The XRP Price Is Facing Increasing Technical and Fundamental Pressure, Foreshadowing a Major Decline of 20%

The XRP price is facing increasing technical and fundamental pressure, foreshadowing a major decline of 20% in the very near future.

The price of XRP is facing increasing technical and fundamental pressure, foreshadowing a major decline of 20% in the very near future. Three decisive factors are clearly emerging, and the future of XRP may already be sealed. In light of these concerning signals, investors will need to exercise increased vigilance and anticipate possible scenarios to protect their positions.

3 factors indicating an imminent drop of 20% for XRP?

Ripple, besides being accused of manipulating the market on XRP sales, is under pressure as its cryptocurrency could face an imminent drop. Three key factors suggest a symmetrical triangle, the Trump factor, and a surge in volume.

A symmetrical triangle signaling a decline

On the weekly chart of XRP/USD, a symmetrical triangle has formed, signaling a phase of indecision between buyers and sellers. This type of configuration does not guarantee an upward trend and can lead to a bearish breakout.

According to technical analysis, symmetrical triangles are symmetrical patterns that typically form during a period of consolidation or indecision in the market. They are characterized by two converging lines of support and resistance, creating a triangular shape.

When the price breaks out of the triangle, it is said to be "pivoting," and the direction of the breakout can indicate the future trend. A breakout above the triangle's upper boundary usually leads to a continuation of the previous uptrend, while a breakout below the lower boundary signals a continuation of the previous downtrend.

However, in the case of XRP, the breakout is expected to be bearish, leading to a drop towards $1.46. This level corresponds to the 50-week exponential moving average and represents a 20% correction from the current price.

The Trump factor: Bitcoin favored, XRP neglected

The recent crypto summit at the White House dashed the hopes of Ripple investors. Many anticipated an inclusion of the token in a strategic reserve for the United States. However, the Trump administration clarified that the mentioned cryptos – Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and XRP – were only examples, not validated names.

Moreover, there is no evidence that the U.S. government holds any XRP, in stark contrast to Bitcoin, where the state reportedly possesses around $17.7 billion. In this context, the XRP/BTC pair is operating in a critical distribution zone, varying around the 200-2W EMA exponential moving average (2,459 satoshis).

A breakout below this level could lead to a drop towards 1,700 satoshis, further increasing the bearish pressure on XRP/USD.

A surge in volume synonymous with distribution

Another alarming signal is the sharp rise in XRP's transaction volumes, a phenomenon reminiscent of the bearish trend of 2021. According to analyst Martunn, Ripple is undergoing a distribution phase, where major investors (whales) are selling their holdings after a significant price increase.

Since November 2024, XRP has experienced a surge of 600%, attracting many individual buyers. However, the progressive liquidation of whale positions suggests a possible trend reversal.

Crypto wallets holding more than one million XRP have seen their balance drop from 94.21 billion to 90.21 billion XRP in one year, erasing the gains from the post-electoral "Trump pump."

If this trend continues, we could see a decrease in liquidity and an increase in selling pressure, ultimately leading to a major correction towards $1.46, thus validating the breakdown of the symmetrical triangle.

This scenario would also be consistent with the behavior of the 50-week exponential moving average, which has acted as a strong level of support and resistance in the past.

A truly inevitable drop?

Several indicators suggest an imminent drop for Ripple, but a bullish breakout of the symmetrical triangle is still possible if the overall crypto market regains strength. A resurgence of institutional interest, increased adoption, or a favorable regulatory announcement could reverse the trend.

Furthermore, if Bitcoin continues to rise, it could pull XRP along and mitigate the risk of a drop to $1.46.

The technical indicators, the evolution of political sentiment, and the dynamics of whales are thus converging towards a bearish outlook of 20% for XRP. Crypto investors must remain vigilant in the face of these signals and anticipate a potential market correction.