In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cleared the way for multiple spot bitcoin ( BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), followed by ethereum ( ETH) ETFs in July.
A new Polymarket wager is tracking a potential Stellar (XLM) exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in 2025, with the crypto economic intelligence platform plotting an 87% likelihood of greenlighting.
This estimate, which has amassed $54,666 in trading volume to date, reflects an incrementally lower confidence level compared to the previous day’s reading of 93%. Still, the prediction is nearing the highest probability since the bet’s inception.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cleared the way for multiple spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024, followed by ethereum (ETH) ETFs in July. These approvals marked pivotal moments for digital asset accessibility, aligning with broader shifts in regulatory scrutiny.
Since Donald Trump assumed the 47th presidency, a wave of alternative crypto asset ETF registrations has flooded the SEC’s pipeline, encompassing XRP, LTC, HBAR, SOL, ADA, MOVE, APT, DOT, and SUI.
The Polymarket wager on a XRP ETF now reflects an 87% probability of approval by 2025, as of March 23. This optimism surged after it was revealed that the SEC was dismissing its lawsuit against Ripple Labs, a decision that sharply elevated market expectations.
Separately, a Polymarket bet tracking a potential cardano (ADA) ETF approval in 2025 shows a 61% likelihood as of March 23. Grayscale submitted an application with the SEC for a spot ADA ETF.
Litecoin (LTC) is also on the platform, with a $33,577-traded bet showing a 68% probability of an LTC ETF approval as of March 23. Firms like Coinshares, Canary Capital, and Grayscale are competing to secure regulatory clearance for an LTC product.
Meanwhile, a solana (SOL) ETF proposal, backed by a $104,793-volume Polymarket wager, holds an 87% approval probability according to bettors. A roster of financial firms, including Vaneck, Grayscale, 21shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Canary, are seeking to debut a SOL ETF.
Notably, the prediction marketplace hosts no active bets for DOT, HBAR, MOVE, APT, or SUI ETFs. The growing interest in crypto ETFs highlights a pivotal shift toward mainstream adoption, driven by regulatory clarity and institutional backing.
