XRP Price Prediction: Mounting Pressure Could Drive XRP 20% Lower

The XRP price is under mounting pressure, with both technical and fundamental indicators pointing toward a significant downturn.

The price of XRP is coming under increasing pressure as technical and fundamental indicators point to a potential 20% drop. A symmetrical triangle pattern has emerged on the XRP/USD weekly chart, signaling a phase of indecision between buyers and sellers, which could result in a breakout or breakdown.

Historically, symmetrical triangles have led to significant price movements, with large rallies or sharp declines ensuing. For instance, during the 2018 crypto market crash, Ethereum formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which was followed by an 80% plummet from the breakout point.

If we apply the same logic to XRP, which is currently trading at $1.80, a bearish breakout would likely drive prices to $1.46. This price level coincides with the 50-week exponential moving average, adding another layer of technical relevance to this key support zone.

If the price of XRP breaks down from the symmetrical triangle, we could see a rapid selloff as traders react to this bearish development. In addition, the Trump administration recently clarified its stance on cryptocurrencies, which could put further downward pressure on XRP.

During a recent crypto summit at the White House, investors had expressed interest in learning which coins the administration is considering for the U.S. strategic crypto reserve.

While coins like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano were mentioned, there was no official endorsement from the Trump administration. Furthermore, there is no evidence to suggest that the U.S. government is investing in any altcoins.

On the other hand, the administration confirmed that the U.S. government has been accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) since 2024, and the current total BTC holdings are valued at $17.7 billion. This disparity in institutional investment could put additional downward pressure on XRP as it struggles to maintain relevance in the broader market.

The XRP/BTC pair is currently trading within a critical distribution zone, and the 200-week exponential moving average stands at 2,459 satoshis. A break below this key level could open the door for an even steeper decline in the XRP price, potentially pushing it toward 1,700 satoshis.

This scenario would exacerbate the bearish sentiment surrounding XRP and further widen the gap between XRP and Bitcoin in terms of institutional preference.

Another worrisome signal for XRP is the recent spike in trading volumes, which is unfolding in the midst of bearish market conditions. Crypto analyst Martunn notes that XRP is currently undergoing a distribution phase, with large investors (whales) engaging in a massive sell-off of their XRP holdings following a huge price rally.

Since November 2024, XRP has experienced a surge of 600%, which has attracted a wave of retail investors into the market. However, as of the third quarter of 2024, whale wallets holding more than 1 million XRP have seen their balances decrease.

Over the course of a year, these major investors have sold a significant portion of their XRP holdings, with their collective balance decreasing from 94.21 billion XRP to 90.21 billion XRP. This mass liquidation has effectively erased the post-election “Trump pump” gains that were crucial in fueling XRP’s price surge.

The decreasing whale accumulation suggests that major investors are positioning themselves for a potential downturn, increasing the likelihood of a correction toward the $1.46 support level. If this selling trend persists, it could lead to a liquidity crunch, exacerbating the downward price movement.

However, there is still a slight chance for a bullish breakout from the symmetrical triangle if the broader crypto market experiences a shift in technical trends. A renewed focus from major institutions, increased adoption rates, or positive regulatory developments could create the momentum needed to push prices upward.

Additionally, the price action of Bitcoin will be critical in determining the fate of XRP. If BTC manages to rally from current price levels, it could provide support for other cryptocurrencies like XRP and mitigate some of the expected downside risks.

But current technical indicators and fundamental factors suggest a bearish outlook for XRP. The symmetrical triangle pattern, the Trump administration’s stance on crypto, and the surge in XRP trading volume all point to a potential 20% drop in the coming weeks.

Investors should be prepared for increased volatility and monitor these technical and fundamental factors closely as XRP navigates these turbulent market conditions.