and finds that one-fifth of the indicators have already peaked in 2024.

Author: Biteye core contributor Viee Each bull market not only creates wealth, but also creates countless illusions of wealth. When the market is excited, few people can stay sober and "escape" gracefully.

This article analyzes 15 commonly used indicators for escaping tops and finds that one-fifth of the indicators have already peaked in 2024.

Author: Biteye core contributor Viee

Each bull market not only creates wealth, but also creates countless illusions of wealth. When the market is excited, few people can stay sober and "escape" gracefully. In the face of a market that soars and plummets, how to exit the market in a timely manner near the high point and avoid asset shrinkage caused by a deep correction requires us to comprehensively analyze multiple market indicators.

In this article, Biteye analyzed 15 commonly used escape indicators and found that one-fifth of the indicators have reached the escape range in 24 years, namely: Bitcoin Rhodl ratio, USDT current account management, and altcoin seasonal index. In this case, how should we deal with the subsequent development of the market?

1. Introduction to indicators

1. AHR999 Hoarding Index

This indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist Bitcoin fixed investment users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. This indicator implies the rate of return of short-term Bitcoin fixed investment and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.

Index range:

>4: It is recommended to significantly reduce the position

1.2-4: Wait and see area, stay alert

0.45-1.2: Fixed investment area, you can gradually build positions

<0.45: Strong bottom-fishing area

🔥 Current status: The indicator value is 1.21, which has not yet reached the top and is in a wait-and-see range. It is recommended to remain cautious.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999

2. AHR999 escape top indicator

The AHR999 escape top indicator is a sister indicator of the HODL indicator, which is specifically used to identify the market top area. This indicator determines whether the market is overheated by observing the degree of price deviation from the long-term trend line. It gave accurate early warning signals at the top of the two major bull markets in 2017 and 2021, and is an important tool to avoid chasing highs.

Index range:

<=0.45: Severe overheating, consider escaping

🔥 Current status: The indicator value is 2.48, and no peak signal has appeared in this period.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999-escape

3. Pi cycle top indicator

The Pi Cycle Top indicator predicts potential market tops by comparing the relationship between the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average. Historically, when the moving averages cross, Bitcoin's price is usually close to a cycle top, indicating a potential market reversal.

Signal characteristics:

Two-line crossover: top signal trigger

Fast divergence: bearish outlook

Gradual approach: alert

🔥 Current status: The two moving averages are still far apart, and no top signal has appeared yet. The next crossover is expected to be in October 2025.

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-prediction/

4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

The Rainbow Chart is an intuitive long-term valuation model that divides the Bitcoin price range into nine different color bands. The model is based on logarithmic regression and takes into account the long-term growth characteristics and cyclical characteristics of Bitcoin. In the past market cycles, the Rainbow Chart has shown a good guiding role, especially in identifying extreme areas.

Index range:

Red: Bubble area, sell signal

Yellow: Overheated area, stay alert

Green: Healthy zone, holding zone

Blue: Value zone, buying opportunity

🔥 Current status: The price is in the green zone, indicating that the valuation is relatively reasonable and no top signal has appeared.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/bitcoin-rainbow-chart

5. Bitcoin terminal price indicator

The terminal price is the transfer price multiplied by 21. The transfer price needs to divide the number of days of coins destroyed by the existing bitcoin supply and its circulation time. This indicator can effectively filter out market speculation factors and reflect the true value of the Bitcoin network.

Signal characteristics: The closer the Bitcoin price is to the red line, the closer the market is to the top.

🔥 Current status: Not yet reached the top

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/terminal-price/

6. Bitcoin market capitalization

The market capitalization share indicator reflects Bitcoin's dominance in the entire cryptocurrency market. This indicator is usually used to judge market cycles and capital flows. When Bitcoin's market