The XRP (XRP) market is flashing warning signs as a bearish technical pattern emerges on its weekly chart

XLM descending triangle pattern hints at 40% drop. Since its late 2024 rally, the XRP price chart has been forming a potential triangle pattern

The XRP (XRP) market is flashing warning signs as a bearish technical pattern emerges on its weekly chart, coinciding with macroeconomic pressures from anticipated US tariffs in April.

XRP descending triangle pattern hints at 40% drop

Since its late 2024 rally, the XRP price chart has been forming a potential triangle pattern on its weekly chart, characterized by a flat support level at around $1.32 and a downward-sloping resistance line.

A descending triangle pattern forming after a strong uptrend is seen as a bearish reversal indicator. As a rule, the setup resolves when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

As of March 28, XRP was testing the triangle’s support for a potential breakdown move. In this case, the price may fall toward the downside target at around $1.32 by April, presenting a potential 40% drop from current price levels.

XRP’s descending triangle target aligns closely with veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction, who anticipates a possible decline to as low as $1.07 due to a “textbook” head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: Peter Brandt

Conversely, a rebound from the triangle’s support level could lead the price toward its upper trendline at around $2.55. A clear breakout above this resistance level threatens to invalidate the bearish structures and send the price toward the previous high of $3.35.

Trump tariffs could amplify XRP sell-off

The broader market has grown increasingly cautious in response to President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto imports, set to take effect on April 3.

These tariffs are expected to result in higher prices for US manufacturers and consumers. The February 2025 US CPI report already showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem estimated that these tariffs might contribute approximately 1.2 percentage points to inflation, with about 0.5 percentage points stemming from direct effects and 0.7 percentage points from indirect effects.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates to a target range of 400–425 basis points in June has fallen to 55.7% as of March 28, a decrease from 67.3% a week earlier and 58.4% just one day ago.

Target rate probabilities for the June Fed meeting. Source: CME

A delayed rate cut would reduce the flow of capital into speculative markets, stalling the momentum for XRP and other digital assets that thrive in a low-rate, risk-on environment.