比特币最近的价格挣扎引发了加密专家的分歧

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju宣布比特币的公牛循环死亡，预测最多12个月的下降。 rakesh撰写：输出：比特币最近的价格挣扎引发了加密专家之间的分歧。尽管有些人预测向看跌情绪的转变，并预计数月的衰落或停滞，但其他人仍然有信心集会仍然有成长的空间。

Cryptocurrency markets have seen a shift in sentiment, with experts divided on whether Bitcoin's recent price struggles signal further decline or a continuation of the rally.

加密货币市场的观点发生了变化，专家在比特币最近的价格斗争中有所分歧，信号是进一步下降还是集会的延续。

As Bitcoin hovers in the mid-$80,000s, analysts are examining on-chain metrics and broader market trends to anticipate the next move.

随着比特币徘徊在80,000美元的中期，分析师正在研究链上指标和更广泛的市场趋势，以预测下一步行动。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin's bull cycle has ended, expecting up to 12 months of decline or stagnation.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju认为，比特币的牛周期已经结束，预计会下降12个月。

"The data keeps signaling bearish. Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action," he warns.

他警告说：“数据保留了信号。比特币牛周期结束了，预计有6-12个月的看跌或侧向价格动作。”

According to Ju, all on-chain metrics point to a bear market as liquidity dries up and whales sell Bitcoin at lower prices.

根据JU的说法，随着流动性干燥，鲸鱼以较低的价格出售比特币时，所有链度指标都指向熊市。

Weak Demand, Fading Accumulation

需求疲软，积累逐渐消失

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports weakening Bitcoin fundamentals in its March report.

链上分析公司玻璃节报告在3月份的报告中报告了比特币基本面的削弱。

Since Bitcoin's second attempt to break above $105,000 in late January failed, demand has been weak, and accumulation has diminished.

自从比特币在1月下旬销售超过105,000美元以上的第二次尝试以来，需求疲软，积累减少了。

The failed rally triggered market contraction and consolidation, prolonging Bitcoin's slump.

失败的集会引发了市场收缩和巩固，延长了比特币的低迷。

But unlike the earlier phase, where a strong dip-buying response was evident at lower price levels, this time, there was no significant buying activity.

但是，与较早的阶段不同，在较低的价格水平下，明显的销售响应很明显，这次没有大量的购买活动。

This shift in behavior suggests a change in sentiment towards risk aversion and capital preservation, according to Glassnode.

根据GlassNode的说法，这种行为转变表明，人们对风险规避和资本保存的情绪发生了变化。

"The lack of dip-buying at lower levels suggests that capital rotation is underway, potentially leading to a more prolonged consolidation or corrective phase before the market finds a firm support base."

“在较低级别上缺乏销售，这表明正在进行资本轮换，可能会导致更长的合并或纠正阶段在市场找到公司的支持基础之前。”

Despite high trading volumes near the $100,000 threshold and large outflows from major exchanges, Bitcoin's price remained stagnant, and ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks, reflecting waning institutional interest.

尽管交易量很高，近100,000美元的门槛和主要交易所的大量流出，但比特币的价格仍然停滞不前，ETF的流入连续三个星期一直为负面，反映了机构的兴趣。

Bitcoin futures funding rates are also converging towards 0, indicating weak demand for both long and short positions and growing trader uncertainty.

比特币期货融资率也趋向于0，表明对长位和短职位以及不断增长的交易者不确定性的需求较弱。

Broader macroeconomic concerns and trade tensions push investors away from risky assets like Bitcoin, Glassnode analysts say.

GlassNode分析师说，更广泛的宏观经济问题和贸易紧张局势使投资者摆脱了像比特币这样的风险资产。

Bitcoin Holds Steady Ahead of FOMC Meeting

比特币在FOMC会议上保持稳定

Bitcoin has held steady around the $82,000 support level for a week, showing a minor 1.3% change and no signs of volatility ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.

比特币在一周的82,000美元支持水平上保持稳定，显示出1.3％的变化1.3％，没有在周三联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之前发生波动的迹象。

The FOMC meeting is crucial for the financial markets, as decisions on interest rates and monetary policy directly impact investor sentiment and market liquidity.

FOMC会议对金融市场至关重要，因为关于利率和货币政策的决策直接影响投资者的情绪和市场流动性。

Market expectations are high that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%.

市场期望很高，即美联储将使利率保持不变在4.25％至4.50％之间。

The CME FedWatch tool, which tracks market expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, shows a 99% probability that no rate cuts will be announced.

CME FedWatch工具跟踪市场对未来美联储利率决策的期望，显示99％的可能性将宣布降低利率。

With no rate cut expected, Bitcoin's price is likely to continue its current sideways trajectory.

由于预期的税率降低，比特币的价格可能会继续其当前的侧面轨迹。

Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed, Says Trader

交易员说，比特币底部证实

However, not all crypto market participants are bearish.

但是，并非所有加密市场参与者都是看跌。

Crypto trader Astronomer stated in a series of posts on X that Bitcoin's bottom is confirmed, expressing surprise that many reputable traders expected lower prices after Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $80,000 institutional level.

加密交易者天文学家在X上的一系列帖子中表示，比特币的底部得到了证实，这使人们感到惊讶，许多知名的交易者期望比特币短暂下跌低于80,000美元的机构水平。

According to Astronomer, Bitcoin has bottomed and reached its higher timeframe support of nearly $80,000.

根据天文学家的说法，比特币已经触底了，并获得了近80,000美元的较高时间范围的支持。

Despite recent declines, the trader remains bullish, predicting Bitcoin will reach $160K-$200K by the end of this cycle.

尽管最近下降了，但交易者仍然看涨，预计到本周期结束时，比特币将达到16万美元至20万美元。

Astronomer believes Bitcoin's current price action mirrors the parabolic advance seen in 2017, reinforcing his optimistic outlook.

天文学家认为，比特币目前的价格动作反映了2017年的抛物线进展，从而增强了他乐观的前景。

Why This Matters

为什么这很重要

Bitcoin struggles to climb as demand weakens and uncertainty grows, signaling a cautious market ahead.

随着需求减弱和不确定性的增长，比特币努力攀升，这表明面前一个谨慎的市场。