Bitcoin's Recent Price Struggles Have Sparked a Divide Among Crypto Experts

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declares Bitcoin's bull cycle dead, forecasting up to 12 months of decline. By Rakesh.output: Bitcoin's recent price struggles have sparked a divide among crypto experts.弱気感情へのシフトを予測し、数ヶ月の衰退や停滞を予測する人もいれば、集会にはまだ成長する余地があると確信している人もいます。

Cryptocurrency markets have seen a shift in sentiment, with experts divided on whether Bitcoin's recent price struggles signal further decline or a continuation of the rally.

暗号通貨市場では、センチメントの変化が見られ、専門家は、ビットコインの最近の価格闘争がさらに減少するか、集会の継続を示すかどうかについて分割されています。

As Bitcoin hovers in the mid-$80,000s, analysts are examining on-chain metrics and broader market trends to anticipate the next move.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin's bull cycle has ended, expecting up to 12 months of decline or stagnation.

"The data keeps signaling bearish. Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action," he warns.

According to Ju, all on-chain metrics point to a bear market as liquidity dries up and whales sell Bitcoin at lower prices.

Weak Demand, Fading Accumulation

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports weakening Bitcoin fundamentals in its March report.

Since Bitcoin's second attempt to break above $105,000 in late January failed, demand has been weak, and accumulation has diminished.

The failed rally triggered market contraction and consolidation, prolonging Bitcoin's slump.

But unlike the earlier phase, where a strong dip-buying response was evident at lower price levels, this time, there was no significant buying activity.

しかし、より低い価格レベルで強力なDip-Buying応答が明らかになった以前の段階とは異なり、今回は重要な購入活動はありませんでした。

This shift in behavior suggests a change in sentiment towards risk aversion and capital preservation, according to Glassnode.

"The lack of dip-buying at lower levels suggests that capital rotation is underway, potentially leading to a more prolonged consolidation or corrective phase before the market finds a firm support base."

「より低いレベルでの浸漬購入の欠如は、資本の回転が進行中であることを示唆しており、市場がしっかりしたサポートベースを見つける前に、より長期にわたる統合または是正段階につながる可能性があります。」

Despite high trading volumes near the $100,000 threshold and large outflows from major exchanges, Bitcoin's price remained stagnant, and ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks, reflecting waning institutional interest.

100,000ドルのしきい値に近い高い取引量と主要な交換からの大規模な流出にもかかわらず、ビットコインの価格は停滞したままであり、ETFの流入は3週間連続してマイナスであり、制度的利益の衰退を反映しています。

Bitcoin futures funding rates are also converging towards 0, indicating weak demand for both long and short positions and growing trader uncertainty.

ビットコイン先物の資金調達率も0に収束しており、長所とショートポジションの両方に対する需要が弱く、トレーダーの不確実性の増加を示しています。

Broader macroeconomic concerns and trade tensions push investors away from risky assets like Bitcoin, Glassnode analysts say.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Bitcoin has held steady around the $82,000 support level for a week, showing a minor 1.3% change and no signs of volatility ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.

ビットコインは、水曜日に連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会議に先立って、1週間にわたって82,000ドルのサポートレベルを安定させており、1.3％のマイナーな変更とボラティリティの兆候は見られませんでした。

The FOMC meeting is crucial for the financial markets, as decisions on interest rates and monetary policy directly impact investor sentiment and market liquidity.

FOMC会議は、金利と金銭政策の決定が投資家の感情と市場の流動性に直接影響するため、金融市場にとって重要です。

Market expectations are high that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%.

The CME FedWatch tool, which tracks market expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, shows a 99% probability that no rate cuts will be announced.

将来の連邦準備制度の金利決定に対する市場の期待を追跡するCME FedWatchツールは、金利削減が発表されない99％の確率を示しています。

With no rate cut expected, Bitcoin's price is likely to continue its current sideways trajectory.

Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed, Says Trader

However, not all crypto market participants are bearish.

Crypto trader Astronomer stated in a series of posts on X that Bitcoin's bottom is confirmed, expressing surprise that many reputable traders expected lower prices after Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $80,000 institutional level.

Crypto Trader Astronomerは、Xの一連の投稿で、ビットコインの底が確認されていると述べ、多くの評判の良いトレーダーがビットコインが80,000ドルの機関レベルを短時間下回った後、より低い価格を期待していたことを表明しました。

According to Astronomer, Bitcoin has bottomed and reached its higher timeframe support of nearly $80,000.

Despite recent declines, the trader remains bullish, predicting Bitcoin will reach $160K-$200K by the end of this cycle.

Astronomer believes Bitcoin's current price action mirrors the parabolic advance seen in 2017, reinforcing his optimistic outlook.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin struggles to climb as demand weakens and uncertainty grows, signaling a cautious market ahead.